Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Sep 22, 2020 58 tweets 31 min read Read on X
ALABAMA: Via analyses by @urbaninstitute and Center for @amprog (latter of which I co-wrote w/@EmilyG_DC & @NicoleRapfogel), if the #ACA is struck down, 186,000 AL residents would lose coverage & the state would lose at least $1.15 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
⚠️ NOTE: The *coverage* losses have been updated for the #COVID19 era; the loss in *federal funding* is from last year. Assuming the increase in lost funding is proportional to the increase in coverage losses, you'd have to tack on another 30% for Alabama. This % varies by state.
ALASKA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 75,000 Alaskans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state would lose at least $540 million in federal funding per year. Image
ARIZONA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 363,000 Arizonans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state would lose at least $2.12 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
ARKANSAS: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 329,000 Arkansans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state would lose at least $440 million in federal funding per year. Image
Before I get too far into this, here's the links/sources:

First, the March 2019 @urbaninstitute analysis (state level): urban.org/research/publi…
Next, the July 2019 @amprog Congressional District-level breakout:
americanprogress.org/issues/healthc…
Finally, the June 2020 #COVID19-era updated analysis by @amprog:
americanprogress.org/issues/healthc…
OK, back to it:

CALIFORNIA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 4.2 MILLION Californians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state would lose at least $22.4 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
COLORADO: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 470,000 Coloradans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state would lose at least $2.8 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
CONNECTICUT: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 262,000 Nutmeggers are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state would lose at least $1.85 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
DELAWARE: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 38,000 Delawareans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state would lose at least $302 million in federal funding per year. Image
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 42,000 District residents are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state would lose at least $281 million in federal funding per year. Image
FLORIDA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 1.75 MILLION Floridians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state would lose at least $9.34 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
Sorry, Buddy break... Image
GEORGIA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 552,000 Georgians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the states is projected to lose at least $2.3 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
HAWAII: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 31,000 Hawaiians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the states is projected to lose at least $306 million in federal funding per year. Image
IDAHO: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 99,000 Idahoans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $595 million in federal funding per year. Image
ILLINOIS: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 736,000 Illinoisans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $3 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
INDIANA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 564,000 Indianans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $3 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
IOWA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 227,000 Iowans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $1.4 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
KANSAS: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 94,000 Kansans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $545 million in federal funding per year. Image
KENTUCKY: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 427,000 Kentuckians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $4.1 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
LOUISIANA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 538,000 Louisianans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $3.6 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
MAINE: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 98,000 Mainers are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $496 million in federal funding per year. Image
MARYLAND: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 414,000 Marylanders are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $2.9 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
MASSACHUSETTS: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 192,000 Baystaters are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $1.7 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
MICHIGAN: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 827,000 Michiganders are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $5.2 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
MINNESOTA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 337,000 Minnesotans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $1.8 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
MISSISSIPPI: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 123,000 Missippians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $717 million in federal funding per year. Image
MISSOURI: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 230,000 Missourians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $1.16 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
MONTANA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 125,000 Montanans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $1.1 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
NEBRASKA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 75,000 Nebraskans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $774 million in federal funding per year. Image
NEVADA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 311,000 Nevadans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $1.17 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
NEW HAMPSHIRE: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 105,000 New Hampshirites (?) are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $365 million in federal funding per year. Image
NEW JERSEY: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 686,000 New Jerseyans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $2.7 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
NEW MEXICO: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 245,000 New Mexicans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $2.2 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
NEW YORK: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 828,000 New Yorkers are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $10.2 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
NORTH CAROLINA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 607,000 North Carolinians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $4.6 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
NORTH DAKOTA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 35,000 North Dakotans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $179 million in federal funding per year. Image
OHIO: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 863,000 Ohioans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $4.4 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
OKLAHOMA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 180,000 Oklahomans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $1.2 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
OREGON: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 418,000 Oregonians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $2.6 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
PENNSYLVANIA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 996,000 Pennsylvanians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $5.1 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
RHODE ISLAND: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 79,000 Rhode Islanders are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $509 million in federal funding per year. Image
SOUTH CAROLINA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 288,000 South Carolinians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $1.7 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
SOUTH DAKOTA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 22,000 South Dakotans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $200 million in federal funding per year. Image
TENNESSEE: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 232,000 Tennesseans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $1.6 BILLIOn in federal funding per year. Image
TEXAS: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 1.96 MILLION Texans are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $6.5 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
UTAH: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 143,000 Utahns are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $991 million in federal funding per year. Image
VERMONT: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 21,000 Vermonters are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $170 million in federal funding per year. Image
VIRGINIA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 741,000 Virginia are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $4.7 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
WASHINGTON STATE: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 654,000 Washingtonians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $4.2 BILLION in federal funding per year. Image
WEST VIRGINIA: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 178,000 West Virginians are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $1.0 BILLION in federal funding per year Image
WISCONSIN: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 224,000 Wisconsinites are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $1.0 BILLION in federal funding per year Image
WYOMING: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 18,000 Wyomingites are projected to lose healthcare coverage and the state is projected to lose at least $243 million in federal funding per year. Image
📣 TOTAL, NATIONALLY: If the #ACA is struck down, at least 23 MILLION Americans are projected to lose healthcare coverage (~16 million Medicaid, ~7 million subsidized ACA private exchange plan enrollees), and the states would collectively lose at least $135 BILLION per year.
If you find my work useful *and* have the means, consider becoming a one-time or recurring supporter, thanks! /END
acasignups.net/donate

