Now the equation is that if they block reforms, they risk losing everything they have—the billions stolen from the country over the decades. And while, yes, they don’t want to give up anything, the French, with tacit U.S. backing, have altered the equation.
Does this mean success for the French plan? Who can say, but in the game of chicken, the politicians have suddenly seen the car bearing down on them transformed into a 10-ton truck, with one off ramp: the French road map.
The French proposal was effectively negotiated between Macron and Hezbollah, so it’s not clear whether the politicians can seek to undermine it. Nor is it at all clear that Hezbollah wants it to fail, only heightening the dilemma for the recalcitrant politicians.
Hezbollah does not want to give up on its alliances with Berri and Bassil. However, the U.S. sanctions, and implicit French threats to do the same, have ensured that both are now more dependent upon Hezbollah, making them less likely to oppose the party’s preferences.
So the irony is that in going after Hezbollah’s allies, the U.S. may have strengthened the party and reinforced the French scheme to force the politicians into making concessions on reform. It wasn’t the U.S. aim but only the French had a cohesive plan to bring all this together.
Now the French can say to the politicians, “We’re your only protection against the U.S. You need to work with us.” Let’s see if this interpretation holds water. But the politicians don’t seem to have many other obvious options.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
