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@PollWatch2020

16 Oct

1) More from the Fox Business article about JPMorgan election analysis concerning Republican voter registration gains:

"Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well."

2) "JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail."

3) "The firm noted Trump outperformed the polls in all of the key battleground states in 2016 and also suggested his recent Supreme Court nomination, gun ownership trends and a stronger backing from African-American voters are all playing into Trump’s hands."

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@PollWatch2020

7 Oct

1) Nuggets from Joseph Cotto’s interview of Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute. A DI poll showed Trump winning nationally and in the Electoral College:

Basham addressed why Trump’s national lead went from +3 to +1 and why Trump’s Battleground State lead went from +7 to +4.

2) It was because Democracy Institute shifted from a 2-way to a 4-way race. He believes some are “parking their votes” with 3rd-party candidates. He senses some of these will move back to Trump or Biden, with more going to Trump. He also thinks more undecideds will go for Trump.

3) Believes in the “SHY TRUMP VOTER”:
“The shy Trump voter is not only real it is larger than last time.”

Is not just a rural voter under a haystack:
“The shy Trump voter is much more likely to be in fact . . . an African American in an urban setting. A Suburban white woman.”

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@PollWatch2020

6 Oct

1) Some quick-hitting nuggets from “Inside the Numbers” today (my paraphrased words). Be sure to watch for full context:

Baris to be polling Pennsylvania very soon. When Big Data Poll polled the Rust Belt for The Epoch Times a couple weeks ago Trump had a tiny lead in PA.

2) Trump was within 2% in Michigan. Wisconsin was Biden’s strongest RB state then.

Will pay close attention to Bucks County. Hillary won by 2% in 2016. But two weeks ago Trump was up 2% (49 to 47).

3) Trump is leading overall if the electorate is fairly normal. But pollsters are counting on huge new voter turnout with majority breaking for Dems (very skeptical of this)

Baris polled FL a week ago. Trump has a small but solid lead in Florida (+1.5).

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PollWatch

@PollWatch2020

5 Sep

1) The straightest path for a Trump Electoral College win comes down to 7 states:

Winning the Core 3 of FL, NC, and AZ.
Winning 1 of MN, WI, MI, or PA.

If the election were today I think this "Core 3 +1" scenario would happen.

(If lost AZ, then two of MN, WI, MI, or PA works)

2) This is not to say that Trump could not win 2, 3, or 4 of MN, WI, MI, PA, or even New Hampshire. I'm just discussing the cleanest, easiest path to 270. (I realize a loss in AZ with wins in MN and WI means 269).

3) I like studying national polls too, but these seven states of FL, NC, AZ, MN, WI, MI, and PA are what I am most interested in. It would be fantastic if there was a battleground poll of these 7 states done by a quality pollster (not a Big Media pollster).

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