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Covid19MC Profile picture
@covid19mc
Jul 2, 2020 • 3 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Estimating #PPE demand in #AcuteCare? Check out our new easy-to-use App! covid-19-mc.ca/interactive-mo…
Fantastic collab with the amazing @HockeyAnalytics team!

@OntHospitalAssn @HQOntario @RNAO @UHN @UofT_dlsph @CIHI_ICIS @thetacollab @WHO #HowsMyFlattening
And of course, let us know how we can improve the PPE App to make it even more useful to you!
@DrKaliBarrett @yoshi_Go1 @tierasts @YasinAzimKhan @_StephenMac @ASPphysician @david_naimark @NathanStall @RaphaelXimenes @DomGalamini Jeff Goeree @MeghanChayka @BeateSander

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More from @covid19mc

Covid19MC Profile picture
Nov 12, 2020
1/8
We have updated modelling for case predictions, ICU occupancy, and hospital resource utilization over time in Ontario for COVID-19 to share. A thread:

#COVID19Ontario #onpoli
2/8
Over the past week we have seen the rate of growth in new daily cases of COVID-19 in Ontario increase from 4% to 6% per day. This may not sound like an important shift, but it has significant impact on the number of cases and impact on health system resources.
3/8
In the following two epidemic curve scenarios we show what the numbers of new daily cases could look like if Ontario continues along at 3% daily growth or 5% daily growth. We do not consider effects of changes to restrictions in these curves.
Read 8 tweets
Covid19MC Profile picture
Nov 5, 2020
New simulations of scenarios of potential hosp and ICU occupancy based on observed case trajectory in ON, potential reduced restrictions, & observations in European countries (🇧🇪,🇳🇱,🇩🇪, 🇬🇧, 🇫🇷):

cases will likely increase and meet 100/100k threshold by late Nov/early Dec

1/4
In all scenarios, COVID-19 cases in ICU will exceed the 150-patient threshold above which surgical capacity is threatened.

2/4
Takeaways: the status quo or a reduction in restrictions will likely lead to a subsequent growth in cases and strain on the healthcare system.
#COVID19Ontario

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Covid19MC Profile picture
Sep 25, 2020
1/ We have updated our model and have predictions for Ontario’s second wave from the COVID-19-Modeling Collaborative. #onpoli #COVID19
2/ We considered 4 potential second wave epidemic curves, from best to worst: Ontario’s 1st wave, 2nd waves in Michigan and Victoria (peer jurisdictions), and Italy’s 1st wave.
3/ We considered three scenarios of risk for hospitalization among those infected: low-risk (fewer hospitalizations), average risk, and high-risk (more hospitalizations) based on observations of hospitalization rates in Ontario.
Read 9 tweets

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