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We have updated modelling for case predictions, ICU occupancy, and hospital resource utilization over time in Ontario for COVID-19 to share. A thread:
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Over the past week we have seen the rate of growth in new daily cases of COVID-19 in Ontario increase from 4% to 6% per day. This may not sound like an important shift, but it has significant impact on the number of cases and impact on health system resources.
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In the following two epidemic curve scenarios we show what the numbers of new daily cases could look like if Ontario continues along at 3% daily growth or 5% daily growth. We do not consider effects of changes to restrictions in these curves.
New simulations of scenarios of potential hosp and ICU occupancy based on observed case trajectory in ON, potential reduced restrictions, & observations in European countries (🇧🇪,🇳🇱,🇩🇪, 🇬🇧, 🇫🇷):
cases will likely increase and meet 100/100k threshold by late Nov/early Dec
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In all scenarios, COVID-19 cases in ICU will exceed the 150-patient threshold above which surgical capacity is threatened.
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Takeaways: the status quo or a reduction in restrictions will likely lead to a subsequent growth in cases and strain on the healthcare system. #COVID19Ontario
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1/ We have updated our model and have predictions for Ontario’s second wave from the COVID-19-Modeling Collaborative. #onpoli#COVID19
2/ We considered 4 potential second wave epidemic curves, from best to worst: Ontario’s 1st wave, 2nd waves in Michigan and Victoria (peer jurisdictions), and Italy’s 1st wave.
3/ We considered three scenarios of risk for hospitalization among those infected: low-risk (fewer hospitalizations), average risk, and high-risk (more hospitalizations) based on observations of hospitalization rates in Ontario.