Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Aug 24, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
#SciMe = Scientific method ("When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?" John Maynard Keynes) First the facts/data, 2nd the Analysis, 3rd the policy implications, finally the views.
2/int Precision in the use of words is very important for understanding & debating different views. Verbal extremism has been liberally used in recent years, generating a cycle of increasing abuse, leading too often to mutual hatred. The intellectuals must set a better example.
3/int A shift in focus from asserting one's views are only correct ones, to debating policy actions can introduce a large dose of reality into the discussions and cool extremist passions. Past is past, what policy action can we take, to make -ve (+ve) outcomes less(more) likely?
4/int Beware of #strawmen used by ideologues w/o data-based analysis to support their views. Clever debater identifies opponent with a group, takes most extreme view in group & demolishes it as flawed & concludes entire group is wrong(contrasts it w mst reasonable view of own grp
5/int Another debate trick : Have different norms for judging, controlled #Communist #dictatorships & poor, administratively weak, #democracies, but when debating, put both in same group, and use the known & accepted crimes of the former, to condemn the latter by association. QED
6/int Words as tools: There've been 10s of communal riots in India. Ratio of deaths of opposing religions, varies & differs from pop shares(state/district), with allegations of police bias. To selectively call a riot a Pogram w/o comparative data analysis is ideology or politics

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More from @dravirmani

Jan 28, 2023
One should be inured to the pro-China, anti-India, bias of the Anglo Saxon world, & its subalterns [ jstor.org/stable/30030642 ], but sadly after 50 yrs, one is still not!
2/ir #India’s #rise is causing deep disquiet in the #Anglo #Saxon #World and among its subalterns. #Information #War will intensify in next 3 years, and won’t subside till India becomes the third largest economy in (current) USD.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 28, 2023
As a National Security Strategist * find it a little difficult to interpret such statements by Senior officers of the US armed forces, in the broader context of the PRC threat!
2/nss Sweet spot for PLA aggression: #Elections in raucous democracies. => Lesson: Armed forces in threatened countries, should have more operational autonomy during election period.
3/nss Post script: #India’s general election is also in 2024
Read 4 tweets
Jan 28, 2023
2/res Ths who’ve never done #research in lifetime find it difficult to understand, why this is critical, for directing commissioning & using, good policy relevant research [An internal core of researchers is key to success]. For them ideas & analysis can be bought like software📦
3/res Any org that merely reacts to media headlines, & questions raised by critics, is like a consultancy organisation, not a think tank. It can never anticipate problems, nor create imaginative new solutions. Worlds top consultancy orgs. reward salesmanship not analysis… 4/res
Read 5 tweets
Oct 7, 2022
Buddha's Golden Mean (#BGM): "Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it, those who are obsessed by it, will never see a brighter future"
2/ncrh Remember these are the same folks whose neo-colonial progeny, preach us "principles" to support their selfish interests, and to "shame" us into working against our own national interest
3/ncrh The response must be rational, not emotional. Learn about India's (own) National interest, and the national interests of the major powers (Hint: USSR & PRC were colonial) to understand how "principles" are used & misused!
Read 4 tweets
Sep 25, 2022
As I have said in many talks, and as the author @pujamehra wrote, the period 2004-13, was a, “lost decade” in terms of economic policy reform, not in terms of GDP growth rate. The latter was due to the lagged effects of 1991-2003 reforms.
The effects of sept 2019-March 2022 #policy #reforms will therefore, likely not be visible in the growth rate, before FY 24 or FY 25. However, the quicker the changes in law are reflected in the rules & procedure applicable to firms, the quicker they will be reflected in growth!
3/gdpi Remember “#India #Shining” campaign in 2003-4: Bcs of lags btwn enactment of policy rfrm into law, their translation into rules & procedures, and decisions by investors, it took years to translate policy reforms into aggregate growth. Wrld econ is in much worse shape today
Read 9 tweets

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