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Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
@AliHMokdad
Sep 13, 2020 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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@IHME_UW projections for cumulative #COVID19 deaths globally by January 1st are 2.8 million; this is 1.9 million deaths from now until the end of the year. 1/7
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…
Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 2 million, or 769,871 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 41% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year. 2/7
If a herd immunity strategy is pursued – meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1 – then the death toll could increase to 4 million, this would be 3.1 million more deaths from now to the end of the year. 3/7
healthdata.org/sites/default/…
Over the last week, global cases have begun to trend up slightly with considerable day-to-day fluctuation due to reporting biases by day of week. 4/7
Reported deaths have continued to decline since the second week of August, reaching about 5,500 deaths per day. The mismatch in trends between cases and deaths is partly related to the surge of cases in Europe without an associated increase in deaths yet. 5/7
Hotspots, best assessed by the daily death rate, are concentrated in the southeast US, northern states in Mexico, and in a corridor from Colombia through to Argentina. 6/7
Intensified transmission, measured using effective R in addition to the ongoing epidemics in the Americas, is notable in a number of countries including Spain, France, Greece, Ukraine, Turkey, most states in India and Indonesia. 7/7

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More from @AliHMokdad

Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Sep 14, 2022
Our new @IHME_UW #COVID19 projections are out. Estimated infections are declining and reported cases have remained roughly stable in the US overall. 1/
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cu…
Given the widespread use of rapid antigen tests, we estimate the infection-detection rate has declined to nearly 4%. With such a low infection-detection rate, the BA.5 surge that likely peaked in mid-July may have infected a substantial fraction of the population. 2/ Image
This surge, combined with vaccination, suggests that there is considerable immunity to Omicron in most US states. Waning immunity, combined with increased probability of transmission in the fall and winter, will lead to a surge in infections in the late fall and winter. 3/ Image
Read 15 tweets
Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Mar 22, 2022
@IHME_UW does not project a #COVID19 surge in the US in the coming weeks similar to what we have seen in parts of Europe. Our models suggest that after the end of March there should be a steady further decline in transmission. 1/ Image
Estimated infections, reported cases, hospital census, and daily deaths continue to decline. Despite a steady return to pre #COVID19 behaviors, transmission continues to decline. 2/ Image
Data reporting in some states is becoming less frequent, and we are detecting more and more anomalies in some states’ data as attention may be turning elsewhere. 3/
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
Read 10 tweets
Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Jan 16, 2022
The #Omicron surge is creating unprecedented levels of transmission: the daily infections are estimated to have reached 125 million, ten times the #Delta wave peak in April 2021. @IHME_UW 1/
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cu…
The massive surge in infections, however, is not leading to a 10x increase in deaths because #Omicron is 90-99% less severe. Lower severity is due to three factors: 1) the fraction of people with asymptomatic infection is up from 40% to 80-90%; 2/
2) among those who have symptomatic infections, the hospitalization rate is down 40-60%; and 3) among those hospitalized, the fraction requiring intubation and/or dying is down 80-90%. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Jan 14, 2022
#Omicron is likely to have spread to nearly all countries by now. The larger fraction asymptomatic means that the massive surge in infections will lead to a smaller but sill unprecedented increase in reported cases. 1/
Hospitalizations will increase, and in some countries this increase will lead to higher levels of hospitalization than in previous surges, including the Delta wave and the Northern Hemisphere winter surge last year. 2/
Extremely high rates above 10% PCR positive of pre-admission screening in hospitals of individuals without #COVID19 symptoms in various parts of the US confirm the intense transmission in the community. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Jan 9, 2022
@IHME_UW new projections show that daily estimated #COVID19 infections has peaked at 6.2 million on 1/6 in the US, but daily cases will rise to nearly 1.2 million by 1/19, 2022. The infection-detection rate has declined to 22% on January 3. 1/
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
Our model projects 905,000 cumulative reported deaths due to #COVID19 on 5/1, this represents 79,000 additional deaths from 1/3 to 5/1. Daily reported deaths will rise to 1,930 by 1/24, 2022. 2/
Daily hospital census including incidental admissions with #COVID19 will rise to 273,000 by January 25, 2022. We estimate that 57% of people in United States of America have been infected at least once as of January 3. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Jan 7, 2022
No amount of media training can fix bad messaging, @CDCDirector. The root of this problem, the problem of back and forth messaging coming out of the @CDC_gov, cannot be fixed by one individual working on their personal communication skills. 1/
cnn.com/2022/01/07/pol…
It worries me that @CDCDirector told @CNN: "We actually don't know how our rapid tests perform and how well they predict whether you're transmissible during the end of disease." We need to know how well rapid tests perform at this point in the pandemic. 2/
Is it 5 days or 10 days of isolation after you test positive for #COVID19? Americans shouldn't be making their best guess because of waffling guidance. end/
Read 9 tweets

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