COVID Update September 8: Ive been trying to write on Twitter an amalgamation of what I hear every day from scientists, the White House, governors & every day people.

Now I want to write those actual conversations & stories. 1/

amazon.com/Preventable-Le…
Why? Because as the title says so much of the loss we’ve experienced was preventable.

And the on the ground view that I’ve seen tells me that we have to wrestle with some tough questions. 2/
Most experts I’ve talked to estimate that 75% of our the lives we lost could have been saved if we had done a better job at this.

These bugs are a part of life and we need to understand how to do this.3/
There’s not just one reason the situation we’re in was preventable.

If we want to prevent the next potentially worse ones we should understand as many of the reasons as we can.

And have some real conversations. 4/
Not containing the epidemic at the outset (both by China & by us w no working tests) feels like the first missed opportunity. We count on scientists & political leaders to do that.

But what if they can’t? Or don’t? Then what? Are we just destined to be overwhelmed? 5/
There are deeper issues:
-a health care system filled with amazing people run by greedy ones
-a country where too many will no longer walk in others’ shoes
-a country where the burdens fall on the same people over & over
-money buys indifference if you want it 6/
-we are out of practice at sacrifice
-we have an obsession with our rights but not the price of our freedom
-we have diminished our experts & science in general
-we have neglected public health because it’s not a problem until it’s our problem
-our Congress doesn’t answer to us7/
-we didn’t learn lessons quickly in one region and apply them to another

Of course our federal government wouldn’t take this seriously, accept the situation we were in, or level with us. But—- 8/
All but the last are underlying conditions before you even consider who is president. For a president to overcome them, he or she needs to simply bring compassion & competency and a willingness to solve problems.

We don’t have that. But I wanted to go deeper in this book.9
In other words, writing a takedown of Trump wouldn’t be hard to do on this topic, but it’s also not enough.

10
I don’t worry about getting out of this. Sadly we will get out at too high a price.

But I worry that this is may be our starter bug. What if the next one spreads like measles & is as lethal as Ebola?11/
We have to be able to count on our government. And it would be nice to be able to count on one another. 12/
That’s why I wrote the book. And for it I talked to so many who were kind enough to share their stories so this could be told first-hand. 13/
Daily conversations with scientists government officials risk managers FDA WHO CDC Congress Governors doctors nurses patients families as they we’re going through this helped me write this.

Makes it feel a bit like The Big Short except he’s Michael Lewis and I’m not.
It was announced today. It’s already the 999,999,999th most popular book. So there’s that. So I’m pretty sure you can pre-order.
More importantly than the book, we can prevent this from happening next time. /end

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More from @ASlavitt

11 Sep
COVID Update September 10: Paul Revere thought he was doing his job but that whole “redcoats are coming” thing panicked people. 1/
The White House has a very systematic model and detailed memos on states where COVID is growing but they don’t share them publicly. So we don’t panic people. 2/
Florida let go the one person in the state who tried to point out what was about to— and did— hit them. Fortunately they fired her so she didn’t panicked people. Before some of them died. 3/
Read 19 tweets
9 Sep
COVID Update September 9: I don't like writing COVID threads about Donald Trump.

But sometimes there is no choice. Today there is no choice. 1/
Now we know Trump wanted to "play it down" when he heard the Coronavirus spread through the air and could kill upwards of 5% of people.

So he thought (wrongly) that 5% of people-- including "not just old people" would die from COVID. And what he decided to do about it? 2/
"Play it down," Trump said of the virus.

So he decided to lie. And he decided to cover up that lie by publicly attacking anyone who disagreed. The CDC, HHS, Anthony Fauci. 3/
Read 19 tweets
9 Sep
NEW: One of the leading vaccine candidates from Oxford and AZ has been temporarily halted.

I’ve been confirming my understanding of this could mean with others. Follow below if interested.
Phase 3 trials put the vaccine in tens of thousands of people. They are followed very closely to monitor both safety & efficacy.
Trials frequently pause when one of the participants becomes ill.

For example, if one of the 30,000 or so people taking the vaccine has a heart attack, that’s the smart thing to do (I don’t know what the event was— I’m using this as an example).
Read 12 tweets
8 Sep
COVID Update September 7: The best way to overview what’s going on w people w long term #COVIDー19 symptoms is to let people with #LongCovid speak for themselves.

And I gave a few things to say too. 1/
As with many viruses, some people experience symptoms long after their initial diagnosis. Known as #longhaulers, it can be rough going as symptoms can impact the nervous system, heart, lungs, gut, smell/taste, kidney, brain, immune system, energy.

Mental & physical symptoms.2/
Today I gave my account over to amplifying people’s stories.

And to my surprise that offended some people. 3/
Read 25 tweets
6 Sep
COVID Update September 6: There’s a lot of Twitter mansplaining about herd immunity.

Here’s what it means. 1/
I actually think it means one of several things depending on who says it. 2/
1. The first thing it means is “This is too hard. I give up. We might as well just get it dear & get it over with.”

Tired of missing your football games? Aching to go to the BBQ? Believe in herd immunity. 3/
Read 27 tweets
6 Sep
COVID Update September 6: This bug is beatable.

I talked to 3 lab directors, the FDA, 2 former FDA commish, 3 epis, 2 virologists & a senior White House scientist so I could give you a consensus on what we know. 1/
Much of the spread is highly highly clustered. Everyone who gets the flu is more or less evenly infectious. Here a small number of people are highly infectious. And there a small number of places where the virus is highly spreadable. 2/
Compared to other viruses, we would much much much rather not have asymptomatic spreaders and pre-symptomatic spread, but fortunately not everyone coming in contact is getting it. Its not the measles. 3/
Read 25 tweets

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