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Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
@charles_gaba
Sep 13, 2020 • 23 tweets • 23 min read • Read on X
📣 Fundraising update: We’re just $370,000 away from raising $2 MILLION to elect Dems and flip seats up & down the ballot! 1/ Image
Usually I start with my #FlipTheSenate page or state legislative pages...this time, I want to give a shout-out to some OAKLAND COUNTY, MI races! (especially Karen McDonald for Prosecutor and Kelly Dillaha for Commissioner District 12!) 2/
secure.actblue.com/donate/blueoak…
Speaking of which, if you happen to live in Oakland County and want a high-quality #BidenHarris lawn sign, donate $25 to @OaklandDems...if you live in my neck of the woods I might even deliver it personally! 3/
secure.actblue.com/donate/ocdpbid…
Here in Michigan, we flipped 5 House seats in 2018 and need just 4 more to #FlipMIHouseBlue. Donate to these races today! I strongly recommend @VotePulver, @voteKellyBreen, @VoteBreadonMI43, @JodyLamacchia and @barbanness2020. /3 #DemCast #DemCastMI 4/
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
Dems are also just 4 seats away from taking control of the Iowa state House! Help #FlipIAHouseBlue by donating to these races today! /5 #DemCast #DemCastIA
secure.actblue.com/donate/flipiab…
Democrats already hold the Minnesota state House, but if we flip just 2 more seats in the Senate we’ll have a trifecta! Help #FlipMNSenateBlue by donating to these races today! /6 #DemCast #DemCastMN
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
In Arizona, Democrats have a good chance of flipping BOTH the state House (2 seats) *and* Senate (3 seats). 7/ Donate to #FlipAZBlue today! #DemCast #DemCastAZ
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
Wisconsin's horrific gerrymandering makes it a tough nut to crack, but Dems have a narrow chance at flipping the state Senate and can make gains in the state House. Donate to #FlipWIBlue today! #DemCast #DemCastWI 8/ secure.actblue.com/donate/makewib…
Ohio isn't gonna be easy, but with great candidates, some luck and your support, we can bring it back from the brink. Help #FlipOHBlue by donating to these races today! 9/ #DemCast #DemCastOH
secure.actblue.com/donate/flipohb…
Florida's legislature has been a GOP lock for a long time, but the state Senate is within reach. Plus, boosting turnout for state races helps #BidenHarris win the state as well! Donate to these races today to help #FlipFLBlue: 10/ #DemCast #DemCastFL
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
The odds are long on the Georgia legislature, but w/the right candidates & a lot of support we have a shot! Boosting state race turnout also helps #BidenHarris, @ossoff, @ReverendWarnock etc. Donate to help #FlipGABlue today! 11/ #DemCast #DemCastGA secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
Democrats have a real shot at flipping BOTH the House *and* Senate in North Carolina this year! They need to flip 6 House and 5 Senate seats to #FlipNCBlue and PASS MEDICAID EXPANSION with @RoyCooperNC! Donate to these races today: 12/ #DemCast #DemCastNC secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
Flipping the Pennsylvania *Senate* will require nabbing 5 seats. The PA *House* is a larger job (9 seats) but both are doable. Donate to these races to help #FlipPABlue today! 13/ #DemCast #DemCastPA secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
Amazingly, the South Carolina state Senate is IN PLAY! Dems need to flip 5 seats to take control of it...and with @harrisonjaime giving Lindsey Graham a run for his money, we could pull it off! Donate to #FlipSCSenateBlue today! 14/ #DemCast #DemCastSC secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
Even more eyebrow-raising, the West Virginia state Senate could be flipped if everything goes right. Help make that happen and #FlipWVSenateBlue by donating to these races today: 15/ #DemCast #DemCastWV secure.actblue.com/donate/flipwvb…
📣 JUST ADDED: KANSAS! That's right, by popular demand, I've added 2 dozen of the most competitive KS state house races! I'm still tweaking this list so there may be a few changes, but if you want Medicaid expansion, donate today! 16/ #DemCast #DemCastKS secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
This year has reminded us how vitally important GOVERNORS (#COVID19 response), ATTORNEYS GENERAL (defending the #ACA) and SECRETARIES OF STATE (protecting voting rights & election integrity) are! Donate to elect #MoreDemExecs today! 17/ #DemCast secure.actblue.com/donate/gov_ag_…
OK, onto the CONGRESSIONAL races: Democrats flipped the U.S. House in 2018. Now we have to make sure to KEEP control of it! These are the 40 most vulnerable House Dems; donate today to #KeepTheHouseBlue: 18/ #DemCast secure.actblue.com/donate/keepthe…
We flipped 40 U.S. House seats in 2018, but left dozens more on the table, coming up just a few hundred votes short in some cases! Donate to these swing district races to #ExpandTheBlueHouse today! 19/ #DemCast secure.actblue.com/donate/expandt…
There are dozens more House races which are a much tougher grind, but with the right candidates, a lot of luck and your support (financial or otherwise), we could pull off a few surprises! Donate to help Dems #CompeteEverywhere today! 20/ #DemCast secure.actblue.com/donate/compete…
As long as I'm at it, we should really #LeaveNoDemBehind! These candidates are running in the deepest red districts, but they shouldn't be abandoned. Donate today! 21/ #DemCast secure.actblue.com/donate/compete…
FINALLY, Of course we need to #FlipTheSenate! Some of these are already swimming in money; consider other great candidates like @harrisonjaime, @BarbaraBollier, @DrAlGrossAK and @mjhegar as well...and don't forget @DougJones and @GaryPeters! 22/ #DemCast secure.actblue.com/donate/retakes…
P.S. Aside from the normal ActBlue processing fees, 100% of these donations go to the candidates themselves. If you happen to feel like supporting my work in ACA/healthcare policy data analysis & advocacy, you can do so here, thank you! /END
acasignups.net/donate

