Harald Profile picture
14 Sep, 12 tweets, 5 min read
1/10 🇸🇪 Graphs updated including August. Only September left and this👇🏽 graph is complete. Comparing October through August looking at all cause mortality.

Following tweets will focus on all cause mortality in Sweden:
-No adjustments
-Crude adjustments
2/10 Link to my previous thread will be in last tweet, containing more details on Swedish #covid19 data. This thread is shorter and focus on all cause mortality. Here we see January through August. 2020 similar to eg 2012, 2013 & 2015. +
3/10 Looking at rolling three months average we see that current short trend is down since spike in April and that the long trend in general is downwards as well probably due to better general health and better health services. +
4/10 Without adjusting for population growth we see that 2020 rise above average of 2015-2018 with as much as 2019 dips below, difference is 13 days of death. +
5/10 When looking at the same graph but adjusting for crude population growth the one year that is noticeable is 2019. #covid19sweden +
6/10 Additionally looking at age standardised mortality rates in Sweden between 2000 and 2020 (eurostat data week 1 through 34) we notice that so far year 2020 isn’t as apocalyptic as one would think. +
7/10 This is despite the bump between April and March due to #COVID19. Gladly we see that number of #covid19 deaths have plummeted and last 10 weeks have been at or below average deaths of 2015-2019. +
8/10 Finally two graphs looking at trend and average of past 20 years. April, as noticed above, is the month where the spike really occurred. +
9/10 It’s more pronounced when comparing to trend of past 20 years. However, both July and August have now been experiencing low all cause mortality. +
10/10 As indicated earlier👆🏽 this thread was shorter than my previous threads. More data can be found in threads linked below👇🏽
10/10.1 Additional graph to correct horisontal title in first tweet.

10/10.2 adding, thank you for input on graphs in tweet 6, 8 & 9:) @TTBikeFit

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More from @HaraldofW

7 Sep
1/4 🇸🇪 updating a few graphs, adding one additional week (35)👇🏽 follow the dark green line. At or below average of 2015-2019 for 9 consecutive weeks. Week 35 so far only recorded 10 #covid19 deaths. Will be adjusted upwards but still very few. +
2/4 Year 2020 and year 2019 continues to stay ca 13 days from average of 2015-2018 and when accounting for population growth... +
3/4 Voila... +
Read 4 tweets
22 Aug
1/4 🇸🇪 there have been speculation if 2019 with few deaths could impact the outcome of deaths 2020. What does history tell us? Instead of y2y I looked at consecutive flu seasons👇🏽and as we can see deaths increased until 2000 and then slight downward trend until 2014 and then up+
2/4 We see that most drops in all cause mortality (acm) season2season are followed by an increase the year after. Does larger drops (more than -3,37%) result in increases? Yes always during this period. Does the drop revert with equally large percentage increase? +
3/4 Well, so it seems at least. When looking at drops in three ranges we see that often a drop is followed by an on average equally large increase. 2019 had a large drop of acm which was followed by a large increase in 2020.+
Read 6 tweets
10 Aug
1/18 🇸🇪 4th update. Shorter, many aspects are similar to last update, eg age distribution of #covid19 deaths in Sweden -> ca 90% over 70 years old or that ca 70% of those deceased were either care home residents or receiving home care service as can be seen in graph below. +
2/18 Let’s start with two model projections. First the IHME model which shows that prediction of deaths were far above actual. This is continually worth reminding of because these messages were hammered into our heads by media and the #covid19 opinionados. +
3/18 Equally disastrous were the projections of ICU beds needed, hospitals were predicted to be overrun. Very good for us this did not happen and we kept below max capacity at all times. + #COVID19sverige
Read 18 tweets
17 Jul
1/5 🇸🇪 a few graphs from FoHMs latest weekly (w28) update. This graph shows (green) mild cases and (purple) severe cases of total #covid19 cases per week. + #COVID19sverige
2/5 This graph shows confirmed #covid19 cases per week and age groups. All age groups decline compared to last week. +
3/5 This graph shows number of confirmed cases in care homes. Of all confirmed cases, ca 9% have been in care homes (ca 7000). Almost half of them from Stockholm. Of confirmed care home cases, ca 38% have died.+ @Daniilgor
Read 5 tweets
7 Jul
1/25🇸🇪 Third comprehensive 🧵 compiling my graphs✍🏽 but where did it begin? Does anyone remember when stores were all out of toilet paper & #covid19 panic started to build? At that point I wanted to put things into perspective quite like @InProportion2 has done+ #COVID19sverige
2/25 but first a few words on 🇸🇪. We are a country with most of it inhabitants living in Stockholm and south of Stockholm. The north is not as densely populated as Stockholm at 5200, Gothenburg at 1300 and Malmö at 2200 individuals per square km+
3/25 our population grew with ca 16% since year 2000 and ca 20% of people living in Sweden are born abroad. Largest immigrant population is 1) Syrians and 2) Iraqi. In Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö some 20-25% are born abroad.+
Read 26 tweets
28 Jun
1/19 🇸🇪 I have updated a few of my graphs during last few days and added a couple of new ones. In order - at least for me - to make it easier to find them Ill link them to this thread + #covid19 #COVID19sverige
2/19 first adding updated comparison week 1-22 YY2000-2020 stratified per age group+ #COVID19
3/19 adding updated graph comparing months with highest mortality+
Read 19 tweets

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