New #COVID19 cases in Minnesota are trending flat — but this flatness comes on increasing test volume, so is actually sort of a good thing. Positivity rate is declining, as are new hospitalizations.
For months, northern Minnesota was largely spared from #COVID19 while the metro suffered.

Today, northern Minnesota is reporting a higher rate of new cases than Hennepin and Ramsey counties ever have. (Expanded testing means this means relatively little. Still striking.)
Northern Minnesota is also currently seeing the state’s highest #COVID19 death rate, though not nearly at the same magnitude as the metro during the nursing home outbreak in May.
No real change in the age structure of Minnesota’s confirmed #COVID19 cases — 20-somethings continue to have the most cases per capita, while under-20s have the least, and everyone else is in between.
No significant backlogged data in today’s report:
On the bad side, the continued high #COVID19 death rates in Minnesota means Minnesota’s 7-day average death rate has passed 10 deaths per day for the first time since June 24. (Remember deaths are a lagging indicator, showing how bad the outbreak was a week or two ago.)
#COVID19 deaths are up in both long-term care settings, and outside of long-term care:

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with David Montgomery

David Montgomery Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @dhmontgomery

2 Oct
New #COVID19 cases are up today — but so is testing, even more, over 30,000. The positivity rate fell, too. The strongest conclusion is that most of this test “growth” is driven by expanded testing. ImageImageImage
New hospitalizations are also down a little bit after soaring recently. You can’t always tell if declines on the left graph (by date of hospitalization) are real or data artifacts, but in the right (bar) graph you can see the drop shows up by report date, too. ImageImage
Deaths are also trending up. Twice times now since summer, the 7-day average has approached 10 deaths per day, only to promptly decline. We’ll see if that happens again, or keeps rising into double digits. Image
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
New #COVID19 cases are up a little bit, but controlling for testing volume, positivity rate in MN is actually trending down. Yes, case counts are way up — but so is testing, which explains a LOT of it. ImageImageImage
The testing increase in MN is real and notable. In late April, MN began a sustained rise in testing from an average of about 1,500 per day to nearly 15,000/day by July 4. But then growth slowed a ton, and stayed slow for months.

The last few weeks have finally seen more growth: Image
New hospitalization rates remain their highest in months, a sign that MN is seeing a real growth of its outbreak, even if not as dramatic as case #s & positivity seem (ignore the little drops at the end of the line — those are data artifacts from reporting delays): Image
Read 6 tweets
30 Sep
A big spike in newly reported #COVID19 deaths today, though we’ll see if this persists or is a one-time unfortunate blip: Image
As for newly reported cases, they’re down day-over-day but at the same level as last Wednesday. The decline in cases was matched by a decline in tests (unusual for a Wednesday). Positivity rate did decline slightly: ImageImageImage
No real change to the trend of rising hospitalizations (the slight declines in both lines are probably a result of incomplete reporting): Image
Read 5 tweets
29 Sep
Newly reported #COVID19 tests fell today — but tests fell by even more. The positivity rate went up day-over-day, and hospitalization rates are rising at the highest since late May. ImageImageImage
If you look at cases by sample date rather than date reported, people who got tested last Monday and Tuesday resulted in a huge share of new cases: Image
Newly reported cases are rising in every age group except 0-19-year-olds: Image
Read 4 tweets
28 Sep
Just saw an interesting discussion prompted by this article, which lists The History of Rome by @mikeduncan as one of “The Top Ten Ancient History Podcasts You Might Not Have Heard”: ancient-origins.net/history/histor…
@mikeduncan A bunch of history podcasters in our chat rolled their eyes, because THoR is a giant of the genre, with Duncan & Dan Carlin as the two most famous and popular history podcasters. So the idea of THoR as a hidden gem, when there are many MORE hidden gems out there, is funny. BUT…
@mikeduncan As a history podcast junkie (and history podcaster myself @TheSiecle), we can be blinkered at times. I think most ordinary podcast listeners probably HAVEN’T heard of @mikeduncan. For non-specialists, “history podcast” means, like, “Stuff You Missed in History Class.”
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep
MN reported almost exactly the same number of new #COVID19 cases today as last Monday, but on 30% more tests. The positivity rate ticked down slightly, still hovering around 5%. ImageImage
New non-ICU hospital admissions are down slightly from a recent peak, while ICU admissions have not yet begun to decline from their peak: Image
Today is not only a record high number of tests reported on a Monday (when testing usually drops), but for the first time ever, Minnesota is AVERAGING more than 20,000 tests per day. (It’s reported single days above this mark before, but never sustained like this.) Image
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!