Thread by @XinqiSu

One month ago on 23 August, #12HKers were arrested on a speedboat reportedly intercepted by Guangdong coastguard some 70km to the southeast of HK.

In this #thread, let's review what has not happened and what has:

1) Families and lawyers hired by them have not been allowed...

...to meet any of the 12 in person, who, according to mainland authorities, have been detained in Yantian Detention Centre since at last 25 August.

2) Today, 4 lawyers hired by families of 4 detainees went to the detention centre and demanded meeting but...

...in vain. 3 of the 4 lawyers were told their clients had each got "two other lawyers". Previously in an exclusive interview with TVB, HK's security minister John Lee said each of the 12 had got 2 lawyers from a list provided by the mainland authorities. Till today, HK gov...

...has not given the 12 families the lawyers list that Lee promised to obtain in the interiview.

3. At least 6 lawyers hired by the families were forced to drop their clients under warnings from justice bureaux officials and even national security agents. At least one lawyer...

...who insisted to visit his client, has been followed and watched nearly around the clock by state agents. Lawyers were threatened with termination of their licenses and warned not to talk to journalists.

4. John Lee has also made it clear in his interview that...

...HK gov has not right to visit the 12 so no officer from the city can see the detainees in person. So far the immigration officers have been doing is mainly relaying requests from families to the mainland authorities with no guarantee of any response or realisation...

...the mainland officer whose mobile number is left on the official notification of detention to the families has become impatient and unresponsive, I was told by members of a family who have been calling since the day they got the paper.

5. The next 7 days will be vital...

...according to one of the lawyers on the case Lu Siwei. Under mainland's rules, the police are bound to seek approval of their arrest with 30 days since onset of criminal detention and the prosecutors have 7 days to give a reply. Around 1 Oct, China's national day, the...

approval, if there is on, is set to be given and announced. Once the approval is given, the case will go deeper into mainland's justice system and conviction is highly possible if not guaranteed.

6. So far no consular visit has been known to make despite foreign passports...

...holders among the 12. Expression of concern by Pompeo has triggered China's MOFA spokeswoman Hua Chunying to label the 12 "separatists" - a felony that can lead to extreme penalty if convicted under mainland's national security law.

7. HK gov has been insisting that they...

...won't request the 12 to be sent back to HK until the 12 finished their legal procedures in mainland. That was not always the case. HK used to request send-back of robbers who fled across the border after swiping a jewelry shop. And if some or all of the 12 are unfortunately...

...sentenced to extreme penalties, will HK gov ever get them back?

8. The allegation of "illegal border crossing" can be an embarrassing dilemma. So far, neither authorities in mainland nor HK acknowledged the 12 were heading to Taiwan when they were caught...

...it was reported by RFA and pro-Beijing Wen Wei Po. As lawyer Lu Siwei succinctly pointed out in an earlier legal opinion, the offence of crossing the border between HK and mainland per se can form a "weird circle" as HK has been part of China since 1 July 1997. And if...

...the crossing without due procedures must be punished, it should follow an administrative regulation on the permits for HK/Macau residents to enter mainland, instead of a criminal offence. To take it further, how to justify the crossing of border between mainland and Taiwan...

...a criminal act under Beijing's version of "One China Principle"? In that sense, this can be yet another case revealing the intriguing nature of Beijing, Hong Kong, Taiwan relations.

9. More than a dozen of human rights lawyers in mainland China have been bearing...

...mounting pressure and paying extra efforts even though they always knew it rather clearly that their trips to Yantian would be fruitless. The difficulties to find lawyers for the 12 reflect the cruel aftermath of rounds of crackdown on human rights lawyers since...

...what happened to the #709Lawyers . The many thank-you and support expressed by HK people concerning the case, including a localist activist leading the campaign for the 12, remark a re-connection of HK society with the highly suppressed civil/activist circle...

...across the border, which in previous years, was largely abandoned under deteriorating HK-mainland relation.

10. Worse than being prosecuted and tried, in the following months, the 12 may be placed under "residential surveillance at a designated location", which can last...

...for an unlimited period of time. With little if not zero information exchange during that period, attention in HK and international community can be easily exhausted, which can expose the 12 to more unscrupulous treatments.

#thread ends.