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1/ An awesome thread from @JonBryant421 on FCA's credit situation, that is almost all of Tesla's credit revenue. There is very little to add about Europe.

2/ Here are the #'s summarized. Note that w/o $140M deferred rev recognition in Q2, credit revenue would have been $288M in Q2. This $140M has been paid for as an advance or similar in 19Q1.
3/ FCA's commitment changes this year vs Tesla's revenues show a $7M difference. That could be rounding error, exchange rate mismatch, sales of US credits to someone else or China (or a mix). I've estimated $8M from China in Q1. Could be a coincidence.

4/ BofAML tried to get info about the EU/US split of reg credit spend from FCA. This info seems to be protected by an extreme strict NDA, and judging from FCA's openness on other credit-related topics, this isn't due to them. Look at the dynamics of this convo.
5/ FCA still has $941M to pay in the next 6 quarters. Assume 2/3 of that still this year. Add ~$40-$60M from China for 20H2, ~0 from the US and certainly $0 from Europe.
6/ Expect similar or slightly higher rates from China going into 2021, ~1/3 of that $941M from FCA in Europe and US, and very little if any from others in the US (and zero from Europe). That's 20-25% lower than in 2019 and ~40% lower than in 20H1 alone.
7/ I'm still amazed by how terrible a deal FCA had cut. Maybe I should think more about pizza.

There are no other similarly gullible OEM's in sight. The $TSLA credit story will shrink big in 2021 and disappear from 2022 after a huge run in 2020, solely due to FCA.
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