Dave Jones Profile picture
Sep 17, 2020 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
What does EU's impact assessment mean for the electricity sector? Well there's only 1 graph to really any insight, figure 46! #FitFor55...

STEP 1: Use a graph grabber to get the numbers! (the Commission will hate me for doing this!!!!)....

ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/cl…
ELECTRIFICATION?

By 2030: EU elec demand will only rise by 9-11%. Major electrification in transport+industry+heating is partly offset by major efficiency.

BUT by 2050 elec demand will more than double!

(this graph is derived from Commission graphs from figure 46!)
BIOENERGY?

Reassuringly, there's little growth, except for power.

Power grows a little to 2030, then LOADS from 2050.

In figure 46 above, “other renewables” electricity increases by 100TWh by 2030 which might be bioenergy? I wonder what type that is?
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY?

It means that renewable electricity needs to accelerate from 29% of the mix in 2015 to 61-69% in 2030…

So much to say on this one graph, i won't even try!
FOSSIL ELECTRICITY?

Fossil generation will more than halve, from about 1300TWh in 2019 to 480-629TWh in 2030… This means not only coal generation is falling, but gas generation will fall as well…

In 2050 (not in graph), it's negliable.
Does that mean a 2030 COAL PHASEOUT?

No, they expect some coal running in 2030.

They say “Coal consumption would need to be reduced by 70%” from 2015 to 2030. Since c.80% in 2015 was used in power plants, some coal generation will exist in 2030.

But we know it won’t be a lot.
CARBON PRICING?

It's reassuring #EUETS prices are not crazy high!

Key scenarios are in the range €32-€44 (in 2015 prices), slightly higher than baseline of €32.

Hopefully this might reassure Poland, Czechia, etc, that 55% ambition is more affordable than they assume!?
Oh dear, i feel like this analysis is only 0.0001% of the overall analysis released today...

Here's their full release...

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

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More from @CleanPowerDave

Jul 3
Q: Why have batteries become so cheap?
A: Because many no longer need expensive minerals.

The rise of the LFP battery means 40% of all EV batteries globally (higher in China), do not contain any nickel or cobalt… Image
..and less minerals means lower CO2 footprint. About 30% lower last year, than nickel batteries.... Image
The downside is LFP is 20-30% less energy-dense.

That makes it even more suitable for grid batteries. So where 40% of use LFP, 80%(!) of grid batteries already use LFP. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 21
Only 33% of EU's electricity was from fossil in 2023.

However, that hides that hour-by-hour, it ranged from 15% to 50%.

To get to 0% fossil, we need 0% in EVERY HOUR.

Here's a long thread on flexibility 🧵 Image
Let's start with seasonal flexibility, all the way through to millisecond flexibility..
The EU doesn't need a lot of seasonal flexibility. Wind delivers more in winter, complementing solar in summer. Even the swings by month are not huge.

Yes, this will get bigger as the EU electrifies heat, and winter demand grows - so it's a great job that EU is still building sooo much wind, even as solar so often steals the headlines.Image
Read 20 tweets
May 8
The latest on the global electricity transition🧵

Wind and solar produced 13% of global electricity in 2023; renewables, in total, produced 30%.. Image
The rise in wind and solar has ALREADY slowed fossil generation growth from about 3%/year to 1%/year..

And 2023 fossil generation would have been 22% higher without wind and solar.. Image
..and more than half the countries in the world are ALREADY now at least 5 years past their "peak" power emissions. Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 22
Today, the @IEA has started tracking progress of all 10 things that every country in the world committed to at @COP28_UAE.

You can't say there's no ambition!?... 🧵
#DecadeofImplementation Image
Image
(obviously the weird sarcastic remarks are me, not the IEA, duh! Please don't take them seriously!)
Read 13 tweets
Feb 7
2023 was the year that the EU electricity transition got real, as power sector CO2 emissions fell by almost a FIFTH 🇪🇺💪🧵 Image
The cause of the fall in coal+gas fall was roughly:
- 40% due to rising wind+solar generation
- 20% due to a rebound in hydro generation
- 40% due to fall in electricity demand Image
Wind and solar added a record 90TWh in 2023... Image
Read 26 tweets
Jan 24
What is interesting in the @IEA's flagship electricity report out today? LOTS 🧵

Peaking China. More certainty that China's coal generation has peaked in 2023 and will begin to fall in 2024 and beyond..Image
Peaking global power sector emissions. More certainty that GLOBALLY, 2023 was the peak power emissions...Image
YES, we've likely reached PEAK power sector emissions in 2023 (globally and in China)..

..BUT the falls in CO2 will be only slight - 1.2%/year average for 2024 to 2026.

We will not yet get the deep, rapid CO2 falls that we need.Image
Read 11 tweets

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