Thread by @BigManBakar

The Review GW 32+: A thread

Hi everyone! Confused with what transfer(s) to make? I present to you this week’s “The Review” with a view of bringing clarity to your transfer thoughts ahead of GW33+:

#FPL #FPLCommunity

(Raw data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with permission)

1) Man City have recorded the most big chances of all sides since the restart, and have an amazing fixture run on the horizon. For starters, they are up against a Southampton side who have conceded the highest amount of goals at home this season. This begs the question, who...

...is the Man City asset to get this week? I’ve tried second guessing Pep Guardiola numerous times only to end up with an egg of my face virtually almost every time but here I go again. I scoured the City forums and the significant majority expect Riyad Mahrez to start...

...The fact that he started all four games back to back after the restart including the FA Cup game and then got rested vs Liverpool makes me think that he should be safe for the next few games. Should being the key word here. There is no doubting his FPL...

...credentials though – in the league games he has started this season, he is averaging ∼8.13 FPL points per game. Phil Foden is another one who tempts me at £5.3. With Leroy Sane now out of the picture, Foden should get plenty of game time...

...on the left wing where he has averaged an incredible 14 FPL points in two games so far since the restart.

2) Son with Kane under Mourinho:

Minutes per shots in the box = ∼70.45
Minutes per big chance = 387.5
FPL points/game = ∼5.67

Son without Kane under Mourinho:

Minutes per shots in the box = 25
Minutes per big chance = 75
FPL points/game = 6.6

...I talked about the “Son plays better without Kane” theory last week. Here I talk about it in more detail, and with the further evidence of what I witnessed against Sheffield United. The eye test was in line with the numbers. The heat maps too suggest...

...that Heung Min Son was hogging the left side with minimal involvement centrally in the penalty area box which is where you’d want your premium assets to be. As a Son owner, I feel lucky to have earned 12 points in two games and I’m thinking of abandoning ship...

...due to the reasons given above. Harry Kane meanwhile, looks to be Spurs’ main threat. Him and Martial have accumulated the highest big chances per game in the league since the restart.

3) Who is my GW33+ captain? I’m set on Salah this week. Salah is averaging an incredible 11 FPL points at home against the bottom five this season. Villa is the only team he hasn’t faced at home out of the bottom five and in the other games at Anfield against the rest he...

...has scored 12,7,9 and 16 FPL points respectively. Who would I captain if I owned both Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané? I would still captain Salah primarily because he’s a beast at home. Since the restart, Salah has had twice the number of shots inside the box as Mané. Over...

...the course of the season, Salah has the highest xGi (expected goal involvement) of all players in the league at home.

4) Bruno Fernandes recorded his first big chance from open play in a Man United shirt against Brighton. Rashford and Martial were quiet, recording no shots in the box. Mason Greenwood’s stats weren’t great yet he scored a great amount of FPL points. Over his two starts, he...

... hasn’t registered a big chance but created a clear-cut goal for Bruno with a brilliant cross. His catch is his value though, at £4.4m he’s a cheap route into the United attack. United are now up against an out of sorts Bournemouth side where I would fully expect the...

...cavalry to be amongst the points yet again. Will Fernandes continue to outscore Rashford and Martial? I would think the Brighton game was the exception rather than a new norm - past trends show that Rashford and Martial will be involved more regularly...

...which is why I’m hesitant on putting the armband on a Man United asset this week fearing that points might be spread.

5) Just five shots inside the box at ∼44 mins per shot inside the box and zero big chances registered over four appearances is extremely uncharacteristic of a Man City striker. Gabriel Jesus has been peripheral in terms of FPL goal involvement,and it is not hard to understand...

...why. The points and the key FPL performance indicators are all seem to be hogged by City’s midfielders, hence even at £9.6m Jesus is coming across as overpriced. Since the restart...

...14 Premier League players have recorded more shots in the box than him while 63 players have registered more big chances than him.

6) I have seen a lot of Pulisic vs Willian debates doing the rounds on social media and fantasy football websites. I played around with the numbers and came to the conclusion that just because Willian outscored Pulisic this GW doesn't necessarily mean he's the better pick:

...Over the season,

Christian Pulisic vs Willian

Minutes per shots in the box: 33 v 59
Minutes per big chance: 117 v 366
Minutes per big chance created: 430 v 200

...From the data it is evident that Pulisic has the great goal threat and Willian has the better assist potential. I prefer Pulisic, because even to the eye test he seems more involved and ends up in more threatening positions often playing as a second striker. Of all players...

