Thread by @AgataGostynska

1. It has been a while since I did a #thread on #Brexit but as baby Janina is napping I thought I would offer my two cents. The IMB has naturally undermined the trust that the deal can be reached and has a potential of derailing the talks.

2. Whereas the EU is naturally frustrated with UK's move some folks I have talked to think that the deal is still possible... under condition that the IMB is revised respectively.

3. Some of the involved in the talks think that Johnson is believed to prefer a deal from a no-deal scenario but they acknowledge that there are mounting challenges ahead of the negotiators.

4. Could it be - some wonder- that the fuss around the IMB is a smokescreen that distracts the public’s attention and makes it easier for Brits to find a landing zone with the EU?;

5. There is an agreement in Brussels that State aid is key to securing a deal. And, although few will admit it everyone understands that a dynamic alignment is a no go.

6. The problem is that UK’s decision to push for the IMB as well as lack of concrete details on how UK's state aid policy will look like in the future has reduced the appetite for blue-sky thinking concern. potential landing zones in contentious policy fields including state aid.

7. It is no surprise: why should the EU offer greater flexibility if the UK cannot be trusted to keep its commitments?

8. Although the single coherent structure of the FTA might be acceptable to the British a dispute resolution mechanism is becoming one of the biggest bones of contention in light of the IMB.

9. Since UK doesn't want any reference to the EU law in the agreement I don't think that the ECJ jurisdiction (or to be precise the lack of it) is a problem any longer. After all, if the deal is reached it will be a very thin one.

10. But the EU wants a binding resolution mechanism in the future agreement to be able to react to any potential breaches whereas the UK doesn't want to commit to anything.

11. The time is running out though; the parties will have to make progress during the next round of the talks starting on Sept 28th if they don't want to end up with no deal. I expect therefore we will be able to say if there is a light in the tunnel at the end of that round.

12. FULL text of the deal needs to be ready (the latest) by the end of Octob. MEPs need to approve it which won't happen over night. The EP will draft consent report (expect committees to make fuss) which will have to be approved by the plenary. The last session finishes on 17.12

13. And, yet if at the end of Sept the British gov. will still be determined to go ahead with the IMB in the current shape the EU will have to decide what legal measures it should take. Make no doubt it will be a political choice.

14. It can consider launching an infringement procedure or refer to the dispute settlement mechanism in the WA. The latter is problematic as the EU has not completed a procedure of selecting its panels of experts to the arbitration panel established by the WA.

15. To sum up the end of September and the first two weeks of October will be crucial for these negotiations. I will still be on maternity leave then but will follow those and try to decode some of the things for you. But for now, my baby's nap is over and so I have to run.