#Quora Question: How can 20X or 10x leverage for Option Selling be a risk If I follow Risk Management?
So this is about #Intraday#ExpiryTrading#OptionsTrading
This is inspired from traders with 70k+ followers. These traders and trainers recommend selling dirt cheap options. 1/n
These traders started trading in expiry weekly options when volatility was less. Now the volatility is extreme.
You are asked to follow a portfolio stoploss of 1% so I suppose that is fine.
You are asked to sell cheap options of #Nifty 1 -2 rupee and #BankNifty 5-6 rupee 2/n
You will sell in small lots so that is fine too. Consider this scenario.
On 26 September 2019 at around 10 am I sold cheap options of #BankNifty at ₹6/- only 20 lots which was i think 4 to 5% of my capital. What bad can happen. When I was putting stoploss at ₹15/- 3/n
And midway BankNifty started jumping. It went to 50 in one spike. I cancelled the sl order. And went to net positions to square it off. Price was at 350 now. When I squared off and I am fast, price touched ₹700/-. 4/n
All of this happened in 5 to 7 minutes.
My target was 6, I ended up losing 700.
With 4-5% capital deployed, capital eroded 10% of total.
Now did I follow risk management? Yes
Did I follow position sizing? Yes
Still it happened. For 100 days i won ₹6/- but 5/n
In one day I lost 700/- points and a net loss of 100/- points. That is why selling option on leverage is bad. If this doesn't convince you, then nothing can. All it took is 10 minutes for market to screw 6 month of profits. Thats why it is not worth it.
My recommendation 6/n
Trade with a proven system for expiry on leverage if you want to. Some thing like #IntradayExplosion
Traders recommending leverage selling are living off the brokerage you generate. They themselves do it in very less quantity. That should be a warning sign. 7/n
There is one fellow #PRSundar who wants people to sell ₹1 options. People dont realize they are just getting net 0.66 paise. Few expiries back I saw 1 rs. Option go to 158. If you are ready for that R:R then best of luck. Happy Trading.
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Going forward, I am extremely cautious on BANKNIFTY.
I really was rooting for BANKNFITY to be bullish in coming days. Break of 39700 will take BANKNIFTY towards 37500 levels.
This is 1 Month Chart of BANKNIFTY. Break of 39700 (Support) will push prices further down.
On Daily Charts, we are standing at a support and gave a dead cat bounce. COI did not recede from this point but as you can see there has been continuous selling. At support, either this gives a bounce or indicative of incoming sell off.
MACD and ADX on Hourly Chart at support are getting sideways. Not bullish but just sideways.
Below 0 Line, MACD bullish is still a sideways market. ADX receding from 40-50 level below its EMA again a sideways sign.
At support, I will create positions will slight caution!
And yes, I am rightly worried. Its a neighbouring state.
This has been happening for past few months now. My immediate question was, what is the central government doing? I have no expectations from AAP. Or uprising of people of Punjab against such elements, as people themselves chose AAP. Many I talked with are regretting it now.
Today AAP might be the biggest threat to National Security. With Jammu and Kashmir stabilized, AAP might open a new frontier for Indian Government.
But no news media is showing this. Or Algorithms are not even picking it up. Why? Vested interest? But again back to question 1...
William's Alligator is probably the most underrated indicator in moving average category.
Alligator follows the premise that market is sideways for 70% of the time and trending only 30% of the time.
This is where William's Alligator can be a great tool for traders.
Why William's Alligator can be a great tool for traders?
It can identify Bullish, Bearish and Sideways market pretty easily. Problem is, traders don't know how to use it effectively. Alligator has three lines:
1. Lips - Fastest Line 2. Teeth 3. Jaws - Slowest Line
Book Interpretation is when Lips Crosses above Jaws, it's a buying opportunity and when below its a shorting opportunity. And when three lines are crisscrossing, instrument is sideways.
BUT this does not make it a tradeable indicator in practice. Here is what should be done.
I have no sympathies for #Scammers who were duping people with lakhs and crores of screenshots.
At first, I along with friends of mine were in awe of how they were generating this much return. For almost, 2 years I worked a lot and tried to break the code.
Do read and retweet.
A lot of ideas were worked upon on Amibroker may it be ITM Selling of Option, Option Doublers in 2 - 3 days, Intraday Option Buying, Future Holygrail and what not. In the process we were able to make Option Chain on Amibroker, calculate option greeks on Amibroker and what not.
But no definite system was built.
If we cracked up Option Buying or burst moves, it was difficult to ascertain position-sizing. For eg. position sizing average size, doesn't make the profit so lucrative. And if the position-size is big, loss could be 70% in 3 trades.
To understand options, three concepts are required: 1. Intrinsic / Extrinsic value 2. Time / Theta Decay 3. Implied Volatility
Option Value = Intrinsic + Extrinsic (Value)
Intrinsic Value - Value of Option if it were exercised today at CMP.
Extrinsic Value - Total Value of time in the option.
ATM and OTM options are 100% extrinsic value. ITM options have more intrinsic and less extrinsic value.
ITM Options: Intrinsic Value = Price of Underlying Asset -
Strike Price
For eg.
Nifty is at 11,416. 11400 CE of 29 Oct 2020 is at 224.40/-.
Intrinsic Value is = 11416-11400 = 16
Extrinsic Value is = 224.40-16 = 208.40.