Thread by @BigManBakar

The Review : GW 7 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to the latest edition of The Review. Here’s an overview of how things stand in the FPL stratosphere at the moment: #FPL

1) Teemu Pukki’s points per game at home vs points per game away (~13 v 3.25) clearly needs further introspection. When I delve deep into the data, the statistics show that this variation in points is self-explanatory. At home, Pukki is averaging...

...4 shots inside the box per game (to 1.75 away), ~1.75 big chances per game (to 0.5 away) and 0.75 big chances created per game (to 0 away). Pukki’s xGi (expected goal involvement) at home of ~86 mins (to ~274 mins away) further explains this glaring disparity.

2) As someone who follows numbers very closely, the stark contrast I notice in Wolves 19/20 v Wolves 18/19 from a defensive point of view is very worrying. Wolves have conceded triple the number of big chances this season than they did at this stage last season (12 v 4), hence...

...the xGc (expected goals conceded) has nearly doubled (5.5 to ~10). Shots in the box conceded have also witnessed an alarming rise of ~46% (39 to 57). Whether this is down to the Europa League or second season syndrome, this is a problem that needs to be addressed very quickly.

3) This seems to have become a regular feature of my articles, but I can’t seem to stop myself from raving about Manchester City’s attacking numbers.With De Bruyne having already created double the number of big chances than anyone else has done this season, their attack seems...

...to be on a completely different level right now. If you think their attack was frightening last year, then this season they have already recorded ~30% more big chances than they did at this stage last season - which could be put down to De Bruyne’s unreal creativity as...

...suggested above. Sterling still is ranked top for big chances in midfielders and has by far the best xGi (expected goal involvement) of all midfielders in the league. With Wolves’ defensive frailties highlighted earlier...

...the City attacking options are primed to haul and hence are in my opinion, the best captaincy options for GW 8.

4) Missing big chances seems to be the flavor of the month. If you’ve just had an appalling GW, look away - this isn’t for the faint hearted! Abraham had 3 big chances against Brighton, but was wasteful in front of goal which means that he has now missed all 5 of his previous...

... 5 big chances. Callum Wilson’s conversion rate for a change regressed to the mean, with the Bournemouth forward finally missing a big chance that came his way. Like Abraham, he had 3 big chances come his way too and was unlucky not to haul like his numbers suggested.

5) At the other end of the spectrum lie Chris Wood and Dominic Calvert Lewin who have now scored in each of their previous two games, which comes as no surprise to me having seen their recent numbers. Both Wood and Calvert Lewin are joint top for big chances over their past...

... two matches for all forwards. Aguero is the only forward who rivals the duo for xGi (expected goal involvement) over this period. Both will fancy their chances when Burnley meet Everton at the weekend.

6) They say that every light has a shadow and if Chris Wood is the light, then Ashley Barnes has been the shadow. While Chris Wood has accumulated 5 big chances over the past 2 GW’s, Barnes hasn’t recorded a single one over the past 4...

...Their numbers seem to be heading in different polar directions, and with so many forwards putting forward a case for selection in our FPL teams, Barnes might be on borrowed time.

7) Newcastle's xG (expected goals scored) of 0.05 in their 5-0 loss vs Leicester was the lowest to be recorded in a single game this season. Newcastle is a prime fixture for FPL managers to target for clean sheets right now, with Newcastle having by far the lowest xG of all...

... teams this season. They also remain the only team in the Premier League not to have recorded a xG of >~1 in any of the 7 games so far. Leicester, meanwhile continue to impress defensively and are now ranked best for xGc (expected goals conceded), big chances conceded...

... and shots in the box conceded over the season, which is all the more impressive given their opening early fixtures.

8) Another team which is showing signs of improvement defensively is Chelsea, who are ranked best for xGc (expected goals conceded) and shots in the box conceded over the past 2 GW’s. Options are a plenty in the Chelsea defence, with Tomori a bargain at £4.6m and the...

... full backs offering attacking threat. Azpilicueta, as highlighted last week continued to impress and created a big chance against Brighton. He also has the best minutes per baseline bps ratio of all Chelsea defenders over the past 2 GW’s so is likely to get bonus...

... whenever Chelsea are to keep a clean sheet. Alonso, meanwhile also created a big chance and was unlucky not to score from a big chance himself.

Data taken from UnderStat and FFScout. Thanks for taking the time out to read patiently, I hope you enjoyed the read! Lastly, with a heavy heart, I’d like to announce that real life commitments are such that I will unfortunately struggle to find the time to compile a...

...thread in October and November, so The Review is temporarily taking a two-month hiatus before I am back to writing again in December. Having said that, I will continue to post whatever little bits of information I find interesting on my Twitter handle - thanks for the love!