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More from @charles_gaba

Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 31
🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 40 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 6
(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ Image
A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…
As it happens, the aerial shot shows several presumably standard trailer vans lined up neatly in a row just outside the perimeter in the lower right.

By copying & pasting one of them, it looks like the venue runs around 7 trailer vans x 4 trailer vans. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 3
🧵📣 THE DEAD POOL: Since @JDVance wants to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about it. 1/

acasignups.net/24/10/02/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 67 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Sep 18
OH DEAR GOD.

This LITERALLY DEFEATS THE ENTIRE CONCEPT OF HEALTH INSURANCE: SHARED RISK.
AGAIN: This graph is the single most important explainer of how risk pools work & the dangers of separating people out into risk pools based on their CURRENT health.

5% of the population racks up over 50% of total healthcare spending. Image
If you throw them under the bus, healthcare costs for the other 95% of the population drops in half, except for one small problem even IF you don't care about Grandma or Cousin Fred Who Was Just Diagnosed With Cancer:

You never know when YOU'RE gonna become Cousin Fred.
Read 14 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Sep 9
So, VP @KamalaHarris has posted her official policy agenda on her campaign website. The healthcare section includes, among other solid items, making the enhanced #ACA subsidies of the IRA permanent.

Here's an idea of how important this is for over 21 MILLION Americans: 1/
The enhanced subsidies are currently scheduled to sunset at the end of 2025. If they aren't extended, they'll revert back to the original formula, which was good for those earning < 200% FPL, but mediocre for those earning 200 - 400% & NONEXISTENT for those earning over 400% FPL.
I ran state-by-state case studies to show how letting the upgraded subsidies expire would impact 5 different households at various income levels.

The results range from painful to disastrous depending on the household & where they live.
Read 19 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Aug 15
This is a Big Fucking Deal, brought to you by the Inflation Reduction Act, passed by Democrats exclusively and signed into law by President Biden.

Every Republican in Congress voted against it.
The Inflation Reduction Act is also the reason over 20 million #ACA enrollees are saving an average of $800/yr on health insurance premiums.

Unfortunately that provision is scheduled to sunset at the end of 2025 unless legislation is passed to make the savings permanent.
I’ve written up estimates of how much net premiums would jump for various households in every state starting in January 2016 if the IRA subsidy formula isn’t extended. It’s not pretty. Here’s the first 5 states: acasignups.net/24/07/09/state…
Read 5 tweets

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