Thread by @PhilPrazan

THREAD on #MiamiDade Mayor race.

1/11-In March, most people told me they knew it was going to be @penelasformayor vs. @XavierLSuarez1 in runoff. That began to change about 2-3 weeks ago. Here's a look back at some key reasons why it's now @votedaniella & @SteveBovo in November.

2- Miami-Dade voters picked two lesser known partisans over well-known moderates.

@votedaniella and @SteveBovo worked their plans. In post-Obama world partisanship works. They had a better chance at winning if they made the race partisan and they messaged to make it that way.

3- DLC and Bovo found money. As soon as Donald Sussman and @RepJoseOliva came in, they could at least *compete with the @penelasformayor fundraising juggernaut. Reporting by @doug_hanks and @NewsbySmiley. miamiherald.com/news/local/com…
miamiherald.com/news/politics-…

4-With money, DLC & Bovo were able to attack. What did they message? Corruption allegations. Using political committees, they were able to keep the conversation on the past. The more people spent talking about bad memories, the worse it was for AP and XS.
nbcmiami.com/investigations…

5- It's hard to deny #COVID19 was huge, in many ways it reset the race. For example, @XavierLSuarez1 stopped fundraising during pandemic, which was noble but contributed to him running out of money towards the end.
nbcmiami.com/news/local/mia…

6- #COVID19 also boosted the profile of current commissioners, who got a lot of press by doing things (good or bad) as part of @MiamiDadeBCC. That favored Bovo, XS, and DLC at the expense of AP. Reporting per @doug_hanks miamiherald.com/news/local/com…

7- Then came George Floyd and the conversation about #DefundingPolice. Bovo was the only candidate to say heck no; and he was able to consolidate the R vote by pointing out Penelas did not also say heck no. And he repeated that message over and over.
nbcmiami.com/news/local/mia…

8-Bovo & Levine Cava were also able to bring in surrogates that reinforced the partisan nature of the race - @marcorubio and @DebbieforFL - and earned media opportunities.

Penelas had most mayors & city leaders (highest profile @MayorHialeah). Suarez had his son, @FrancisSuarez.

9 - What I feel was key in the end (July-Aug) was Bovo & DLC deployed more people to get those votes. Especially with VBMs sitting on everyone's table, voter contact really made a difference - especially for DLC in D1-3 and Bovo in Hialeah. Again, a more partisan operation.

10- Then, the X-factors. @MoniqueBarley @DomondLudmilla @CarlosADeArmas received 6.86% as of now. AP currently losing to DLC by 4.06%. It will be interesting to see if they return. It looked like they enjoyed the process.

11- Of course, there are more reasons. And, I could be wrong, missing some aspects, or overvaluing others. I just put these out there to try and answer the question in every election: how did it happen? Feel free to add your own thoughts as well. #FlaPol #MiamiDade

12- I'll add one more. AP and XS had most of their support in NPAs & had to build out from the middle, which is hard. You have to fight everywhere all the time. If u respond to strong to one side, the other side knocks u. Another reason why it's hard to be a moderate post-2008.