The @USGS has issued an #earthquake forecast related to seismic activity around the Salton Sea. Forecasts give an idea of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area. usgs.gov/center-news/ea…
The most likely scenario is that the earthquakes will continue and then die off.
“Some moderately sized earthquakes may occur (M4.5-M5.4), which could cause localized damage. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M3.0+) may be felt by people close to the epicenters.”
“Some moderately sized earthquakes may occur (M4.5-M5.4), which could cause localized damage. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M3.0+) may be felt by people close to the epicenters.”
The next scenario is not as likely.
“Scenario Two (Less likely, about 19% chance): A larger earthquake (magnitude 5.5 to 6.9) could occur within the next 7 days.”
“Scenario Two (Less likely, about 19% chance): A larger earthquake (magnitude 5.5 to 6.9) could occur within the next 7 days.”
The next scenario is NOT very likely. The @USGS gives this a 1% chance of occuring.
“...the ongoing swarm could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M4.6 that occurred on the 10 August (i.e., M7.0 and above).”
“...the ongoing swarm could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M4.6 that occurred on the 10 August (i.e., M7.0 and above).”
Keep in mind, a 1% chance of happening is a 99% chance of NOT happening.
That being said, 1% is a higher then normal chance of a large earthquake in SoCal over the next week or so.
There’s no need to panic. Earthquakes can happen AT ANY TIME. CA is earthquake country.
That being said, 1% is a higher then normal chance of a large earthquake in SoCal over the next week or so.
There’s no need to panic. Earthquakes can happen AT ANY TIME. CA is earthquake country.
Seismic swarms in this area have happened 4 times since 2000 - in 2001, 2009, 2016 and now. None of those swarms caused a major earthquake and this one most likely won’t either. But it’s a great remind you be prepared. shakeout.org
Here’s an open access scientific paper about past seismic swarms in the area.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
This area is interesting because it’s an area that’s actively spreading apart, it has a lot of heat flow (and geothermal resources) AND the end of the San Andreas fault is located here. Here’s a breakdown of the tectonics here and to the south
🚨 IMPORTANT 🚨
As the @USGS says, “No one can predict the exact time or place of an earthquake, including aftershocks / events in swarms. Our earthquake forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes w/in a given time period in the affected area.”
As the @USGS says, “No one can predict the exact time or place of an earthquake, including aftershocks / events in swarms. Our earthquake forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes w/in a given time period in the affected area.”
This is great reminder that CA is earthquakes country. The west coast has 1000’s of faults that can cause damaging shaking. Remember, don’t be scared, be prepared. earthquakecountry.org/roots/
How can you prepare?
🔹Have an earthquake plan.
🔹Secure your space.
🔹Have an earthquake kit.
🔹Practice taking protective action (Drop, cover and hold on)
🔹Sign up to receive earthquake early warning notifications (@USGS_ShakeAlert) shakealert.org
🔹Have an earthquake plan.
🔹Secure your space.
🔹Have an earthquake kit.
🔹Practice taking protective action (Drop, cover and hold on)
🔹Sign up to receive earthquake early warning notifications (@USGS_ShakeAlert) shakealert.org
The @USGS is always the best source for earthquake information. Visit usgs.gov/center-news/ea… to read more about the forecast.
Side note - earthquake forecasts and earthquake predictions are NOT the same thing. usgs.gov/faqs/are-earth…
