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10 Sep, 25 tweets, 9 min read
(Thread) Lordy, There Are Tapes

We learned that Bob Woodward has tapes of Trump admitting that he knew in Jan. that the world faced a health emergency on par with the flu pandemic of 1918, which killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide, and lied about it.

Mindy asked:
1/ I believe the answer is no.

First, recall the arguments made by the Fox-Trump-GOP for why we should do nothing–even after we knew the virus was deadly:
2/ They said we have a choice: People die from COVID, or we “kill the country”:

They said deaths from a shutdown could exceed the deaths from the virus.
bostonherald.com/2020/04/16/dea…
3/ This was a made-up fact—but the Trump-Fox-GOP never denied people would die from the virus. They just argued that it was the lesser of the two evils.

Trump made clear that his concern was to protect the stock market (which he conflates with the economy).
4/ Trump believed that a strong economy would get him elected, so he resisted proactive steps that would spook the markets. Fox backed him up.
msn.com/en-us/tv/news/…

The Trump-Fox-GOP disregards facts and makes up what they need.
5/ Remember all those absurd arguments on social media? 

Examples include: We didn’t shut down for the flu, which killed 61K people, so why do so for COVID.

We drive even though traffic accidents kill.

Dumb stuff like that.
6/ On May 28, the COVID death count in the US passed 100K.

In July–after it was clear to everyone that the virus was serious–Team Trump “shied away from a national strategy” because it was hitting blue states.
businessinsider.com/kushner-covid-…
7/ And remember this⤵️

They mean that when a government tries to help people instead of maintaining a hierarchy, it’s “communism.”

Moreover, even if Trump wanted to take proactive steps, he didn’t know how. He has no idea how to manage a pandemic. Nor does anyone around him.
8/ In fact, Trump has never actually managed anything in his life except his image and the Trump Reality Show.

Also, remember that Trump dismantled Obama's Pandemic Preparedness System, so he had no government apparatus for handling the pandemic.
vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/t…
9/ Even after the death count was rising, Trump refused to use the Defense Production Act to mobilize industry to produce masks and ventilators.

He didn’t want to “put down the heavy hand of government.”

He wanted private companies fill the need.
npr.org/2020/03/25/821…
10/ In other words, he wanted to make sure he and his buddies got rich. Because that’s what fascists do.

Moreover, Trump didn't even didn't hide that he was being a "cheerleader" so he wouldn't "create havoc."

On April 7, he said: whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
11/ Shortly after the "Woodward has tapes" story broke, John Harwood reported that ⤵️

If Trump so casually told Woodward his strategy and reasons, he would have told anyone—confident that minimizing the virus was the wisest strategy

(and the only thing he was capable of doing)
12/ You see, the “White House staffers” don’t care how many people die. Trump doesn’t care. He also doesn’t think it’s his job to manage a virus.

On July 21, Trump told Woodward: “The virus has nothing to do with me. It’s not my fault.”
washingtonpost.com/politics/bob-w…
13/ Fascists aren't capable of managing real crises (they prefer invented ones, which is why Eastasia is always at war with Eurasia).

All they can do is blame: It's China's fault!

Now Fox blames Woodward (as if they didn't know the truth all along).
foxnews.com/media/woodward…
14/ Here's the “liberals hate Trump and blame him no matter what he does so it doesn’t matter if he does nothing” argument.


When any story breaks, the Fox-Trump-GOP rush to alter facts and blame the Democrats.
15/ Yes, definitely. ⤵️

With almost 200K people dead, the story has an entirely different impact.

On the heels of the “soldiers are suckers” story, this is not good for Trump.
16/ Trump’s support will not crater, and the GOP will not flee– but these revelations can still make a difference.

@RachelBitecofer, an elections and polling expert, believes that Trump has a floor of about 43%.
17/ Currently the aggregates show Trump with about 46%

A few days ago, we wondered if “soldiers are loser and suckers” story would make a difference. A YouGov Poll found:

So these things can eat at his support in small bites.

18/ While nothing will crater his base support (⤵️) these things can eat at his percentage in small bites.

We have an election just around the corner (voting in at least 5 states starts in September) and Trump is down in the polls. He doesn’t have much time to turn this around
19/ The Economist polling aggregate currently projects Biden winning by 7.2 percentage points.

The 538 aggregate currently has Biden up by 6.7 percentage points. (On Twitter, @ForecasterEnten gives the number as 8 percentage points. I assume the aggregate runes behind.)
20/ Recall that the Democrats won the midterms by 8 percentage points.

If a story like this moves the needle just one or two percentage points, that could make an enormous difference: Winning the election by 9 or 10 points makes a much bigger difference than winning by 7 points.
23/ A point or two can make a difference in the Senate, and down ballot races. State and local offices are hugely important.

