Thread by @drpritch2

#COVID19 in #Ottawa this week: the case spike that started two weeks ago has levelled off, at a new higher plateau. Rt is dropping towards 1.0.

But we have three childcare outbreaks and children/teenagers are ~40% of the week's cases. 1/

First, the latest COVID19 Rt (reproduction rate) and case graph. 2/

Now, back to the discussion of children. There's unfortunately little discussion of what's driving this trend. Daycares largely opened in the week of June 12-19.

A few news articles:
ottawa.ctvnews.ca/three-staff-ca…

https://twitter.com/theresaboyle/status/1288113032657170432?s=20

3/

The graph I generated from Ottawa's data gives the best summary of this week's growth in child/teen cases: if you exclude the elderly hit by institutional outbreaks, the 0-19 age group was ~10% of cases through most of the pandemic. But that's grown to ~45% of cases this week. 4/

For those who want the "full picture" graphs, here's with/without the 80+ age group, and stacked vs. percent breakdown. 5/

Only a few of these directly involve the three daycares that had outbreak (i.e., 1 or more persons with COVID).

My hunch - based on no data - is that it's less daycare, perhaps more:
- in-family transmission
- "teenage/20yo babysitter / kids" transmissions

6/

The "in-family" transmission theory fits with the pattern I identified in last week's thread.

https://twitter.com/drpritch2/status/1286492959773528065?s=20

Or - from daycare to siblings.

7/end

https://twitter.com/drpritch2/status/1286492959773528065