1/ @CathieDWood pushes the topic of Human RoboTaxis. Why? Because there are no RoboTaxis on the road and won't be any in the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, @ARKInvest continues to dump $TSLA while Cathie pumps on CNBC.
$TSLAQ
Meanwhile, @ARKInvest continues to dump $TSLA while Cathie pumps on CNBC.
$TSLAQ
2/ In April 2019, Musk, among other things, has announced RoboTaxis, when #Tesla was at the brink of bankruptcy and urgently needed to raise capital.
It's now a fact that Tesla production never got close to 10k/wk in 2019 and, in fact, half a year later it's still not there.
It's now a fact that Tesla production never got close to 10k/wk in 2019 and, in fact, half a year later it's still not there.
3/ There obviously isn't "feature complete self-driving" either. Musk has been promising this since 2015. He knows full well the power of FSD: it's the Holy Grail of cars: most ppl don't like to drive and would be happy to hand the task over to a robot.
nytimes.com/2015/03/20/bus…
nytimes.com/2015/03/20/bus…
4/ Demand for FSD is insane (only bottleneck is that some can't afford it). Well, there is another bottleneck: it doesn't exist, and, according to all industry experts, we won't even get close to Level 4 autonomy for many years to come, let alone Level 5.
5/ People fell for the RoboTaxi scam. Freefalling M3 demand has recovered on this claim.
See @zshahan3 of CleanTechnica (he also fell for the other scam, the appreciating asset one). Quote is from his RoboTaxi article.
See @zshahan3 of CleanTechnica (he also fell for the other scam, the appreciating asset one). Quote is from his RoboTaxi article.
6/ People were promsied $30k gross profit. Who would not spend $45-60k on $30k gross profit, especially if he, as most ppl, can't differentiate between gross and net profit?
7/ Ark "models" $1T ($1,000B or $1,000,000M) enterprise value for the RoboTaxi alone. This is the gist of their "model". With 155 days in the year to go, the RoboTaxi claim is obviously ridiculous, hence the idea of the Human Robotaxi.
8/ Of course, Human Robotaxis are no different from Uber, without Uber's expertise. I travel to the US once a year, take an Uber from the airport, and get surprised by the progress they make each year. Uber Pool being one example, which seems to be a moat (scale, route planning).
9/ (In fact, I try to take a Lyft instead, but it's all the same from this perspective). There are other moats around safety, food delivery, etc.
Still, Uber loses a shit ton of $$. Why would it be different for Tesla, with more expensive and less reliable cars = no experience?
Still, Uber loses a shit ton of $$. Why would it be different for Tesla, with more expensive and less reliable cars = no experience?
10/ Also, which affluent Tesla owner would like to become an Uber driver, in the middle of the pandemic? Or outside a pandemic: who on Earth would like to drive his Tesla for Uber-like prices, that hardly make up for the depreciation of $20k vehicles, let alone $50k ones?
11/ @TESLAcharts has the answer. Dump cars to a new entity, masking the lack of demand. Musk/Tesla will be that affluent owner, keeping production, "demand" and the Robotaxi dream alive. Just as the real product: share price.
12/ Expect a raise for this soon. But keep in mind: there has NOT been a single word about FSD or RoboTaxis in the secondary filing last May. It was for general corporate purposes, "only reserves", not to be held liable legally.
13/ But fly, this doesn't make sense! Why would Tesla start a $$ losing service? It will surely be profitable!
Hell, no. It doesn't need to be. With stagnant revenues, EV of $TSLA is ~$300k/car ever sold, at an ASP of ~$60k and a claimed margin of ~$12k.
Hell, no. It doesn't need to be. With stagnant revenues, EV of $TSLA is ~$300k/car ever sold, at an ASP of ~$60k and a claimed margin of ~$12k.