So yes, this kind of thing can make a difference.

Just keep your expectations realistic.
This thread is on my blog, here: terikanefield-blog.com/lordy-there-ar…
Thanks, @DemCastUSA and @mindyanns for republishing my post on the Demcast site.

They are immune to facts.

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More from @Teri_Kanefield

Teri Kanefield Profile picture
11 Sep
I finished reading @petestrzok’s Compromised.

I highly recommend it, particularly for those who want an inside look at the FBI, an inside look at the Mueller investigation, and/or an introduction to law enforcement and counterintelligence (including the difference).

1/
It’s also a chilling look at Trump’s vindictiveness and destructiveness.

It’s no surprise that a president who doesn’t care how many Americans die of a virus doesn’t care if he destroys the life of anyone who crosses him or seeks to expose the truth about him.

2/
This book is partly a defense against the unhinged right-wing attacks on the FBI.

Strzok never mentions the Fourth Amendment (the amendment protecting Americans from unreasonable searches, seizures, and surveillance) but he outlines the procedures the FBI follows.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Teri Kanefield Profile picture
10 Sep
If Trump so casually revealed all of this to Woodward, you know he was saying the same things to people in his circle.

He probably saw no reason to hide his view that it was better to keep the masses from panicking so that the stock market wouldn't crash.
washingtonpost.com/politics/bob-w…
My followers also knew.

I went back and checked: On Feb. 27, @mcjulie asked me if I thought Sadopopulism was at work, or if the Trump-FOX-GOP wanted a serious pandemic.

(To be fair, I have the smartest followers on Twitter)

Here's the thread I wrote answering her question ⤵️

In a nutshell, I argued that Trump was downplaying it because he had no idea how to manage a real crisis.

He only knew how to stage manufactured crises and pretend to be the strongman.
Read 4 tweets
Teri Kanefield Profile picture
8 Sep
(Thread) The Future of the GOP: Part IV

Part I begins here:

I left off showing how working to end voter suppression in California shrank the California Republicans down to about 30% of the electorate.
1/ The states most likely to follow CA’s lead share CA’s demographics. Looking at you, Texas.

CA’s white population is about 37%. In Texas, the white population is about 42%.

Aside: Turn Texas blue with its 38 electoral votes and you end the GOP’s electoral college advantage.
2/ States with a large number of non-whites are in the South and Southwest.

Red states in the South are really voter suppression states⤵️

Makes sense, right? Shrink a white nationalist party by working on the voter suppression problem and mobilizing minority communities.
Read 29 tweets
Teri Kanefield Profile picture
7 Sep
(Thread) The Future of the GOP: Part III

Part I begins here:

I left off my history with the period of relative harmony between the parties, from about 1920 until the 1950s.

Then on May 17, 1954, the Supreme Court decided Brown v. Board of Education.
1/ Brown is one of the most important cases in U.S. history. It declared racial segregation in schools illegal and paved the way for racial equality.

Charles Houston, Thurgood Marshall, and their team worked for decades to overturn Plessy.
2/ I’ll cite my own book as a source. Why not, right?

Brown v. Board also marked the end of the era of civility between the two parties.

Shortly after Brown v. Board was decided, Rosa Parks refused to give up her seat to a white man, sparking the modern civil rights movement.
Read 30 tweets
Teri Kanefield Profile picture
7 Sep
(Thread) The Future of the GOP, Part II

Part I is here⤵️

To have a sense of what might be in store for a white grievance party with a shrinking base, I think we need to see where we've been.

History offers possibilities and perspective.
So first, some history.
1/ The drafters of the Constitution imagined no political parties. Our two-party system developed under George Washington.

The first two parties were the Democratic-Republicans (Thomas Jefferson’s party) and Hamilton’s Federalists.

[Sources⤵️Also my Making of America series.]
2/ The Democratic-Republicans were mostly Southern and favored an agricultural economy.

They wanted a small federal government. They feared a strong central government would end slavery and infringe on individual liberty. (Yeah, I know. It’s a contradiction.)
Read 23 tweets
Teri Kanefield Profile picture
6 Sep
(Thread) The Future of the GOP: Part I

The GOP is on a collision course with time.

Its base of voters is aging and shrinking. The GOP has become a white grievance party fueled by fear-mongering right-wing media.

Meanwhile, the democratic coalition is expanding.
1/ These stats are from the census bureau (Screenshot #1)
census.gov/library/storie…

These stats are from Pew (Screenshot #2)

In 2018, young people had the largest increase in voter turnout.

The GOP sees this and knows that its medium and long-term prospects are poor.
2/ These stats are from Steven Levitsky’s lecture:

The GOP understands as soon as they lose power, inevitable legislative changes will make minority rule harder.

Hence, the desperation that leads to lawbreaking as they seek to solidify minority power.
Read 17 tweets

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