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Sep 22, 2020 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/13
Been focused on other things for a few days but a few thoughts on shares I hold, given the perceived turmoil.

Main focuses for me for a while now, has been shares exposed to Covid, battery metals (incl. energy storage) and gold.

#HZM #BCN #ACP #GDR #AVCT #SRB #BMN
2/13
The events of the last few days if anything strengthen that stance.

In terms of Covid (and I tread carefully because both my stocks have other things in their locker), its a waiting game on both.

I think 1 strong update from #GDR and it moves much higher from here.
3/13
In terms of #AVCT, an update, one way or the other is pending, whereby the exact progress of BAMS/LFT tests, should be made clearer.

I see no reason for concern and the lockdown measures announced today in the UK, only go to strengthen that argument. Nothing has changed.
4/13
#AVCT need to deliver on their implied promises on quality and back it with the manufacturing capacity.

I stand by my 7m sales per month target and given sufficient time, I think such an achievement, will create a far more successful company with diagnostics as its enabler.
5/13
From a gold perspective, I believe #SRB has much going for it, simply because I believe progress is far ahead of what the market is prepared accept just yet.

Q3 is going to come out at +$,1900 prices and so a positive update on Covid safety measures and so a
6/13
signal that something close to normal production (c. +10,000 oz), can be achieved in Q4, when added to a solid (+8,500oz) Q3, should put us in good stead for a more sustained rise in the valuation.

The recent pullback in gold is for me, an opportunity rather than threat.
7/13
On the battery metal front, whatever happens over the shorter term, it is now abundantly clear that EV is going to expand at a rapid rate and that means lower 1st quartile cost mines, are going to be in demand.

There are of course other pressures such as local politics etc
8/13
So each opportunity should be taken on its own merits.

When it went under 6.5p, #HZM for me became the pick of the bunch with #ACP not too far behind, be it they have more to prove right now.

#BCN is quiet but is still in a very good place financially and progress wise.
9/13
So there will come a time when I will look to add because its a really good lower 1st quartile project, that should go on to create great returns from these levels.

#BMN is perhaps a slower burner because V prices are suffering and much of its valuation is based on
10/13
what it does in the steel sector space and there lies much uncertainty.

However, it has energy storage cards up its sleeve and so for me, it was a buy at 13p and is certainly so at closer to 11p because at some point prices recover and BMN as a big producer, will benefit.
11/13
I have others which I very much like such as #TILS, which I think is great value at 140p, considering how much news flow it has on offer, these next 6-9 months.

#YU for me is another one, be it again perhaps a slower burner but I am not buying to make a buck tomorrow,
12/13
I am buying for what I believe it will deliver over the next 2-3 years. I don't see them being as adversely affected by Covid lockdowns, as the market would have us believe, because I think UK Gov support + more M&A, will see them come out better than the £12m MC,
13/13
I see right now.

Again, all of my investments are approached with this 2-3 year projection in mind.

In time, I wish to delve into more detail on these and other ideas, through more detailed written analysis (not 25 post long tweets). Hopefully it will be of worth to some.

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More from @BigBiteNow

Oct 7
1/16
I've been doing some detailed research on #STX and found something important.

With scrips growth now back on track and net pricing expanding the 2 biggest risks I could find were working capital to breakeven and a covenant breach on the SWK financing.
2/
The $5.7m AOP Milestone Monetisation + the $10m Sallyport invoice factoring facility are stated by the broker as delivering them to +cash flows by H2 2025.

The same message is coming from the company although I could imagine a small amount of additional equity in 2025.
3/
The numbers say this would be small (c. $5m) and could well be in the form of a further expansion to the Sallport facility as expanding revenues allow it.

That then leaves the SWK finance covenants.

They are based on quarterly rolling group revenues up until Q2 2025. Image
Read 16 tweets
Apr 4
1/23
I've been studying the #THX Segilola remaining mine life and found some interesting details.

First of all, here is the independently calculated mine plan as it stood in 2021.

Note the mineable ore was calculated at just $1,600 gold.
Image
2/
A total of 501,800 ozs of payable gold was expected at 97% recovery from 518,000 oz of contained gold.

To date, recoveries, since operations began, have been averaging c. 94.4%.

At that rate, Segilola will deliver 489,000 oz over its current mine life. Image
3/
Up to the end of 2023, the mine has produced 192,503 oz and sold 179,138 oz.

This means 13,365 oz sit in inventory as of 1st Jan 2024 with a current value at $2,100/oz of c. $28m.

What this also means is that Segilola still has 296,497 oz of gold to produce.
Read 24 tweets
Jul 22, 2022
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/
Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.

Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/
Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.

It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
2/
Note the 43% jump in forecast 2022 sales but that all of this rise is due to significant increases in Q3 and Q4 sales projections.

In fact, Q1/Q2 should actually deliver slightly less than was forecast originally.
3/
This forecast was adjusted on 3rd May and the Q3/Q4 forecasts are based on "committed orders and projected orders." Just like with HMI.

Verde sees itself delivering c. 62% more product in Q3 than originally projected on 10th Jan 2022. So inside 4 months.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/9
In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.

$924k vs $1.824m
2/
Due to the way HMI's business cycle runs this is a theme that compounds as sales expand along with prices.

Meaning that if investors simply concentrate on cash on hand then they are misunderstanding how the business operates.
3/
This is can be proven by simply reviewing the Verde Agritech quarterly accounts once more.

For revenues Verde count the full price including freight which indicates that they are responsible for this. Unlike HMI which sells at the gate.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/
Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.

So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/
Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.

At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.

Read 18 tweets

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