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11 Sep, 22 tweets, 7 min read
🧵 1/ A Chinese stmt claims Indian external affairs minister said Indian policy twd China has not changed. This might be wishful thinking or hope on Beijing's part.

While India's app ban has got a lot of attention, this thread lists the no. of other steps 🇮🇳 has taken or floated
2/ These Indian policies stem from concerns that COVID19 & the boundary crisis hv intensified re:
- economic overdependence on/exposure to China
- inroads that Chinese companies have made into certain sensitive sectors
- China’s avenues of influence in India
3/ The announced & reported policy measures (if not reversed) will have the effect of restricting & scrutinize Chinese activities in a no. of Indian sectors
- economic
- technology
- telecommunications
- public diplomacy
- education
- civil society
4/ Pre-boundary crisis, India first announced FDI restrictions from countries that share a land boundary with India—a move clearly directed against China
5/ Also, pre- & post-PLA's moves at the boundary, there have been reports of the Indian government is considering extra scrutiny or restrictions on Foreign Portfolio Investment from China as well:
- bit.ly/3ikixEh
- reuters.com/article/us-ind…
6/ The Indian government has also amended public procurement rules “to enable imposition of restrictions on bidders from countries which share a land border with India” on defence and national security grounds
pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa…
7/ The Indian government's online procurement platform now requires vendors to identify the country of origin of products bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
8/ Road Transport, Highways & MSME minister Nitin Gadkari said, “imports from China will be discouraged.” He indicated that, within his portfolio, Chinese cos. could be excluded from future road construction projects
ndtv.com/india-news/won…
9/ The central government moves have implications for state governments too. One state had indicated in June they'd been told to hold on new Chinese involvement in projects
10/ There is also an impact on procurement at state level
11/ Delhi has also been reportedly considering further measures to curb and scrutinize imports
financialexpress.com/economy/eye-on…
12/ Also "New Delhi is considering measures to prevent trade partners mainly in Southeast Asia from re-routing Chinese goods to India with little added value" reuters.com/article/us-ind…
13/ There are have also been reports that Indian state-owned oil companies will no longer use Chinese tankers to ship crude oil or petroleum products bloombergquint.com/global-economi…
14/ Then there was the famous India ban of Chinese apps (there hv been 3 rounds of this)

And keep in mind that Chinese tech cos. will also be affected by the investment restrictions
15/ On the telecom side, state-owned firms BSNL and MTNL canceled a tender issued in March to upgrade their 4G networks. The revised tender is expected to exclude Chinese firms Huawei and ZTE from bidding to provide equipment deccanherald.com/national/bsnl-…
16/ There are also reports that the Indian government is ready to use investment restrictions to exclude Chinese companies (think Huawei) from India’s 5G trials bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
17/ Delhi also seems to be considering/providing incentives for Indian & foreign companies to manufacture in India, and to reduce dependence on Chinese imports in particular sectors like solar power, electronics and pharmaceuticals.
livemint.com/industry/energ…
18/ On pharma: "India, a global hub for generic drugs, has launched a new scheme to boost production of active pharmaceutical ingredients that are greatly dependent on the Chinese supply chain" business-standard.com/article/compan…
19/ India's also considering incentive packages to attract companies looking to diversify from China
- bit.ly/2Rh2Phm
- economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/hardware/…
20/ Also Delhi reportedly
- requiring prior security clearance for visas for Chinese biz, civil society, academic professionals
- Indian institutions’ & universities’ agmts w/ Chinese organizations, esp Hanban, being reviewed & likely to be discouraged
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
21/ Will keep updating this thread, but some concerns raised abt steps:
- come w costs, esp as GoI dealing w COVID econ fallout
- import disruptions/higher costs cld affect cos. GoI is trying to attract/keep (esp manufacturing)
- cld delib/inadvertently hit non-China foreign cos.
22/ "India has culled a $29.8 million contract placed three years ago with Chinese port crane maker Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Co Ltd"
thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logist…

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More from @tanvi_madan

Tanvi Madan Profile picture
1 Sep
1/ Supply Chain Resilience Initiative.

