The Review : GW 16 - A thread
Greetings everyone, welcome to the latest edition of The Review. With the hectic festive schedule almost upon us, I hope that this summary of important takeaways is helpful for FPL managers in setting their team up for this crucial period: #FPL
Greetings everyone, welcome to the latest edition of The Review. With the hectic festive schedule almost upon us, I hope that this summary of important takeaways is helpful for FPL managers in setting their team up for this crucial period: #FPL
1) There’s only one place to begin. Jamie Vardy. The Leicester man has notched 13 times in his previous 10 PL games and remarkably seems to be replicating his 15/16 form. In that particular season, Vardy notched 13 times in 11 PL games between GW 4 and GW 14...
...Comparing the two incredible runs: While his volume of shots inside the box per min in his current run is worse off than his run in 15/16 (33 mins per SITB now as compared to 23 mins per SITB in 15/16), Brendan Rodgers seems to have transformed his playing style in such...
...a way that the quality of chances that he is now getting is actually significantly better off than in 15/16 (55 mins per big chance now than 73 mins in 15/16).
2) I have been so awestruck by Vardy’s numbers that I’m allocating yet another one of my key points to the Leicester front man. While in my first point I discussed Vardy 19/20 v Vardy 15/16, here I discuss the Vardy of the past 4 GW’s v the Vardy of the rest of this season...
...Vardy’s xGi (expected goal involvement) over the past 4 GW’s is such that no forward is yet to better that statistic over 4 completed GW’s this season. Astonishingly, Vardy has accumulated ≈60% shots inside the box and 50% big chances over just the past 4 GW’s than what he...
...managed in the first 12 GW’s combined. The way the Leicester team is feeding Vardy off late is scarily similar to what I’d do having bought a shiny new toy on my FIFA Ultimate Team trying to justify my investment, i.e Make.Him.Score!
3) Bournemouth’s xG of 0.15 was the best xGc (expected goals conceded) Liverpool have managed to record in a single PL game this season. Liverpool are still ranked best for xGc over the season, but their defensive assets have annoyingly managed to concede once in most games...
...this season in what has been a frustrating period for their owners. They now face a Watford side which has accumulated the fewest big chances on the road this year, so there is a good chance that Liverpool can record back to back clean sheets for the first time this season.
4) While he is being sold in droves off late, it is important to note that other than Vardy, no forward has managed to accumulate as many shots inside the box over the past 4 GW’s as Raul Jimenez. During this period, Jimenez is also top for big chances created and penalty area...
...touches for forwards. Wolves’ attack is structured in a way which allows everything to go through Jimenez, hence it comes as no surprise that no other forward in the PL has managed to record even half the number of big chances created as Jimenez has over the past 4 GW’s.
5) 5 corners taken over his last 3 appearances by Leicester’s Ben Chilwell was the first time he has taken set pieces this season. While this might appear to be on paper a minor, inconsequential detail for FPL managers the effect it has on Leicester’s defensive assets is...
... far reaching. What it means is that Chilwell is likely to create more chances and record more baseline BPS, and hence in all likelihood will get more bonus than the other defenders whenever Leicester are to record a clean sheet...
...This will directly impact Söyüncü the most, who had the best baseline BPS for Leicester defenders before Chilwell was on corners.
6) Even though the sample size is relatively small, I think it is imperative for FPL managers to analyze the effect that Mourinho has had on Spurs’ FPL assets. Defensively, the numbers show signs of gradual improvement. While the shots inside box conceded have decreased from...
...≈10 per game to 8 per game now, it is in the big chances conceded category where the progress has been most glaring. No team has conceded fewer big chances since Mourinho has taken over.
7) Moving on to the attacking assets, statistically Alli and Son have shown the most signs of improvement -as has been reflected in their FPL points. Remarkably, Alli has already accumulated more big chances under Mourinho than he managed to do so in the first 12 GW’s combined...
...Notably, Alli is also enjoying a higher average position which could be put down to a tactical tweak by Mourinho in which he has decided to deploy Alli in a position closer to the striker contrary to the deep lying position where he was playing under Pochettino.
8) Which also brings me to the point that Son has created double the amount of big chances than any other midfielder has done over the past 4 GW’s. Further, Son has already created thrice the amount of big chances in 4 games under Mourinho than he did in the first 12 games...
...under Pochettino. Despite his performance vs Burnley, it is interesting to note that Harry Kane’s penalty area touch per min ratio has alarmingly worsened from ≈17 per minute under Pochettino to ≈28 per minute under Mourinho...
...Further, Kane is now averaging 72 per minute for shots inside the box as compared to ≈47 per minute under Pochettino.
Raw data taken from UnderStat and @FFScout . Computations and analysis my own. A big thank you to everyone for taking the time out to read - I await your feedback. Best of luck for GW 17, may your arrows be green!
