Thread by @pmdfoster

These are desperate times, but clinging to any strands of hope @BorisJohnson sets up so many outrageous straw men you could - just about - see it as creating the space for a deal 1/

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…

@BorisJohnson The hyperbolic "blockade" he mentions is driven the the fact that the Protocol (that he signed, I know) says that IF the two sides can't agree which goods are 'at risk' of going across the border into the Single Market then the default is that all of them are /2

@BorisJohnson This has arguable allowed the EU to be lazy - play hardball - since it can always fall back on the default.

The Internal Market Bill moves to close this avenue off - which in theory could change that negotiating dynamic, but in the process has just blown the negotiations up. /3

@BorisJohnson Nonetheless IF the Joint Committee did agree an acceptable slim 'at risk' register then @BorisJohnson could claim victory. Huzzah my friends, we have lifted the blockade! So feed the seige mentality and then take the credit for saving the citizenry. /4

@BorisJohnson Which is to say, the actual practical handling issues border issues in the NIP - the level of 'at risk goods', the exit summary decs NI-GB - are resolvable in the Joint Committee. But to do that Mr Johnson needs to take his gun off the table. Until then, hard to see EU talking/5

@BorisJohnson The other problem - which Mr Johnson conspicuously doesn't mention - is the State Aid portion of the Irish Protocol (which he signed, I know) which is also a huge problem because of its 'reach back' into the UK state aid decisions. /6

@BorisJohnson That means that even after Brexit, with a Canada-style FTA in your pocked, the EU would still have 'reach' over state aid decisions on GB matters because of their indirect impact over Northern Ireland. You can see that's tricky, but again, that was the deal /7

@BorisJohnson And as I reported this morning in @FT the implications were very clearly spelled out. The document I have notes the "ministerial mandate dating from the renegotations" to limit reach-back on State Aid. They knew perfectly well what the deal was /8

ft.com/content/de1af5…

@BorisJohnson @FT Again, this COULD be addressed if the European Commission gave explicit guidance perhaps on the way it would interpret Art 10 - but again, in this poisoned atmosphere, the Mr Johnson sitting there with his legislative revolver locked and loaded? Mmmm./9

@BorisJohnson @FT Which brings us to the other part - the EU-UK FTA - because that is of course hugely important to unlocking the Protocol management. A zero tariff, zero quota deal makes the whole thing a lot easier - but to do that the UK needs to do a deal on level playing field/State aid /10

@BorisJohnson @FT Which is where things get ugly, because the Protcol Mr Johnson signed was in a Withdrawal Agreement in tandem with a Political Declaration that promised a deep and comprehensive trade partnership with LPF guarantees - an ambition Mr Johnson has now junked. /11

@BorisJohnson @FT The result is that the Protocol Mr Johnson signed would risk partially neutering the very freedoms on state subsidies that his 'barebones' deals aspires to deliver (for reasons never really explained other than some vague stuff about UK tech start ups).../12

@BorisJohnson @FT Rocks and hard places, but we when Mr Johnson say he "cannot leave the theoretical power to carve up our country – to divide it – in the hands of an international organisation" the absurdity is that that is exactly what HE DID! /13

@BorisJohnson @FT Indeed so silly is this piece that - and at risk of clutching at straws - you could just read it as a way of repolishing the turd.

If a deal can be done (and it still can, in theory, poisoned politics aside) then Mr Johnson will have successfully knocked down his straw men/14

@BorisJohnson @FT My worry is that the Internal Market Bill is drafted in a way that doesn't speak to this being a tactical ploy. And we await to see the Finance Bill that will cover tariffs.

In any event, it's a very long way back down the hill now, for both sides. Good weekend. ENDS