David's figure is based on @homebase_data. This is July's CPS reference week. **If** predictive, it's presaging stall of last two months' EPOP improvement.
And that is low. EPOP each of the last 3 months has been below U.S historic low from the prior 72 years on record.
And that is low. EPOP each of the last 3 months has been below U.S historic low from the prior 72 years on record.
Failure to beat virus keeps economy on its knees.
The share of U.S. adults employed fell by 1.0 percentage point between the June CPS reference and the week ending July 7, according to the Census #HouseholdPulseSurvey. Here are changes by state. 
Similar story of stalled employment rise in @KronosInc
data after late June until week ending July 12.
data after late June until week ending July 12.
Oh man. The #HouseholdPulseSurvey is screaming bad labor market news. This is the best evidence available.
The estimated employment to population ratio in the U.S. was 51.7% in the week ending July 14, per Census #HouseholdPulseSurvey.
Down 2.6 pp since June #JobsReport week.
Map shows estimated employment rates by state averaging over 2 weeks to 7/14 to reduce noise.
Down 2.6 pp since June #JobsReport week.
Map shows estimated employment rates by state averaging over 2 weeks to 7/14 to reduce noise.
How have employment rates changed by state?
This map shows each state's change between two different two-week periods: from the 2 weeks ending in the June #JobsReport week June 16 to the most-recent 2 weeks available ending July 14.
This map shows each state's change between two different two-week periods: from the 2 weeks ending in the June #JobsReport week June 16 to the most-recent 2 weeks available ending July 14.
Did states with faster growth of #coronavirus confirmed case rates (horizontal) also experience faster decline in employment rates (vertical)?
Here's the raw data.
Here's the raw data.
States with faster growth of coronavirus case rates do seem to be experiencing faster declines in employment rates.
The relationship is strong when you weight states by their population. The simple regression coefficient p-value is 0.031 and R^2 = 0.09.
The relationship is strong when you weight states by their population. The simple regression coefficient p-value is 0.031 and R^2 = 0.09.
However, @KronosInc data from their clients' time clocks is not pointing to collapse in the labor market. The number of shifts worked is up a bit since mid-June. The final week here ends 7/19.
Points to significantly slower growth, rather than reversal.
kronos.com/resources/work…
Points to significantly slower growth, rather than reversal.
kronos.com/resources/work…
@KronosInc does show a trend down in hiring and up slightly in terminations.
Small business revenue is down between mid-June and mid-July per @OppInsights. Compared to Jan 2020, revenue was down
14.4% on June 14
19.2% on July 11, most recent data.
14.4% on June 14
19.2% on July 11, most recent data.
Short answer, evidence points to yes. Longer answer, see my quote below.
Seasonal adjustments likely to add about 1 million to NFP & to the EPOP numerator (=0.4 pp) in July #JobsReport, if I understand @ernietedeschi correctly.
This rough seasonal adjustment gives a 1.0-2.2 pp decline in 18+ EPOP in HPS, instead of 1.4-2.6.
This rough seasonal adjustment gives a 1.0-2.2 pp decline in 18+ EPOP in HPS, instead of 1.4-2.6.
After many weeks when an increasing share of small businesses reported increasing employee hours to mid-June (#JobsReport reference week), the share stopped increasing through late June.
Similarly, the share of small businesses that added employment in the prior week stopped increasing in mid-June too.
Outlook worsened. The share expecting that the business not return to its normal level operations within the next 6 months increased in late June.
Big deterioration of small business expectations in Florida.
