, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Treasury Notes & Bonds are the biggest bubble of our lifetime. Despite massive Treasury Bond Supply, Notes & Bonds have had a remarkable year. After an awful employment report and a major revision to last year's reports; Chair Powell claimed employment was strong: Bonds tanked!
Commercial Banks have bought a record amount of Treasury's over the past 12 months. IMO, they are front running the Fed as they know the Fed has their back & will buy these securities off of them if necessary.
With massive exposure to Treasury Notes & Bonds, this bubble was in danger of popping. After one of the worst weeks in years in bonds, repo rates spiked the following Monday. By the 23rd the NY Fed had pledged $165B support to financial markets!
Predictably, the bond bubble pop, stopped in it's tracks. If the NY Fed had not intervened, higher repo rates would have quickly popped the corporate credit bubble (both Junk Bonds & Leveraged Loans) as no one could afford 10% overnight financing!
Yesterday the NY Fed overnight funding offer expanded to $280B. In an over-leveraged economy with rapidly decelerating economic activity, the demand for overnight funding surges as witnessed in 2007-2008.
Once the debt ceiling was passed Treasury Bill Supply began to surge; Treasury Debt Outstanding is up an amazing $800B over the past 2 months. This supply was in the process of popping the Treasury Bond Rally, which would have crowded out all other corporate financing.
Yesterday, Chair Powell said the greatest risk to the U.S. economy was too low inflation; the New York Fed pledged $280B in overnight financing. The 1 week Treasury correction stopped in it's tracks and the Bond Bull lives. The Fed has begun the most aggressive policy in history!
With a decelerating economy Treasury Supply will continue to surge. The New York Fed will do whatever it takes to support financial assets. With a $2T deficit on the way, no one understands how much the Fed will have to MONETIZE; M2 has begun to spike!
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