New #COVID19 cases in Minnesota are trending flat — but this flatness comes on increasing test volume, so is actually sort of a good thing. Positivity rate is declining, as are new hospitalizations.
For months, northern Minnesota was largely spared from #COVID19 while the metro suffered.
Today, northern Minnesota is reporting a higher rate of new cases than Hennepin and Ramsey counties ever have. (Expanded testing means this means relatively little. Still striking.)
Northern Minnesota is also currently seeing the state’s highest #COVID19 death rate, though not nearly at the same magnitude as the metro during the nursing home outbreak in May.
No real change in the age structure of Minnesota’s confirmed #COVID19 cases — 20-somethings continue to have the most cases per capita, while under-20s have the least, and everyone else is in between.
No significant backlogged data in today’s report:
On the bad side, the continued high #COVID19 death rates in Minnesota means Minnesota’s 7-day average death rate has passed 10 deaths per day for the first time since June 24. (Remember deaths are a lagging indicator, showing how bad the outbreak was a week or two ago.)
#COVID19 deaths are up in both long-term care settings, and outside of long-term care:
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
New #COVID19 cases are up today — but so is testing, even more, over 30,000. The positivity rate fell, too. The strongest conclusion is that most of this test “growth” is driven by expanded testing.
New hospitalizations are also down a little bit after soaring recently. You can’t always tell if declines on the left graph (by date of hospitalization) are real or data artifacts, but in the right (bar) graph you can see the drop shows up by report date, too.
Deaths are also trending up. Twice times now since summer, the 7-day average has approached 10 deaths per day, only to promptly decline. We’ll see if that happens again, or keeps rising into double digits.
New #COVID19 cases are up a little bit, but controlling for testing volume, positivity rate in MN is actually trending down. Yes, case counts are way up — but so is testing, which explains a LOT of it.
The testing increase in MN is real and notable. In late April, MN began a sustained rise in testing from an average of about 1,500 per day to nearly 15,000/day by July 4. But then growth slowed a ton, and stayed slow for months.
The last few weeks have finally seen more growth:
New hospitalization rates remain their highest in months, a sign that MN is seeing a real growth of its outbreak, even if not as dramatic as case #s & positivity seem (ignore the little drops at the end of the line — those are data artifacts from reporting delays):
A big spike in newly reported #COVID19 deaths today, though we’ll see if this persists or is a one-time unfortunate blip:
As for newly reported cases, they’re down day-over-day but at the same level as last Wednesday. The decline in cases was matched by a decline in tests (unusual for a Wednesday). Positivity rate did decline slightly:
No real change to the trend of rising hospitalizations (the slight declines in both lines are probably a result of incomplete reporting):
Newly reported #COVID19 tests fell today — but tests fell by even more. The positivity rate went up day-over-day, and hospitalization rates are rising at the highest since late May.
If you look at cases by sample date rather than date reported, people who got tested last Monday and Tuesday resulted in a huge share of new cases:
Newly reported cases are rising in every age group except 0-19-year-olds:
Just saw an interesting discussion prompted by this article, which lists The History of Rome by @mikeduncan as one of “The Top Ten Ancient History Podcasts You Might Not Have Heard”: ancient-origins.net/history/histor…
@mikeduncan A bunch of history podcasters in our chat rolled their eyes, because THoR is a giant of the genre, with Duncan & Dan Carlin as the two most famous and popular history podcasters. So the idea of THoR as a hidden gem, when there are many MORE hidden gems out there, is funny. BUT…
@mikeduncan As a history podcast junkie (and history podcaster myself @TheSiecle), we can be blinkered at times. I think most ordinary podcast listeners probably HAVEN’T heard of @mikeduncan. For non-specialists, “history podcast” means, like, “Stuff You Missed in History Class.”
MN reported almost exactly the same number of new #COVID19 cases today as last Monday, but on 30% more tests. The positivity rate ticked down slightly, still hovering around 5%.
New non-ICU hospital admissions are down slightly from a recent peak, while ICU admissions have not yet begun to decline from their peak:
Today is not only a record high number of tests reported on a Monday (when testing usually drops), but for the first time ever, Minnesota is AVERAGING more than 20,000 tests per day. (It’s reported single days above this mark before, but never sustained like this.)