Thread by @Darky999

US #COVID cases tend to peak on Thursdays and Fridays, over recent weeks this is consistent, and we just had a new high (according to worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…) on a Wednesday of just over 60k

It's plausible we see 70k this week

1/N

US Deaths tend to peak on Tuesdays (perhaps a consistent) lag from weekend, and we did see a peak this week of 993, which is the highest for 4 weeks

Deaths on Wed 8th were the second highest for 4 weeks

2/N

The narrative of 'infection rate is irrelevant because death rate is falling fast' is starting to have cracks in it

Which was pretty obvious as there is a known 3-4 week lag from case identification to death

It's true treatments have improved...

3/N

...the estimates I heard from a few Doctors (I think i'll believe the Doctors on this one) is that this better treatment might lead to 25% fewer deaths vs how people were treated in April

This is great if it's the case, but it's not solving the problem unfortunately :/

4/N

The economy has already slowed down again, so the econ data that really matters is July/Aug/Sept which is neatly all Q3 data

The 'V' recovery was always a silly narrative (the stock market is not the economy...), but now it's just a dead narrative

5/N

Again, as I have said many times, this doesn't mean stocks will go down, they might, they might not, really no one knows. Honestly no one knows - except some think they know ;)

6/N

@biotequity said he is expecting 100k cases in US fairly soon, this is plausible for sure

But sooner or later CA, AZ, TX, FL etc will get a handle on this wave (people are wearing masks more, and going out less)

So I don't expect anything much north of 100k in this wave

7/N

BUT... Then the summer will end and people will be back inside all over the country, and the virus will have an even larger 'seeding' across the country :/

Which, could mean 100k / day looks small compared to what then happens...

8/N

This isn't fear-mongering, it's just objectively clear the US has a problem and if everyone who has close contact with others does their part, wears a mask, washes hands, and acts sensibly then this won't happen

That's all that is required, the economy can be open...

9/N

...economy just needs to be shut very tactically and locally if there are out of control towns/cities/counties etc

So US will recover, but the longer these cases linger, the longer it will take to get confidence back

10/N

..and longer confidence takes to come back, the longer the economy will take to slowly come back to Q4 2019 levels

It's not a hard equation to grasp

11/N

If you are a Trump supported you should be desperate for the economy to improve faster, so you should be doing all you can to prevent spread of COVID, so being 'anti mask' is quite literally harming the one cause you care about most - which is Trump winning in November

12/N

Think about it without a partisan hat on

Think about it with a partisan hat on

Your actions are the same either way...

13/N

So paradoxically the Dems should be doing anything they can do NOT let the economy recover quickly, and to slow it down further - that is if their #1 desire is for Biden to win in Nov

Pelosi is gonna make the stimulus political at some point, she has to

14/N

Bottom line, please stay safe, keep fighting the fight against COVID, and keep asking the #COVIDIOTS to explain their rationale (keep calm, and let them dig their own holes... they are good at this)

The world will get thru this, it's just gonna take years :/

15/N