...in the league, only Salah has a better minute per goal involvement ratio than him at home over the season. Pulisic is FPL gold when he starts.

7) Another midfielder who has caught my eye recently is West Ham’s Michail Antonio. No player has recorded more big chances in the league than Antonio has over the past 6 GW's. With doubts over Haller's match fitness, there is a good chance that he continues up front...

... With ownership under 1% and a fixture run beginning with a potentially Lascelles less Newcastle side followed by Burnley, Norwich and Watford, he can prove to be a bargain at just £6.9m.

8) Danny Ings has registered just one big chance over the past three games and despite having an accumulated xG over this period of 0.85, he has managed to score thrice. He is a clinical finisher and looks to be in the form of his life, but to score twice against Watford...

...this GW with a xG of 0.10 was freakish. This might be unpopular opinion but this suggests overperformance and with City, Everton and United next, I would not recommend investing. Everton and United have been solid so far, but to my massive surprise City have conceded...

...the highest amount of big chances per game of any Premier League club since the restart. So, if you’re an Ings owner, keep him. No big chances recorded meanwhile, in what were two winnable fixtures against Burnley and Southampton sums Watford up...

...Ismaïla Sarr’s back to back blanks coincide with his numbers - with the Senegalese international registering just one shot inside the box over these past two games.

9) Big chances

(Since the Premier League restart)

Norwich/Bournemouth 1
Everton/Brighton/Palace 2
Leicester/Wolves/Watford/Burnley/Sheffield 3

These statistics explain exactly why two popular FPL picks, Dominic Calvert Lewin and Raúl Jiménez haven’t hauled big thus far...

...No big chance created by the Everton team from open play against Norwich and Leicester is partly why Calvert Lewin has registered back to back blanks. He was thriving under Ancelotti because of the quality chances being supplied to him but for now the supply has been shut...

... I would recommend owners to keep him though, as Everton are now up against a Spurs side who contrary to popular opinion are one of the worst sides for xGc since Mourinho has taken over – they are ranked fifth from bottom for xGc over this period...

... Same goes for Jiménez, for now Wolves seem heavily dependent on Adama Traore for creativity but once they start creating more freely, Jiménez can haul big given his favorable fixtures.

10) Another superb display by the Wolves defence this GW means that Wolves have now kept 7 clean sheets in their previous 8. I wrote last week about the influence Boly has had on their defence, hence with his return their recent form comes across as no surprise as shown below:

...Big chances per game conceded:

(GW25 onwards)

Wolves: 0.75
Man United: 1
Everton/Palace: 1.25
Brighton: ∼1.38
Burnley: ∼1.63
Chelsea/Leicester: 1.75
Man City: ∼1.88

Those numbers are nothing short of elite. Villa meanwhile, continued to struggle. Just one shot in the box and no big chances created by Grealish over four games since the league has restarted is party why Villa have one of the lowest xG's from open play...

...Villa's xG from set plays, however, since the restart is ∼3.23 – to put it into context, the average xG from set plays for Premier League teams since the restart is ∼0.94.

11) Jamie Vardy

GW 1-21
Shots in the box per game: ∼2.32
Big chances per game: ∼1.21

GW 22 onwards
Shots in the box per game: 1.20
Big chances per game: 0.20

...Those numbers tell their own story. Vardy’s stats have gone completely downhill off late, which is in line with Leicester’s form as a whole. Leicester are just not...

...creating enough – pre GW 21, Leicester were ranked third for big chances creating ∼2.71 big chances per game but post GW 21 they are eleventh for the same, creating ∼1.64 big chances per game. They are a side low on confidence.

12) Burnley’s clean sheet against Crystal Palace was the tenth occasion out of thirteen when Nick Pope earned bonus points when Burnley have kept a clean sheet. That is remarkable consistency, and with Pope averaging ∼5.20 FPL points per appearance at home...

... this season, there is every chance he hauls at the weekend again. Sheffield United have the worst xG away from home this season, and will be coming up against a resolute Burnley side with the highest number of clean sheets at home this season.

Computations and analysis my own. If you are looking to follow more of my content:

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Thank you for taking the time out to read patiently, all the best for GW33+!