Q3 delivery of Model 3 has started this wk, the first since Feb. The leftover from Nov/Dec orders first, apparently. Some who ordered in July are getting delivery dates in late Sept, so apparently the entire backlog from Nov '19 ~ July '20 will be cleared.
How's the mix?
Roughly equal mix of 3 trims.
My estimate for Q3 is unchanged; ~500 Model 3 + ~100 S/X.
Assuming they clear the backlog, I'm expecting 3~400 total in Q4, then steady decline until Why.
In other words, the importance of JPN as a market for Tesla will likely decline further. Didn't think that was possible for the 3rd largest auto mrkt in the world.
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If anything S.Korea had more cases than usual, but fewer hospitalization. That makes sense, given that RSV is worse in <1. Delayed infection is a good thing.
What's ironic is that, if you follow the logic of "immunity debt" enthusiasts (charitably, tbf), you end up concluding that "freedom day" was even dumber than we already thought.
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For one, we know infection-induced immunity to many of these pathogens is fairly shot-lived. i.e. what happened yrs ago doesn't really matter.
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For another, not all pathogens are created equal. Some are more infectious/harder to control.
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Variant-specific PCR says suspected BA.5 was ~3/4 during 7/5~7/11. Almost all suspected BA.5 for the latest wk (7/12~7/18).
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Similar story for Kobe. L452R+ > 80% for 7/11~7/17 (1st table). Majority of sequences (2nd table) from 7/4~7/10 were BA.5. They show BA.2.12.1 under BA.2 in ( ), BA.2.75 in [ ].
Mini-thread on JPN Covid mortality data wrt "from" vs. "with".
(Meaning to do this since MHLW advisory board posted some useful data a month ago, so here it is.)
tl;dr: Covid is still the primary cause in majority of reported deaths & Omicron is bad.
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MHLW guideline essentially requires all deaths by Covid patients be reported, so the reported #s include some incidental cases. So what % is incidental?
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First, data from Kanagawa pref. (pop. 9.2m, 2nd largest) on the "primary" causes of death in Jan/Feb '22 (almost all Omicron).
Primary cause: 53.2%
Not primary cause: 32.1%
Undetermined: 14.7%
Note that "not primary cause" doesn't mean it wasn't a contributing factor.
2 lines overlapping for Alpha = ~2% CFR
Same for Delta & Omicron = ~0.3% CFR
Note the differences in Y-axes.
Most seniors got vaccinated after the peak of Alpha wave. Others during the Delta wave.
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Omicron wave is likely to peak next wk (likely already did in southern/western 1/3 of the country), so deaths likely to peak in late Feb. Looking like it'll be the deadliest wave so far.
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Roughly,
Spring '20: 1k
Summer/Autumn '20: 1k
Winter '20-'21: 7.5k
Spring '21 (Alpha): 7.5k
Summer '21 (Delta): 3k
Winter '22 (Omicron): ~800 so far.
Per case severity is clearly lower relative to pre-vaxx peaks, but high transmissibility makes that less relevant.
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