EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier heads to Berlin tomorrow morning for a meeting with Angela Merkel. No trip scheduled to France the following day. Possibly to London later in the week, I’m told /1
It would seem neither the wildly positive sounding rumours out of the U.K. last week on agreed solutions being found to state aid, nor the doom and gloomsters saying nothing is going nowhere fast(!) on tough issues in talks following the PM-VdL phone call this week are correct /2
The fact the two leaders didn’t issue a joint statement trumpeting the details of compromise solutions already being worked on doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t happen. Fact that PM and VdL will be in regular contact now is significant. Lots more to-ing and fro-ing predicted /3
Well-connected EU diplomat told me he thinks Michel Barnier will have to push EU leaders to show more flexibility. Angela Merkel seemed to nod to that on Friday. The U.K. will need to move considerably on its current official positions on level playing field and governance /4
Fish is not THE key issue but it is a key bargaining chip and do will be agreed close to last. Neither EU nor UK will want to be seen to be the first to give up on these negotiations. EU diplomats think they could continue into November /5
As we heard from leaders like NL’s Rutte and Germany’s Merkel, they are ‘cautiously optimistic’ BUT while a deal is thought likely, it’s far from definite. EU view is still that decision must ultimately be made in Downing Street. Though the PM insists it depends more on the EU /6
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