Thread by @JATetro

If you’re wondering what has happened over the last few weeks in terms of the #COVID19 response and the rise in cases, all you need to do is look at the #PandemicTimeline to understand why we're here.

Also, if you want to wait for the TL;DR, at least enjoy the GIFs.

1/20

Unlike some threats, both natural and intentional that happen in an instant and then leave us trying to cope, a #pandemic is a phenomenon that lasts for months. And with each day comes new challenges to the one thing that keeps us calm, trust in those who guide us. 2/20

Normally, when people feel they have little control over their personal exposure, they trust certain authorities. Health leaders use communication to not only calm the public but also demonstrate unity in their message and spark resilience in a community. 3/20

The hope is that their message will engage the community in a united front against the microbial enemy. Also, this is designed to happen BEFORE the inevitable entrance of politics occurs. 4/20

If done right, the politicians are guardians of the process. But if the community remains divided, the politicians are pressured into doing something…anything…that will protect their society. 5/20

If they don’t do well in their messaging, their days in office may be numbered. 6/20

But as a pandemic progresses, so does the public’s vision of that “something.” At first, people just want to stay alive. Then protectionism is needed to stay safe. Then economic viability. And so on. With each change, a hidden truth to any intervention is uncovered. 7/20

Eventually, individual freedom to do whatever a person wants becomes more important than being safe. Intentional unsafe behaviour starts to spread usually in one or two age groups. 8/20

This usually aligns with the fading of the initial doom that accompanied the first days of the pandemic. The more people realize not everyone is going to get sick and most certainly not everyone is going to die, the more they want their normal back. 9/20

At the same time, more is learned about the pandemic and the original healthcare messaging may change from one of widespread protection like a lockdown to one that is targeted on safety like say, #WearAMask 10/20

In a perfect world, the transition in message would be smooth and the public will maintain that trust. Sadly, that’s usually not what happens. Instead, deviations in message are treated as breaking trust with the public. 11/20

When that happens, the public may choose to look elsewhere for answers. This could include ideology, political motivation, or quite simply, one’s own decision-making process. 12/20

And this all can happen even without the introduction of factors like conspiracy theories, xenophobia, and quack cures. These also can influence the public response away from that initial message from our once trusted health authorities. 13/20

So that brings us to where we are today. Fractured. Lost in a wave of doubt and defiance. And worst of all, the case numbers rising at the most inopportune time, back to school. 14/20

Could anything have been done to prevent this? As much as I would like to say yes, based on the #PandemicTimeline, there is little evidence that would have been effective. 15/20

After all, even back in 542 when the Justinian Plague was spreading across Europe and morality was being promoted instead of the anti-mask/vaccine/isolation/lockdown stance of today, the outcome ended up being the same as we're seeing now. I know...I know... 16/20

So, while you see the case reports and the rises happening, make sure you realize that this is all part of the #PandemicTimeline but also that in essence, it’s human nature. 17/20

And in saying that, it’s up to you to make this outcome different by following the ABCs of #COVID19 prevention and sticking with those who have your best health in mind. You know their names. You know their value. You know they can be trusted. 18/20

As for what’s to come in the #PandemicTimeline, I fear the struggle between the authorities and the public protests reaches a peak about the same time as the vaccine becomes available and our one true chance to get past this pandemic will be squandered. 19/20

So for the 20/20 vision about the #PandemicTimeline and your TL;DR...

Only unity will separate us from the past and bring us down a new timeline in which we beat #COVID19 and return to as close to normal as possible.

For more science from people you can trust, head over to the Super Awesome Science Show wherever you get your podcasts or click here to listen to Season 1.
curiouscast.ca/podcast/321/su…

Oh, and stay tuned for Season 2 coming soon...