As a doctor, I fear this isn't getting enough attention: New presidential advisor Scott Atlas backs a very dangerous plan to have us all get #COVID19 so we achieve "herd immunity."👇 This could *kill* hundreds of thousands of Americans. Here's how: (1/11)
Now to Atlas's dangerous idea for #COVID19: "Herd immunity" occurs when enough people have immunity to a disease so the infectious agent can't find a new host & it eventually dies out. A minimum of 43% (some say 70%) of Americans would need to be infected to achieve this. (3/11)
Let's do some math: With a population of 330 million, 142M Americans would need to have immunity. We've had 6 million positive tests in the U.S. so far & CDC says the true number of infection could be 10x that. Let's say it's 5x, which means 30M cases. Stick with me here. (4/11)
That means 112 million *more* Americans would need to become infected to achieve herd immunity. With a low estimate mortality rate of 0.5%, that equals 560k more deaths in the US. Are we willing to sacrifice over half-a-million of our loved ones to try this experiment? (5/11)
Look at Sweden, who tried this experiment earlier this year: It not only has had a death rate 5-10x that of its Nordic neighbors, it recently has shown that instead of the predicted 40% antibody prevalence rate, the actual number is closer to 15%, a third of what's needed. (6/11)
To determine how to combat #COVID19, real-world evidence should inform our decision making. Nations like South Korea, New Zealand, Canada, Germany & others instituted initial lockdowns, massive early testing & mask mandates. How are they doing so far? (7/11)
These places have largely emerged from the worst of the outbreaks with far fewer deaths per capita & can now relax measures, re-open schools & resume lives closer to normal while maintaining the ability to test, trace & isolate when small hotspots emerge. Pretty good, no? (8/11)
Due to the failed response of @realDonaldTrump, we missed our chance to control the virus early, but as cases begin to wane once again, we have an opportunity to achieve better control of the outbreak by a huge mobilization of rapid turnaround testing and a mask mandate. (9/11)
I understand that so much damage has been done to our economy and that Trump supporters have so little trust in our institutions of public health, that instituting these measures now could prove difficult, or even fail. But we must try. (10/11)
The alternative of pursuing a path that could lead to half-a-million additional unnecessary American deaths is unconscionable.
As a doctor who's dedicated over two decades of my life to serving my community and saving lives, I cannot sit idly by & let that transpire. (/END.)
As a doctor who's dedicated over two decades of my life to serving my community and saving lives, I cannot sit idly by & let that transpire. (/END.)
