By 2030: EU elec demand will only rise by 9-11%. Major electrification in transport+industry+heating is partly offset by major efficiency.
BUT by 2050 elec demand will more than double!
(this graph is derived from Commission graphs from figure 46!)
BIOENERGY?
Reassuringly, there's little growth, except for power.
Power grows a little to 2030, then LOADS from 2050.
In figure 46 above, “other renewables” electricity increases by 100TWh by 2030 which might be bioenergy? I wonder what type that is?
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY?
It means that renewable electricity needs to accelerate from 29% of the mix in 2015 to 61-69% in 2030…
So much to say on this one graph, i won't even try!
FOSSIL ELECTRICITY?
Fossil generation will more than halve, from about 1300TWh in 2019 to 480-629TWh in 2030… This means not only coal generation is falling, but gas generation will fall as well…
In 2050 (not in graph), it's negliable.
Does that mean a 2030 COAL PHASEOUT?
No, they expect some coal running in 2030.
They say “Coal consumption would need to be reduced by 70%” from 2015 to 2030. Since c.80% in 2015 was used in power plants, some coal generation will exist in 2030.
2023 was the year that the EU electricity transition got real, as power sector CO2 emissions fell by almost a FIFTH 🇪🇺💪🧵
The cause of the fall in coal+gas fall was roughly:
- 40% due to rising wind+solar generation
- 20% due to a rebound in hydro generation
- 40% due to fall in electricity demand
Awesome new @IEA flagship report out on renewables.
Here's what I found most interesting...
1. The renewables forecast was upgraded by 33%💪
---- 90% from China, due to more certainty on their renewables strategy
---- 90% from solar, as boom continues to surprise
2. Why the big upwards China revision? (It was revised up 64%!) I found this very interesting...
3. The story of 2023 was the solar boom.
The boom in solar demand, the even bigger boom in solar supply, and the huge falls in solar price...
This weekend there were so many "deals", this one passed by:
Developed countries agreed to cut overall energy use by 18% by 2030👏💪
What?! Really!? What are they going to do to act on it? Do they even know what they've signed onto?! 🧵
On Saturday, every one of the 38 OECD countries (except Israel, New Zealand and Turkey) signed onto a pledge to triple global renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030...