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More from @charles_gaba

Nov 10
Here's an updated version of my "Dem Stop the Steal!" conspiracy theory thread which hopefully is less scattershot.

There's 3 main claims:

1. "How could there be 20M fewer voters than in 2020 w/"record-breaking turnout?"

2. "How could 15M fewer voter for Harris vs. Biden?"
3. "How could so many swing state voters vote for the Dem for Senate but not for Harris for POTUS?"

There's a few others, but these are the biggest ones, so let's tackle them first:
1. There weren't 20M fewer voters.

I've been compiling the data as it's being updated by CNN's tracking center via a Google spreadsheet. As of this writing, total POTUS turnout is ~147.6M, or ~10.8M lower than 2020's 158.4M.

cnn.com/election/2024/…

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 46 tweets
Nov 8
Yesterday I posted a thread digging into the actual data behind the "20M missing votes!" and "15M fewer than Biden!" conspiracy theories being tossed around the past few days.

I've updated my spreadsheet using the latest data from CNN:
cnn.com/election/2024/…Image
Short Version:

Via CNN, as of this writing, total 2024 POTUS votes are only down 13.9 million vs. 2020...with a likely 11.5 - 12.0 million ballots still to be counted across 30 states.

Total 2024 turnout will likely be ~156M or so...just a couple million fewer than 2020.
Again, using CNN's data & estimates, once every legitimate ballot has been counted, Trump will likely have around ~78 million votes to Harris' 75-76 million.

That'd mean he added ~4 million vs 2020 while she lost ~5-6 million.

Both of these would still suck, of course.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 3
As the guy who obsessed over precisely this data for nearly 3 years, let me address this:

My best estimate is that around 150,000 more Trump 2020 voters than Biden 2020 voters died between Nov. 2020 & Nov. 2022.

That's a lot of people. HOWEVER... 1/

acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
...the vast majority of this discrepancy happened in districts/counties which were heavily red to begin with, which is why the MAGA COVID Death Cult factor only ended up making a decisive difference in exactly one statewide race: Arizona Attorney General:
acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…
At the House district level it didn't make a decisive difference in any races at all. To understand why, let's look at two extreme examples...

acasignups.net/22/12/13/updat…
Read 10 tweets
Oct 31
People have started asking why I'm still pushing fundraising for Dems just 5 days before Election Day. All the ad time has been purchased & the lit pieces printed & mailed out already, right?

There's several reasons: 1/
1. For state legislative races in particular, a last-minute cash infusion of even $50 can mean an extra few pizzas for tired & hungry canvassers or an extra burner phone for phone banking.

Blue24.org/state-leg
2. After the polls close, there's going to no doubt be some races which require recounts...which may or may not have to be paid for by the campaign requesting it, depending on the state and the margin. That's gonna cost money.

Blue24.org/endgame
Read 4 tweets
Oct 31
🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 40 tweets
Oct 6
(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ Image
A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…
As it happens, the aerial shot shows several presumably standard trailer vans lined up neatly in a row just outside the perimeter in the lower right.

By copying & pasting one of them, it looks like the venue runs around 7 trailer vans x 4 trailer vans. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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