The sheer volume of reporters/newspapers/tv stations that have unquestioningly accepted the results of the #SturgisRally study is... well... disappointing

There are some assumptions in it that could very well be flawed. ($46K per case for example)

I looked at CO data...
(more)
Study specifically references Jefferson, Weld, and Adams counties where 1.) lots of residents went to Sturgis and 2.)saw a notable increase in COVID cases.

So, I looked at each county's data...

Adams, for example, experienced NO marked increase.

tchd.org/823/Case-Updat…
Jefferson County did see a small bump,... but it didn't sustain itself

jeffco.us/4007/COVID-19-…
Weld County...

little to no bump

weldgov.com/departments/he…
To be clear, I'm not saying the study is wrong...

But I am guessing most reporters reporting on this have yet to even read the study

Here it is if you want to read it:
ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf
The study suggests Sturgis was a superspreader event that could be tied to a quarter of a million cases

With a cost of $12.2 BILLION to the health care system

Yet in the three Colorado counties that saw a high number of people go... the Colorado data shows no sustained growth
Could that change?

Sure

Was it responsible for thousands of people to crowd together in a SD town in the middle of a pandemic?

You can decide for yourself

BUT

for reporters to take the non-peer reviewed study w/o question for cheap clicks...

WELL.

That's not great
And THIS IS PRECISELY WHY OUR NAYSAYERS CRITICIZE US

By sharing the negative "sky is falling" stories w/o questioning it... and simultaneously showing skepticism of stories that suggest maybe it's not

we become unwitting cheerleaders in a story with huge policy implications.
All I'm asking for is consistent level of skepticism to be shared across the spectrum on this story.

That's all...

We've scared people, sometimes (but not always) needlessly so.

This story is scary enough without our worst tendencies adding more fuel to this fire.

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More from @chrisvanderveen

26 Aug
WEDNESDAY #COVID19Colorado numbers are in...

HEADLINE: "Yeah. I'm getting boring. But the numbers aren't budging much."

Let's start with HOSPITALIZATIONS

8/26: 146 COVID+ patients (+9 from yesterday)
8/19: 151

COVID+ & PUI
8/26: 253 (+10 from yesterday)
8/19: 262

#9news
So, yes, small increase day to day...

but, like I always say, day-to-day is a bad metric

Safe to say, we still appear to be in what I like to call Phase FOUR
(see my "artwork" below)
Now let's look at POSITIVITY (Red) and TESTING (green and yellow)

As of now, 2.52%
One week ago... 3.06%
(that's good)

Testing hovering around 7k
(That's relatively low)
Read 6 tweets
14 Aug
THREAD

I'd like to take a moment to talk about the death of Cannon Hinnant

He's the 5 yr old from Wilson, NC, murdered by neighbor 8/9

You might have seen his name trending here on Twitter. #CannonHinnant

Maybe you wondered why it hasn't gotten more coverage. I wondered too Image
Let's start out by saying, ALL murders are tragic and horrible

Should we be giving the story more attention? Possibly

But then again, in the last month, by my count, Cannon is one of at least 22 children under the age of 7 to be fatally shot.

I'd guess you know nothing of them
One month ago... Kamila Patterson, 2, was shot and killed in Lorain, Ohio.

Police captain called it "an unfortunate tragedy"

"person of interest" is a 30-year old Image
Read 17 tweets
10 Aug
MONDAY hospital numbers are in

HEADLINE: "Yeah. I know. Had a really long vacation, but at least the numbers stayed flat - or got better - and things ain't lookin too shabby today either"

8/10: 185 COVID+ patients
8/3: 209
7/27 (last day I worked): 250

#9news
#COVID19Colorado
This is pretty remarkable folks.

This is the first time below 200 patients in more than a month
This is a game changer

Colorado has effectively gotten passed its second bad spell and things are falling again.

Look at positivity, for example.
(*this is not updated with today's numbers yet)

Yesterday we were below 3%!
Read 9 tweets
20 Jul
Monday @CDPHE and Colorado Dept of Education press conference about to begin... talking guidance for schools moving forward.

Will update below...

#COVID19Colorado
this is audio only... on zoom...

here are participants
Read 15 tweets
17 Jul
FRIDAY testing data in

Headline: Welp, remember that 5% positivity line we didn't want to cross? Yep, we crossed it.

Three day average:

7/16: 5.11%
7/9: 4.77%

(6/15: 2.34%)

#9news
Why is this a (relatively) big deal?

Because the WHO, in essence, made that the threshold... Said it was a good sign for countries to have it below 5% for 14 days in a row.

Yes, it's a bit of an arbitrary line, but it's important nonetheless.

coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/indivi…
Does this mean we are doomed?

No.

Does it mean we are going to lock down again?

No.

But we are seeing more positive cases, even as we test more. That suggests what @CDPHE has been saying...

There is more spread taking place RIGHT NOW
Read 10 tweets
16 Jul
BREAKING -- @GovofCO announces statewide mask mandate for public, indoor spaces in Colorado.
Dr. Rachel Herlihy, state epidemiologist, says we are seeing an acceleration of case growth.

Says we are seeing "some pretty rapid acceleration" in hospitalizations too.
Dr. Herlihy is painting a bit of a dire forecast here, folks.

Says state has potential to exceed ICU bed capacity in September.

(don't shoot the messenger BTW)
Read 12 tweets

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