Thread by @RijoMJohn

👉India crossed 4M reported #COVID19 cases & 69635 deaths
👉How India got here? Follow this thread for important trends national, state & district level
👉10 lakh new cases & 13707 deaths were added in the past 2 weeks
👉About 13M tests during this period (TPR 7.7%)
(1/n)

👉Cases growing at 2.2% & remained steady over a week
👉7-day avg. daily new cases shows no sign of slowing
👉Daily active cases rebounding (growth 1.7%).
👉Tests growing at 2.4%
👉Daily tests averaged 10.5L past 7 days (47% tests are now RADT)
👉Daily deaths ~1000 level (2/n)

👉Growth of tests > that of cases
👉Daily TPR trending down again
👉Rapid antigen tests constitute approx 47% of daily tests
👉In some states like Delhi & Kerala it's ~70%
👉state should report both tests & +ves by test types in their daily bulletin which most don't do
(3/n)

👉Chandigarh & Chattisgarh has highest growth >5%
👉Less than 10 states got TPR<5% now
👉Southern states like AP, KA & KL has high TPR despite having high Rapid Antigen tests in their daily tests
👉Very high TPR in MH, AP & CT is worrying
(4/n)

👉Mortality rate 1.7% at national level
👉But high MR in some high burden states such as MH & GJ are worrying
👉Mortality rates extremely low in almost the whole of Northeast whether we see deaths per million or cases
👉Many eastern states & KL also has very low MR
(5/n)

👉Trends in mortality rates for both closed cases (recovered+deceased) and total cases
👉Both these rates are suppose to converge by the end of pandemic
👉High variations in these rates are apparent in most states
(6/n)

👉Trends in total confirmed cases and deaths in high burden states with at least 50K+ cases
👉The chart is in log scale and the steepness of the lines indicate how the cases/deaths are growing
👉Steeper means faster growth
(7/n)

👉The daily reported numbers from y'day across states
👉Arunachal, Delhi, A&N Islands & TS were among states with highest tests per million per day y'day
👉Many larger and high burden states like MH, UP, WB, MP, RJ etc doing low tests per million per day
(8/n)

👉Trends in daily new cases across states.
👉Some of the states are now showing signs of rebound in cases
👉Delhi growing at 1.3% after bottoming at 0.7%
👉MH shows no sign of slowing down
(9/n)

👉This chart helps you figure out which are the states where active cases are on the rise and needs to be worried
👉There is clear sign of declining trends in cases in some states while it is going up in several others
👉Some are seeing rebound in cases
(10/n)

👉Trends in daily test per million per day & TPR across states with 20K+ reported cases
👉Odisha, AP, UT & PB seem to be either reducing or not increasing their daily tests per million
👉States seeing increase in TPR needs to significantly increase daily TPM
(11/n)

👉Top 50 districts in India in terms of total cases
54% of cases & 67% of deaths now come from these districts
👉This was 57% of cases & 69% just two weeks ago
👉Delhi, Mumbai, Thane and few others seeing a rebound in cases after declining for several days
(11/n)

👉Lastly, this is where total cases are projected to be till Sep 30
👉This projection has been on track till date
👉Daily new cases expected to cross 1 Lakh by Sept 21
👉#Unlock4 is here. But, mind your own safety & avoid travel as much as possible. (n/n)

https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1297747902291312640?s=20