2/13
The events of the last few days if anything strengthen that stance.
In terms of Covid (and I tread carefully because both my stocks have other things in their locker), its a waiting game on both.
I think 1 strong update from #GDR and it moves much higher from here.
3/13
In terms of #AVCT, an update, one way or the other is pending, whereby the exact progress of BAMS/LFT tests, should be made clearer.
I see no reason for concern and the lockdown measures announced today in the UK, only go to strengthen that argument. Nothing has changed.
4/13 #AVCT need to deliver on their implied promises on quality and back it with the manufacturing capacity.
I stand by my 7m sales per month target and given sufficient time, I think such an achievement, will create a far more successful company with diagnostics as its enabler.
5/13
From a gold perspective, I believe #SRB has much going for it, simply because I believe progress is far ahead of what the market is prepared accept just yet.
Q3 is going to come out at +$,1900 prices and so a positive update on Covid safety measures and so a
6/13
signal that something close to normal production (c. +10,000 oz), can be achieved in Q4, when added to a solid (+8,500oz) Q3, should put us in good stead for a more sustained rise in the valuation.
The recent pullback in gold is for me, an opportunity rather than threat.
7/13
On the battery metal front, whatever happens over the shorter term, it is now abundantly clear that EV is going to expand at a rapid rate and that means lower 1st quartile cost mines, are going to be in demand.
There are of course other pressures such as local politics etc
8/13
So each opportunity should be taken on its own merits.
When it went under 6.5p, #HZM for me became the pick of the bunch with #ACP not too far behind, be it they have more to prove right now.
#BCN is quiet but is still in a very good place financially and progress wise.
9/13
So there will come a time when I will look to add because its a really good lower 1st quartile project, that should go on to create great returns from these levels.
#BMN is perhaps a slower burner because V prices are suffering and much of its valuation is based on
10/13
what it does in the steel sector space and there lies much uncertainty.
However, it has energy storage cards up its sleeve and so for me, it was a buy at 13p and is certainly so at closer to 11p because at some point prices recover and BMN as a big producer, will benefit.
11/13
I have others which I very much like such as #TILS, which I think is great value at 140p, considering how much news flow it has on offer, these next 6-9 months.
#YU for me is another one, be it again perhaps a slower burner but I am not buying to make a buck tomorrow,
12/13
I am buying for what I believe it will deliver over the next 2-3 years. I don't see them being as adversely affected by Covid lockdowns, as the market would have us believe, because I think UK Gov support + more M&A, will see them come out better than the £12m MC,
13/13
I see right now.
Again, all of my investments are approached with this 2-3 year projection in mind.
In time, I wish to delve into more detail on these and other ideas, through more detailed written analysis (not 25 post long tweets). Hopefully it will be of worth to some.
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1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/ Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.
Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/ Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.
It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
1/9 In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/ Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.
So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/ Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.
At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.
1/7 Based on what I have just talked about if #HMI had received all the monies from its sales in 2021 then this would have amounted to $4.52m and the business would have been profitable at the operating level in 2021.
2/ What's more, the $4.454m paid out in 2021 reflects more accurately the true costs to run the business over the course of one year.
One cannot conclude exactly how much HMI produced in 2021 because the cash receipts reflect payment dates and not when the goods were received.
3/ Inventory was fairly minimal which reflects an operation that leans towards producing to order.
However, the costs associated with administration clearly eat up the vast majority of this with the consolidated statement accounting for c. $3.85m in the period.