Sometimes, American politics is complicated. Right now, it's extremely simple: the public has reached a harshly negative judgment of the president's handling of the most important issue facing the country, and the issue is so paramount that there's little room to wiggle out of it
When I'm thinking about how the race could change--say, return to Biden+6--I'm thinking about whether those conditions change. Does coronavirus subside or become less salient? Does the public's view of the president's handling improve; or, first, does POTUS change his handling?
Today, these possible sources for change seem very distant. Cases are increasing and it is at least possible that deaths will surge again. Yet Trump remains focused on other issues and his demand for a return to normal seems grounded in the assumption that COVID isn't serious
Earlier in the crisis it was commonplace to compare COVID to a wartime threat. Politically, the analogy has some merit: it's hard to think of anything other than war/terrorism that has so easily supplanted the economy as the most important issue.
If you're struggling to make sense of how Trump has fallen so far, and how he could fall further, then take this analogy further: imagine that this was the president's handling of an actual armed conflict?
COVID is *not* WW2. But the comparison is illuminating. His early comments read like Chamberlain. His fights with govs are like haggling over whether Hawaii should buy defenses for Pearl Harbor. His economy position is like being worried that rationing will hurt civilian economy.
None of this was inevitable. The same war that cost Chamberlain power made Churchill a world historic figure. Indeed, many governors and world leaders are quite popular right now. That includes officials who handled COVID quite poorly, just as Churchill often handled WW2 poorly
Since there's a new book out comparing Churchill/Trump, I'll posit that there's a book to write comparing Cuomo/Churchill but, in a surprising turn, arguing that they were both terrible lol
The point is: Trump could have been in a vastly stronger political position, even with COVID/economy just as bad.
At this point, improvement would involve a change in either conditions or his conduct. At the moment, I don't see good signs for him on either front. 4 months to go.
At this point, improvement would involve a change in either conditions or his conduct. At the moment, I don't see good signs for him on either front. 4 months to go.
And as in WW2, the inaction positions work against their intent. The do nothing/live with it view is basically appeasement that ensures COVID spreads to an extent we can't live with. Dealing with COVID helps the economy, just as war production helped the economy despite rationing
