@IHME_UW projections for cumulative #COVID19 deaths globally by January 1st are 2.8 million; this is 1.9 million deaths from now until the end of the year. 1/7
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…
Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 2 million, or 769,871 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 41% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year. 2/7
If a herd immunity strategy is pursued – meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1 – then the death toll could increase to 4 million, this would be 3.1 million more deaths from now to the end of the year. 3/7
healthdata.org/sites/default/…
Over the last week, global cases have begun to trend up slightly with considerable day-to-day fluctuation due to reporting biases by day of week. 4/7
Reported deaths have continued to decline since the second week of August, reaching about 5,500 deaths per day. The mismatch in trends between cases and deaths is partly related to the surge of cases in Europe without an associated increase in deaths yet. 5/7
Hotspots, best assessed by the daily death rate, are concentrated in the southeast US, northern states in Mexico, and in a corridor from Colombia through to Argentina. 6/7
Intensified transmission, measured using effective R in addition to the ongoing epidemics in the Americas, is notable in a number of countries including Spain, France, Greece, Ukraine, Turkey, most states in India and Indonesia. 7/7

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More from @AliHMokdad

20 Sep
IHME’s latest forecasts indicate that #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1 has increased in @WHOEMRO from 165,847 last week to 182,311. As of today, about 56,681 deaths have occurred in the region, and our estimates suggest 125,630 deaths from now until January 1. 1/30
If mask wearing in public increases to 95%, there will be around 99,217 deaths, and about 83,094 lives could be saved. This is about a 66% reduction in the number of deaths expected between now and January 1. 2/30
If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, we estimate 201,761 deaths by Jan 1. 3/30
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…
Read 30 tweets
12 Sep
@IHME_UW now projects a total of 415,090 #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1st (most likely scenario); 611,784 (worst case scenario); and 298,589 (best case scenario). 1/22
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
The new 415,000 US #COVID19 death projection by January 1 represents a more than doubling of deaths over the past six months. 2/22
But no matter where the US is now, we have the tools to save thousands of lives moving forward. The science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limiting social gatherings all help prevent infection. 3/22
Read 22 tweets
5 Sep
@IHME_UW projects that the number of cumulative deaths globally expected by January 1 is 2.8 million; this is 1.9 million deaths from now until the end of the year. We expect daily global deaths to reach nearly 30,000 a day in December. 1/15
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…
If a herd immunity strategy is pursued – namely no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1, then the death toll could increase to 4 million compared to the reference scenario. This would be 1.2 million more deaths from now to the end of the year. 2/15
Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the world. It would decrease the cumulative death toll to 2.0 million, or 770,000 lives saved, a 27% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year. 3/15
Read 15 tweets
4 Sep
.@IHME_UW now projects 410,451 #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1st, this is about 224,000 deaths from now until the end of the year. These are not numbers or statistics but family member, friends, and loved ones. 1/14
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the US, 95% mask use would decrease the death toll to 288,000. This is 122,000 lives saved, a 54% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year. 2/14
If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000. This would be 210,000 more deaths than our reference scenario. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
21 Aug
A summary of @IHME latest @ #COVID19 projections in United States of America 1/17
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
.@IHME_UW is now projecting 310,000 cumulative deaths by Dec 1st, an increase of about 15,000 from the previous forecast on Aug 6. As of today we have lost 175,000 lives, we could lose approximately 137,000 more. 2/17
Increasing mask use in the US to 95% through measures such as state and/or federal mandates with penalties and/or a concerted public information campaign would save 69,000 lives by Dec 1st. 3/17
Read 12 tweets
6 Aug
What is the status of the #COVID19 pandemic in the US? Follow me if interested to know what @IHME_UW is projecting and why. 1/20
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
.@IHME_UW now projects 295,011 #COVID19 deaths by Dec 1, this is an increase of about 64,000 from our latest projection of 230,822 for Nov 1st, this increase is of 20K by Nov 1st and 44K due to extending our forecast to Dec 1st. 2/20
If 95% of the people in the US were to wear masks when leaving their homes, that total number would decrease to 228,271 deaths, more than 66,000 lives would be saved. 3/20
Read 20 tweets

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