Thread by @hansilowang

NEW: Census Bureau has started letting go some #2020Census workers, so the earlier a court were to order Trump admin to extend counting, the more likely there will be workers left, Al Fontenot, bureau's top official for the count, says in sworn statement:
assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7203…

2. Fontenot, bureau's associate director for #2020Census, says "we wish to be crystal clear" that if a court were to order counting to continue past 9/30, bureau "would be unable to meet" current legal deadlines for results bc bureau "simply cannot shorten" processing time again.

3. Fontenot says the possibility of "continual, conflicting, and evolving court orders" in this legal fight over the shortened #2020Census schedule is "particularly troubling."

4. Between my reporting & Fontenot's testimony, a timeline on how plan to shorten #2020Census was hatched in hours, not days:

7/29: Fontenot informed of directive for a plan by 8/3
7/30: Fontenot tells staff at 8 a.m. ET meeting; NPR confirms door knocking to end early on 9/30

5. By the way, @USGAO's @mihm_chris confirmed to me last month that Census Bureau officials told the GAO that they were given "hours rather than days or weeks" to revise their #2020Census plans to finish counting by the end of September.
npr.org/2020/08/11/901…

6. Fontenot says he & Ali Ahmad -- who was appointed by the Trump administration to be the Census Bureau's associate director of communications -- "directed that the COVID Schedule be removed from our website while we replanned."

Guess that explains this?

https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1289062541713448961?s=20

7. It's not clear what measure(s) of data quality the Census Bureau used to determine which last-minute changes to #2020Census schedule would allow them to meet legal reporting deadline "without compromising quality to an undue degree."

8. Fontenot says Census Bureau Director Steven Dillingham "announced" the plan to shorten the #2020Census schedule in the afternoon of Aug. 3.

But I did not find a public statement about it on @uscensusbureau's website until around 9 p.m. ET on Aug 3 (census.gov/newsroom/press…).

9. Fontenot says Census Bureau "has kept the Office of Management & Budget informed about schedule developments" for shortened #2020Census plan announced on 8/3.

But date of latest submission on OMB's Reginfo.gov page for #2020Census is 7/2.
reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAO…

10. By the way, Census Bureau told me in this 8/18 email it was planning to "document" the last-minute 7th #2020Census mailing that started arriving at homes on 8/22 in a new OMB request, but as of 9/5, there's no new supplementary doc on OMB's website: reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAV…

11. Fontenot says "current progress" in #2020Census door-knocking efforts "indicates that we will nonetheless be able to complete" the operation "before September 30" because of the higher-than-expected productivity rate of its door knockers.

12. Fontenot says when an area is in the "closeout phase" because it's crossed 85% "completion mark" before Sept. 11, the Census Bureau's "best" door knockers are assigned to "resolve the remaining cases in that area." As of Sept. 3, 1,220+ areas are in the closeout phase.

13. By the way, this requirement of 85% of cases closed for an area to transition to closeout matches w bureau's detailed operational plan for door knocking (see PDF page 34: www2.census.gov/programs-surve…). I asked the bureau about this on 9/1, but for some reason, no answer yet.

14. Fontenot (left) says neither Reinterview, Field Quality Monitoring nor Coverage Improvement program so far reveal "pattern of substandard data collection." I can't find any mention of how eliminating random reinterviews could reduce "quality" (Slide 7 oversight.house.gov/sites/democrat…)

15. As I've previously reported, the Census Bureau changing the processing schedule for #2020Census results is risky business. Fontenot confirms the changes "increase the risk the Census Bureau will not identify errors during post processing in time to fix them."

16. Part of what makes tinkering with the schedule for processing #2020Census results so risky is that the steps involved "must generally be performed consecutively" and there's "an order of steps that must be maintained," Fontenot explains.

17. Fontenot reveals new dates and details about how the Census Bureau is planning to process the #2020Census results (from pages 18-22: assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7203…)

18. The Census Bureau is still planning to release demographic analysis estimates in December before the release of the #2020Census apportionment counts, Fontenot says.

19. The plan the Census Bureau developed to extend the #2020Census schedule in response to COVID-19-related delays was apparently finalized by staff, presented to Commerce Department and revealed to Congress and the public all on the same day -- April 13 -- according to Fontenot.

20. According to Fontenot, the rush to get more door knockers out working in late July and early August -- ahead of what was the planned nationwide launch date of Aug. 11 -- was driven by growing concerns within the bureau that it had to meet Dec. 31 apportionment count deadline.

21. Questions left unanswered:
- How & exactly when did it become "apparent" to Census Bureau leaders that Congress was "not likely" to grant requested statutory relief"?
- Why did Al Fontenot and Ali Ahmad decide it was necessary to take down the "COVID Schedule" from website?

22. Another question left unanswered:

- Why has the Census Bureau set end dates or closeout dates for certain areas -- such as San Diego as I've reported -- that haven't yet closed 85% of door-knocking cases? How does the bureau project that far out?
npr.org/2020/09/01/908…

23. State demographers, I almost forgot: Al Fontenot says the Census Bureau would consider whether it's possible to reschedule the canceled count review event if a court orders the bureau to go back to the extended #2020Census schedule.