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1/4 🇸🇪 updating a few graphs, adding one additional week (35)👇🏽 follow the dark green line. At or below average of 2015-2019 for 9 consecutive weeks. Week 35 so far only recorded 10 #covid19 deaths. Will be adjusted upwards but still very few. +
2/4 Year 2020 and year 2019 continues to stay ca 13 days from average of 2015-2018 and when accounting for population growth... +
3/4 Voila... +
4/4 Last two graphs showing week 25 through 35 and 1 through 35. Comparing per age group.
#COVID19sverige
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Harald
@HaraldofW
1/4 🇸🇪 there have been speculation if 2019 with few deaths could impact the outcome of deaths 2020. What does history tell us? Instead of y2y I looked at consecutive flu seasons👇🏽and as we can see deaths increased until 2000 and then slight downward trend until 2014 and then up+
2/4 We see that most drops in all cause mortality (acm) season2season are followed by an increase the year after. Does larger drops (more than -3,37%) result in increases? Yes always during this period. Does the drop revert with equally large percentage increase? +
3/4 Well, so it seems at least. When looking at drops in three ranges we see that often a drop is followed by an on average equally large increase. 2019 had a large drop of acm which was followed by a large increase in 2020.+
Read 6 tweets
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Harald
@HaraldofW
1/18 🇸🇪 4th update. Shorter, many aspects are similar to last update, eg age distribution of #covid19 deaths in Sweden -> ca 90% over 70 years old or that ca 70% of those deceased were either care home residents or receiving home care service as can be seen in graph below. +
2/18 Let’s start with two model projections. First the IHME model which shows that prediction of deaths were far above actual. This is continually worth reminding of because these messages were hammered into our heads by media and the #covid19 opinionados. +
3/18 Equally disastrous were the projections of ICU beds needed, hospitals were predicted to be overrun. Very good for us this did not happen and we kept below max capacity at all times. + #COVID19sverige
Read 18 tweets
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Harald
@HaraldofW
1/5 🇸🇪 a few graphs from FoHMs latest weekly (w28) update. This graph shows (green) mild cases and (purple) severe cases of total #covid19 cases per week. + #COVID19sverige
2/5 This graph shows confirmed #covid19 cases per week and age groups. All age groups decline compared to last week. +
3/5 This graph shows number of confirmed cases in care homes. Of all confirmed cases, ca 9% have been in care homes (ca 7000). Almost half of them from Stockholm. Of confirmed care home cases, ca 38% have died.+ @Daniilgor
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