In the UK, as in other parts Europe we are at an inflexion point in #COVID19 pandemic.Transmission & new cases of infection have increased. Social restrictions of the last 4mths have reduced transmission, but have not changed fundamentals of this virus. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
As we lift restrictions, transmission & new infections rise. We have to turn this increase around in the next 6 weeks Going into autumn & winter with the current or increasing transmission & we face the prospect of a return of the sort of epidemic we had in March-May.
We are at or beyond limit of lifting measures & face complex, difficult trade offs & priorities:Education, Workplaces,Public Transport,Social events,Mixing & Physical Distancing. Critical to continue:Hand-washing, wearing masks, maintaining physical distancing,Testing, T-T-I.
No simple solutions but have to include:Stop Transmission,Testing&Isolation,Real-time data,Local ownership of measures,Communication & Trust,Clinical care,protection #HCW & vulnerable,Preparation of NHS, Care Homes,Schools,Workplaces & honest debate about priorities & trade offs.
The decisions,preparation & implementation over next 6wks are crucial to what happens autumn/winter. Resurgence not inevitable,transmission can be reduced, schools,work places can reopen equitably - but only if right actions taken now & transmission reduced over next 6wks
And have to change fundamentals of virus,clinical impact & transmission.That means investment-public health,clinical care,behaviour & social issues,diagnostic,treatment, vaccines & in supporting jobs & economy. Restrictions buy time & mitigate impact they are not an exit strategy
