So Powell mini-crashes stocks as markets want MOAR from him (markets never get enough do they...)
This freaked out Trump, so predictably he touts vaccines for almost immediate release (soon they will have been FDA approved in the PAST from now... 😬)
But pump didn't work, markets know it's just BS talk...
OH GOD NAZZY IS DOWN!
So Trump has to be Pelosi's best bud (he finds really hard to do), but he won't speak with Pelosi as he just can't (for some unknown reason a POTUS can't speak to another politician... OK 🤡)
2/N
So Moooonooooochin gets to be the go-between, and he actually can talk with Pelosi without one of them marching out in DISGUST AS THE OTHER SIDE IS BEING UNFAIR (cry cry cry 😢😭)
And Trump wants MOAR stimulus right now, RIGHT NOW GODDAMMIT!
BIG CHECKS!!!
3/N
So some GOP Senators start a side narrative that they 'could work with Biden, should Biden win' BUT WE WANT TRUMP TO WIN (caps for emphasis, they really did emphasise this...)
Except they will probs block any stimulus now, but that's different as above is post-election
4/N
30 Sept = need a SEPARATE agreement in Congress to get a CR so no shutdown, as, well, as shutdown now would be just what US needs...
And we should be happy Moooonooooochin and Pelosi are talking about this, BUT to be very very clear, it's TOTALLY SEPARATE to the stimulus 👍
5/N
So Pelosi knows with 100% certainty that she has the leverage now, as stocks are tanking, and Trump must get stimulus thru or he will likely lose election (he may not, but it's gonna be hard to win); so she will double down on Mail In voting asks... (oh and ask for more $)
6/N
Trump is now getting bored, so he will probs say 'fine', but now the GOP won't be onside as they are thinking longer term (from voting AND deficit standpoint), so probs no deal guys...
Unless things get even worse...
7/N
...which they might in Sept/Oct as still 13.5m+ unemployed (and this is U3 which is TOTALLY AND UTTERLY BS as a number), so everyone knows the reality is far higher than this...
But it's OK as at least the election on Nov 3 will sort everything out! Yay! 😀
8/N
...But it won't as 50% of American's are gonna be pissed either way, and neither side will accept the result (they have made this pretty clear 2 months BEFORE the election), so we are going to have lawsuits, hope RBG takes vitamins (as then it's a John Roberts swing vote)
9/N
...and John Roberts is actually a sensible guy who might even look at the particulars of the lawsuits (the other 8 justices will not, they don't care, it's 4:4 on party lines - 100% guaranteed)
So Nov/Dec/Jan will make 2000's 'hanging chads' look like a parody account
10/N
And we all hope, well I hope we all hope (!), that before 21 Jan we do indeed know who the next POTUS will be, but what really matters is whether the GOP keeps the Senate or not, as if they don't the stimulus will be $10T+ before you can say 'BRRRRRRRR' 💰💵💸💰💵💸
11/N
USD will get eviscerated, and that only means 99% of Americans get screwed, but politicians don't care about that... They are 'all good bro'
So maybe it's good if House/Senate is split on Nov 3 - but no one can say this as if you do then pretty much all people hate you :)
12/N
Despite all this, I remain bullish on humanity, but I do concede that maybe, just maybe, there will be some bumps in the road...
I'm playing defence on portfolio, living to fight (i.e. invest) another day is going to be crucial for next 6 months of madness!
Do you believe the lights will be on or off in 10 years time across N.A., Europe & APAC?
If u believe the lights will be on (as I strongly believe), & people will be heating/cooling their homes, driving their cars etc, i.e. using energy, then here's a thesis...
1/N
Energy use has correlated with human progress, and also quality of life, for hundreds of years
Every decade that passes, we do use more energy, and that's absolutely normal, and absolutely fine, assuming humans aspire to live a better life over time
2/N
For power grid, & energy distribution to work in a more anti-fragile manner, these investments form a very interesting & RELATED group (if you believe the lights will be on...)
Quick back of envelope calculation for how #ElSalvador could generate enough $BTC from mining to easily pay off interest & principle from $1B “Volcano Bond”
Vlad on the @elonmusk Clubhouse now is sinking as usual, he hasn't apologised...
AGAIN...
SMH, 101 in how not to deal with a crisis
How hard is it to say 'sorry, we let you down' as the first thing, not 'I'm the Chief Executive Officer of Robinhood'
Elon immediately cringed
But Vlad just disclosed that Robinhood has had a $3B request for cash from clearing house (I think) which they didn't have (this is new info I think), hence the raise - we all knew this, but not the number
At the heart of the $3B was the increase in VAR (as many have noted)
$3B request from the NSCC (Nat Sec Clearing Corp) and then they called the NSCC and it was reduced to $1.4B
"Today, 35 of the leading digital currency platforms and wallets have already chosen to issue Visa, including coin-based Crypto.com, BlackFi, Fold and BitPanda. These wallet relationships represent the potential for more than 50 million Visa credentials...."
"The next leading network has a fraction of that. And it goes without saying, to the extent a specific digital currency becomes a recognized means of exchange, there's no reason why we cannot add it to our network, which already supports over 160 currencies today."
So Silver and GDX, Nasdaq and Oil are currently more volatile
Gold is less volatile
2/N
Compared to December 2017, or indeed any time around that time, $BTC is now far less volatile in general (everything had a vol spike in March 2020), although still TOO volatile to rival gold, but give it time..
3/N