#AVCT interims tomorrow.
Comprehensive updates on all work streams of the Therapeutics and Diagnostics divisions will be provided.
Naturally, the content will likely be dominated by the various #COVID19 products under development - and of those, many market participants... 1/n
Comprehensive updates on all work streams of the Therapeutics and Diagnostics divisions will be provided.
Naturally, the content will likely be dominated by the various #COVID19 products under development - and of those, many market participants... 1/n
...(esp. new holders) will only have eyes for the LFT.
I think it’s important to appreciate the number of short term traders - and nervous retail investors - there are in #AVCT at present.
In my view, the near-term SP movement (which I think will be strong, either way)... 2/n
I think it’s important to appreciate the number of short term traders - and nervous retail investors - there are in #AVCT at present.
In my view, the near-term SP movement (which I think will be strong, either way)... 2/n
...will be driven by one very simple - but critical - matter: whether #AVCT has been permitted to disclose in its interims the UK Gov’s involvement in the rollout of the LFT.
I think the majority will agree that that involvement is beyond question.
Project #Moonshot... 3/n
I think the majority will agree that that involvement is beyond question.
Project #Moonshot... 3/n
...is calling for 200+ million antigen tests per month (up to 10m tests a day in total) by early 2021. Needless to say, LFTs will constitute the bulk of these tests.
#AVCT’s Affimers will ensure its LFT is first-in-class, of that I have no doubt. AVCT will take the lion’s...4/n
#AVCT’s Affimers will ensure its LFT is first-in-class, of that I have no doubt. AVCT will take the lion’s...4/n
...share of that market.
But it may be that Gov keeps #AVCT quiet until clinical validation has been completed.
It also may be that clinical validation of the LFT hasn’t even commenced yet.
In which case, we’ll also see short termers *****ing their pants and selling. 5/n
But it may be that Gov keeps #AVCT quiet until clinical validation has been completed.
It also may be that clinical validation of the LFT hasn’t even commenced yet.
In which case, we’ll also see short termers *****ing their pants and selling. 5/n
I personally am guessing that the UK Gov has asked #AVCT to produce 100m+ per month (less than half of what is needed for #Moonshot).
Assume £1 profit per test but, as per my research notes, I think it’ll be £2-£3.
How do you value a Co like #AVCT, which could be generating...
Assume £1 profit per test but, as per my research notes, I think it’ll be £2-£3.
How do you value a Co like #AVCT, which could be generating...
...pre-tax profit of up to £200m per month? (100m tests x £2 profit).
Needless to say, it’d take several months at least to reach 100m units of manufacturing capacity in the UK.
But the point to note is - what’s the demand, RoW, if UK demand alone is (eventually) 100m pm? 7/n
Needless to say, it’d take several months at least to reach 100m units of manufacturing capacity in the UK.
But the point to note is - what’s the demand, RoW, if UK demand alone is (eventually) 100m pm? 7/n
Regardless of (lack of) disclosure of UK Gov tomorrow and #AVCT’s LFT, I think that global will be in the billions of units.
I personally feel that an AIM listing can’t handle this - and that we’ll see #AVCT upgrade its listing (NASDAQ) or else get acquired... 8/n
I personally feel that an AIM listing can’t handle this - and that we’ll see #AVCT upgrade its listing (NASDAQ) or else get acquired... 8/n
...within 12 months max. For me, I actually think the Diagnostics div will get taken out, leaving the Therapeutics div as a stand-alone biz, with an absurd cash pile.
Looking forward to the next few months incredibly. 9/n #AVCT
Looking forward to the next few months incredibly. 9/n #AVCT
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