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Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
@CALonghurst
Jul 23, 2020 • 10 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - July 23, 2020

@UCSDHealth is now caring for 51 inpatients with #COVID19 including 21 on vents and 5 on ECMO. These individuals come from all over southern California, particularly @SanDiegoCounty and @ImperialCntyCA

ImageImage
2/ In a bit of bright news, with just 16 positive PCR results in the last 24 hours, the 7 day rolling average @UCSDHealth decreased to ~21 positive tests/day. This rate of ~2.3% is now the lowest across @UofCAHealth

Image
3/ Unfortunately, @SanDiegoCounty hit two grim milestones yesterday with over 25k #COVID19 cases (+587) and over 500 deaths. San Diegans over 70 yo represent only 17% of the cases but 87% of the deaths, and nearly all had underlying medical conditions.

countynewscenter.com/county-covid-1…
4/ Of the 505 COVID-19 deaths in @SanDiegoCounty, 291 (58%) were among the general population compared to 214 (42%) in skilled-nursing facilities. “The increasing number of deaths outside of congregate facilities is a sign that the virus continues to be widespread” Dr. Wooten Image
5/ Similarly, California has now surpassed 400,000 overall cases. Headlines have highlighted CA pulling ahead of NY, but note that NY has reported more than 32,000 deaths, while California is approaching 8,000 #CurveFlattened

nytimes.com/2020/07/23/us/…
6/ It’s tough to know which state has actually had more total infections. Seroprevalence studies show actual infections from late March to early May were 6-24x higher than documented, with an average of 10x across multiple states in the US.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai… Image
7/ One critical question is what mutations in #SARSCoV2 will do to virulence. We have clear data showing that the virus is changing, but it is still unclear whether these changes are driving increased transmission, and very hard to research well.

sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/p… Image
8/ Hydroxychloroquine study of >500 patients across 55 hospitals in Brazil finds that "among patients hospitalized with mild-to-moderate Covid-19, the use of hydroxychloroquine did not improve clinical status at 15 days as compared with standard care."

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
9/ Really, America? Really? #WearAMask #WearAMaskPlease #WearADamnMask

wthr.com/article/news/i…
10/ Finally, yesterday was the first @UCSDHealth COVID Grand Rounds of our summer series of six talks. Catch up on Dr. Currier's great presentation below!

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More from @CALonghurst

Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Sep 24, 2023
Dr. Joseph Simone first published a set of maxims for understanding academic medical centers in 1999. They are so fundamental we often don’t know when we are stealing Joe’s lines.

Learn more about these famous aphorisms 🧵 (1/16) Image
Joe first published "Understanding Academic Medical Centers: Simone’s Maxims" as a Clinical Cancer Research editorial in September 1999 🧵 (2/16)

👉🏼 aacrjournals.org/clincancerres/…
Image
Highlights of Simone's Maxims - a 🧵(3/16)

Institutions Don’t Love You Back.

"One must keep in mind that institutional relationships are really with persons, who can and sometimes do love you back."

👉🏼 aacrjournals.org/clincancerres/…
Image
Read 16 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Jan 7, 2022
1/ COVID (San Diego) Chronicles - Jan 7, 2022

A possible sign of good news this morning? Our 7-day rolling average @UCSDHealth dropped for the first time to 14.1%. Patient, employee, and student rates are all down, tracking with @NMartinUCSD models

2/ Staffing continues to be a huge challenge with 730
@UCSDHealth health employees newly diagnosed with COVID in the last 7 days; we are managing day-to-day thanks to heroic team members stepping up to help
3/ With 1,414 @UCSanDiego students and 473 campus employees testing positive in the last 7 days, university leadership made the decision to extend virtual learning until late January 👏 sandiegouniontribune.com/news/education…
Read 4 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Jan 6, 2022
1/ COVID (San Diego) Chronicles - Jan 5, 2022

As we exceed 800 patients hospitalized with COVID across @SanDiegoCounty and 8000+ new cases just yesterday (!) how high will we go, and what's next?

A 🧵...
2/ According to @NMartinUCSD, who gave me permission to share her latest model, we will hit peak cases soon, but could see 1500-2500 hospitalizations across San Diego. My guess is that we will not exceed the 1800 of last winter, but time will tell 🏥🔮
3/ Yesterday @UCSDHealth set records for both the highest absolute total tests (almost 8k) and positive results (1,012) of the entire pandemic. On the bright side, the 12% positivity rate will actually drop the 7-day rolling average...
Read 5 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Jan 3, 2022
COVID Chronicles - Jan 2, 2022

@SanDiegoCounty has over 600 individuals hospitalized with COVID - 2nd highest in the state (see fox5sandiego.com/news/coronavir…). We are on a steep trajectory and will soon surpass the peak of last summer's hospitalizations. Why?🧵
2/ First, South Africa and the UK saw fewer hospitalizations with their omicron surge, but ~25% of local cases are still delta according to data from @K_G_Andersen, so we are experiencing a twindemic of sorts.
👉searchcovid.info/dashboards/omi…
3/ Second, most inpatients have not had 2 doses of vaccine, and almost none have received 3 doses. We will be changing the logic of the @UCSDHealth dashboard this week to show booster doses since this is more effective for severe disease
Read 6 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Dec 31, 2021
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 31, 2021

Remember 2 weeks ago when the wastewater signal predicted an "unprecedented" COVID surge? This is what it looks like @UCSDHealth today 📈

Unroll for NYE predictions for January (bad) and 2022 (good) 🔮

2/ Based on the steep rise and fall of the omicron surge in South Africa, many are predicting the same here. I am less optimistic because the @SanDiegoCounty surge is still ~25% delta, which will drive a longer duration with more hospitalizations 🏥

👉 searchcovid.info/dashboards/omi…
3/ The San Diego COVID surge is still ↑ with @UCSDHealth positivity rates at unprecedented levels, and @SDCountyHHSA reporting almost 6,000 (!) new cases yesterday. And we know this undercounts home testing...
👉 sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hh…
Read 9 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Dec 29, 2021
COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 29, 2021

1/ Y-axis changed just in time for a record high 638 positive tests (16% positivity rate) and a record high >10% 7-day rolling average @UCSDHealth
2/ We are beginning to see a spike in #COVID19 hospitalizations @UCSDHealth, which reflects infections from early or mid-December

👉🏻 cbs8.com/article/news/h…
3/ Virtually all hospitalizations @UCSDHealth for #COVID19 are still for delta variant; SEARCH Alliance data show that 30-35% of @SanDiegoCounty infections continue to be delta.
searchcovid.info/dashboards/omi…
Read 5 tweets

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