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If you think $TSLA is insanity, look at $NIO. Has a negative (!) 6-9% gross margin (on each car produced!), massively indebted, having sold ~3k cars in June for a record, yet "worth" more than Nissan or Peugeot-Citroen, or twice Renault.

$NIOQ $TSLAQ
In a perfectly normal 27% range today.

Up 150% in 2 weeks.
Who would have thought...
Can't stop, won't stop (until it will).
Why not? Only up 150% plus change in 2 weeks.
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fly4dat
@fly4dat
1/ #Tesla has earned ~$.5B from green credits in the last 2 years and $354M already this year in Q1, yet couldn't turn a profit for 4 consecutive quarters. What does COVID-19 has to do with this?

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ Europe is currently the 2nd largest market for BEV's, and with the ~20-50% growth seen in most country markets in 1-5/2020, it's growing rapidly despite the virus. It's tough to see clearly how China looks like, but it's probably flattish.
3/ Tesla earns most of its green credits via their FCA pooling agreement in Europe. FCA is merging with PSA, and, as of December 2019, they've planned to achieve CO2 compliance without the current pooling agreement with Tesla.
Read 15 tweets
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fly4dat
@fly4dat
1/ In Germany🇩🇪, and Germany only, you can only buy a single Model 3 version: the Model 3 2020. There are no SR+, LR and Perf versions.

Oh, wait, there are. These are all options to the base Model 3 2020. Sounds sus? It's Occam's #Tesla, bro.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ It's because the net price of the base model (w/o options) shall be below €40k to be eligible for the €6k subsidy, which is to be increased to €9k soon. €3k is to be covered by the OEM, another €3k (soon to be €6k, retroactively!) is covered by the state.
3/ That means that with this "Model 3 2020" in Germany, all Model 3's are eligible for the subsidy of €3k.
Read 10 tweets
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fly4dat
@fly4dat
1/ 1st $TSLA ship this Q went to APAC instead of Europe, as everyone expected*.

The second ship? When is there going to be a second ship? Both candidates are far away from the port, doing nothing (h/t @TESLAcharts).

$TSLAQ
2/ * Shipments to Europe are the firsts because it takes longer to ship to Europe. This is the Musk way of managing Cash Flow: fill distant locations first, near ones the last, so EOQ cash will look good, helped by ABL.
3/ I have a theory that Musk will kitchen sink EU Q2, blame it on COVID and try to get away with it. As the markets stand, he might succeed.

Read 9 tweets

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