Below is a 90 year chart of the S&P 500 divided by Gold ratio. The Series 65 (Registered Investment Advisor Exam) has almost no mention of Gold's proven diversification qualities for portfolios, even though Gold outperformed stocks during the decades of 1930s (deflation), 1970s..
..(inflation), & 2000s (2 financial crises). Most RIAs are sticking with the traditional 60-40 portfolio, hoping bonds will diversify equity risk, despite the fact that yields are at the lowest level in the history of the Republic. The exam asks if you expect inflation to occur..
..what should you recommend? The correct answer is stocks. The 60-40 portfolio lost 70% purchasing power in the 1970s. If you had expected inflation, that would have been horrible investment advice. A closer look at the ratio, shows Gold has begun major moves vs. stocks in the..
..past 2 financial crises. We are now in the 3rd recession since 2000; since March's lows stocks have outperformed Gold as the Feds purchases of financial assets have supported stocks. Over the past 2 weeks, the Fed has signaled rates will stay near 0, even if inflation rises...
...through the Feds 2% target. An even closer look at the S&P 500/Gold ratio suggests this short term rise is about done. Indeed, over the past 2 weeks, Gold has continually bounced off of it's lows, even with weakness in the S&P 500. It is our opinion, that Gold will prove to...
..be the better hedge to stocks, going forward as the Fed is allowing money supply to surge: the polar opposite monetary policy that Paul Volcker used to defeat inflation in the 1970s.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Garic Moran

Garic Moran Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @GaricMoran

12 Aug
Yesterday, Gold experienced its worse day in 7 years. Wall Street & Financial Media would like you to believe this occurred do to an improving economy. The 10 Year Note rose from last weeks lows of .5% to .65%. The $ rallied all of 1%; make no mistake about it, this was an...
...organized intervention in the Gold market. Would any rational investor decide to sell their Gold for the next 10 years and own a Treasury at .65% vs. .5%, with the Federal Reserve increasing money supply at a 20% + annual rate? Treasury wants you to buy Bonds, Wall Street..
..wants you to buy their bankrupt derivatives paper, so they can get their bonus. The Fed wants to believe they are the wizard of Oz (nothing to see behind that curtain). Unfortunately, the vast majority of U.S. investors are momentum investors. They will look at yesterdays...
Read 5 tweets
8 Feb
The 2 most important real time indicators Nonfarm Payrolls & ISM Manufact., both pointed to a successful soft landing. Anyone who actually read the reports should have immediately dismissed them. Both had clear caveats in the opening paragraphs about new seasonal adjustments...
..So where does the U.S. economy actually stand. Leading indicators are at the same level as '01 & '08 hard landings as well as '11 & '16 soft landings. The last 3 yield curve inversions all led to recessions in the next 6-12 months; this continues to warn...
...If the yield curve inversion works as a leading indicator, it would be through the interaction of bank lending. Currently bank credit is overwhelmingly going into mortgages & Treasury's. Commercial & Industrial lending peaked early last summer before the yield curve inverted..
Read 10 tweets
14 Dec 19
I just finished reading Doug Noland’s summary of the Federal Reserve’s Q3 2019 Z1: creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com . Here are my thoughts: total credit outstanding grew another $3.2T over the past year to $74.6T (348% of GDP); this is 4X the rate of GDP. Even J. Powell says this is not..
..sustainable; Austrian economists call it a credit bubble, but this bubble is still expanding. Since foreigners stopped acquiring U.S. debt, U.S. financial markets and banking system need to finance this expansion or it reverses & pops. Banks, brokers, money markets, & hedge..
..funds securities holdings surged over the past year. Ominously repo liabilities grew $932B over the past year, which means borrowing money to finance this credit expansion has accelerated as it did in 2007. In Q3 banks repo assets actually declined $23B as they are now..
Read 9 tweets
23 Nov 19
Polar opposites: My first job in the investment field was as an intern at a local brokerage firm in New Orleans in the summer of 1981. At that time the Federal Reserve was a couple of years into targeting money supply. President Carter had nominated Paul Volcker Jr. as...
..Fed Chairman in August of 1979. The $'s status as the reserve currency of the world was in serious doubt. U.S. investors convinced that inflation would never come down were dumping Treasury's at any price & panicking into Gold, which peaked in January of 1980 @ $875...
...18 months later in the summer of 1981, all traders were transfixed Thursday afternoons with the release of the money supply report. Interest rates & Gold would move the following morning, rates were floating; the Fed was targeting money supply! The Fed had already allowed.
Read 19 tweets
9 Nov 19
As a person dumb enough to trade precious metals futures professionally for the past 20 years, here is my 2 cents worth about the current correction in AU & AG. Anyone who thinks commercials have total control over pricing is wrong. If that were true AU & AG would be at $0....
...bankers, both primary & central always short rallies, yet the price of AU went from $300 to $1900, between 2001 & 2011. There are 3 huge events which have occurred recently. 1) Commercial short interest is at a record and increasing as we fall through moving averages...
..& conversely speculative long position has risen as AU breached its moving averages; this is not how trend following CTA's operate & thus essily manipulated by nefarious bullion banks. With 2 of the largest US macro funds openly bullish for AU, it is possible they are adding..
Read 12 tweets
5 Oct 19
Treasury Notes & Bonds are the biggest bubble of our lifetime. Despite massive Treasury Bond Supply, Notes & Bonds have had a remarkable year. After an awful employment report and a major revision to last year's reports; Chair Powell claimed employment was strong: Bonds tanked!
Commercial Banks have bought a record amount of Treasury's over the past 12 months. IMO, they are front running the Fed as they know the Fed has their back & will buy these securities off of them if necessary.
With massive exposure to Treasury Notes & Bonds, this bubble was in danger of popping. After one of the worst weeks in years in bonds, repo rates spiked the following Monday. By the 23rd the NY Fed had pledged $165B support to financial markets!
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!