All this. All the predictions of costs of no deal (GDP -5% to -8% smaller than otherwise) are smoothed out over 10 years. But they don’t tell you about disproportionate, concentrated impact on key industries (food, cars, chem, meds) in key (red wall) areas. 1/
When you ask modellers why it’s smoothed out, it’s precisely because localised impacts are so difficult to predict as industries suffer micro-fractures in supply chains when, say, a chemical or an ingredient becomes economically unviable. /2
Even when you ask people in these industries what’s gonna happen in a ‘no deal’ they struggle to tell you. Downstream and knock-on impacts, and how fast industry and consumers adapt to these are really hard to guess. /3
So a CO2 shortage predictably hit the fizzy drinks industry...but less predictably (for most people) caused a lack of chicken in KFC outlets.../4
metro.co.uk/2018/06/22/bri…
metro.co.uk/2018/06/22/bri…
A no deal #brexit really is a leap into the unknown - particularly in the short term. Economically and politically.
As @DmitryOpines says, pointing to smoothed out effects over time is a luxury afforded academics, not politicians.
ENDS.
As @DmitryOpines says, pointing to smoothed out effects over time is a luxury afforded academics, not politicians.
ENDS.
