The 2 most important real time indicators Nonfarm Payrolls & ISM Manufact., both pointed to a successful soft landing. Anyone who actually read the reports should have immediately dismissed them. Both had clear caveats in the opening paragraphs about new seasonal adjustments...
..So where does the U.S. economy actually stand. Leading indicators are at the same level as '01 & '08 hard landings as well as '11 & '16 soft landings. The last 3 yield curve inversions all led to recessions in the next 6-12 months; this continues to warn... 
...If the yield curve inversion works as a leading indicator, it would be through the interaction of bank lending. Currently bank credit is overwhelmingly going into mortgages & Treasury's. Commercial & Industrial lending peaked early last summer before the yield curve inverted..
..It is embarrassing to me that I can not trust the BLS employment stats. This is no conspiracy, after the '08 hard landing began they revised their data lower. The fact that the BLS revised 516K yesterday is a warning. So how are the economically sensitive sectors doing?..
..Trade, Transportation, & Wharehouse employment is warning (this includes the Amazon effect). Manufacturing Employment & Construction Employment are also warning...
...as you are aware, my favorite leading indicator of employment is Temp Help. This hasnow gone past the warning stage, IMO. The ASA Temp Help Index is now down longer & further than the '16 soft landing & the beginning of the '08 recession..
...so it all comes down to Personal Consumption. The latest Personal Consumption stats show a rebound in PCE, YOY. But, last December's consumption fell off the cliff as the stock market tanked. So it all comes down to financial conditions. To argue that the Fed cannot control..
...financial conditions seems naive at this point in time. (they have been succesful for 9 years). The U.S. economy is now totally dependent on an ever expanding Federal Reserve Balance sheet. The Fed's balance sheet growth has stalled recently...
...It is not surprising to me that the yield curve is signaling slower economic growth (even before the virus). The U.S. economy remains at stall speed. Any sustained tightening in financial conditions will lead to a '01/'08 hard landing. My macro conclusion is the Fed is very..
..close to resuming balance sheet expansion. The recent decline in open interest in Gold suggests the Gold market may be coming to the same conclusion: #Gotgold?