- Australia, India, Japan econ ministers meet
- Initiative to be launched later this year
- Encourage other countries who are like minded on this to join
- Business, academia important in achieving goals

Joint Stmt: pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa…
2/ #SCRI Australia, India, Japan lay out the landscape:
"In light of the COVID-19 crisis & the recent global-scale changes in the econ & tech landscape, the Ministers underscored the necessity & potential to enhance the resiliency of supply chains in the Indo-Pacific region"
3/ #SCRI Australia, India, Japan lay out the goal: "determination to take a lead in delivering a free, fair, inclusive, non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable trade and investment environment and in keeping their markets open" 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇯🇵
Read 7 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
23 Jul
🇨🇳🇮🇳 More Indian economic restrictions on the country that shall not be named (China):

Indian govt amends public procurement rules "to enable imposition of restrictions on bidders from countries which share a land border with India" on defence & national security grounds
Link to Indian Finance Ministry press release re amendment of public procurement rules imposing restrictions from China (w/o naming China): pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa…
The links to the annexes in @FinMinIndia press release re public procurement rules amendment aren't working. But the new restrictions do not apply to bidders from countries bordering India to which GoI extends lines of credit or where there are GoI development projects (🇧🇩🇧🇹🇲🇲🇳🇵)
Read 6 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
22 Jul
🧵 1/ @IndiaToday has a set of essays on "Resetting India's China Policy." I was asked to write about the China-India boundary crisis's impact on US-India relations. A few things that the piece highlights...
indiatoday.in/magazine/cover…
2/ I note that the impact of 🇮🇳🇨🇳 crisis on 🇺🇸🇮🇳will depend on:
- how the border crisis plays out
- Washington’s responsiveness &, over time, its China’s policy
- whether or not India can overcome the hesitations of history that have dogged its relationship with the US
3/ Recent Indian PMs (ABV, MMS, NM) hv seen the strategic logic in managing China thru a closer partnership w the US, which helps all 3 elements of India's China strategy:
- engaging 🇨🇳 (leverage)
- internal balancing (bldg capabilities)
- external balancing (network of partners)
Read 15 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
16 Jul
1/ One of the things that's interesting about the Indian effort to create distance between Russia & China is that it's the reverse of what happened in the past. In 1968-1970 & then in mid-to-late 1970s, it was Moscow trying to keep Delhi distant from Beijing.
🇨🇳🇮🇳🇷🇺
2/ One of the little known facts is that Indian efforts at a China rapprochement preceded Nixon's. After having demonstrated the Indian military's mettle in the 1967 Sikkim skirmishes, Indira Gandhi publicly signaled a willingness to revisit China ties.
3/ Why did Indira Gandhi want to stabilize rels w/ China in 68-70 & then post-1971 war? She felt heightened tensions w China:
- required considerable investment in defense
- kept India dependent on US, USSR (later this became over-dependence on USSR, which she didn't like)
Read 6 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
29 Jun
In a significant move, the Indian govt, w/o naming China, has banned 59 [Chinese] mobile apps "which are prejudicial to sovereignty and integrity of India, defence of India, security of state and public order" [no. 1 on the list: #TikTok]
2/ Re Chinese retaliation, there will be particular Indian tech cos. who do biz in China that might be hurt, but this is one area where PRC not giving cos. mkt access limits their 1-to-1 leverage. & Chinese capital going into India into tech cos. hasn't been a favor but cuz of $$
3/ But GOI's move might cause some heartburn among other foreign cos. w digital presence in India. Might be concerned abt precedent & on future emph on domestic vs foreign cos. Much like #SelfReliance that seems directed vs China, this might take some reassuring broader audiences
Read 5 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
28 Jun
🧵 THREAD: There’s been a lot of debate re the impact of India-China devps on US-India rels. Debate seems to swing from non-alignment to alliance. Two points:
- Pay attention to the in-between "alignment" space
- Non-alignment ≠ no alignment 1/
2/ India’s history shows that while it might hv a “strategic inhibition” (h/t @thomaswright08) vs alignment, there hasn’t been a “strategic taboo” vs it.
My book indeed looks at the conditions under which India aligned vs China:
- w/ the US (from 1962)
- w/ the USSR (from 1971)
3/ India aligns or tilts when:
- faces a clear & present challenge
- unable to deal with it on its own
- desire to diversify dependence on multiple partners thwarted
- a willing partner/set of partners to tilt toward
- leadership has sufficient political capacity to tilt/align
Read 13 tweets

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