Ben Chu Profile picture
4 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Rather ironic - if all those positive coronavirus tests missed since 24 Sep and *reported* today had actually *occured* today we'd be tracking ABOVE that much criticised 7-day doubling time projection that Patrick Vallance showed in his 21 Sep presser slide:
Obviously that's not what's happening.

Here's the current picture looking at cases by specimin date, not reported date - and comparing it to a 7 day doubling trend from 15 September:
Though, as many people are pointing out, the reliability of *any* of the data on cases from the government seems questionable now given testing/data processing problems - probably best to pay more attention to survey data from @ONS and @imperialcollege
This from @UKCovid19Stats essentially shows my two charts above together so you get a sense of the how different is the picture from using *reported* date & using *specimen* date.

Use specimen if anything, but be wary even of that given these major new data processing problems - which come on top of the well-known test processing issues

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More from @BenChu_

6 Oct
There's a bit of puzzle about this government's capital spending announcements.

They're committed to spending quite a lot more - getting it to 3% of GDP in the next couple of years... 1/ Image
...And yet ministers keep re-announcing old capital spending, trying to pass of re-allocated underspends as new spending (see @ifs here)...2/

ifs.org.uk/publications/1…
...or announcing spending that manifestly doesn't come close to meeting what they say they're doing. See today's £160m for offshore wind or the recent £3.7bn for 40 new hospitals (estimated cost £500m each)...3/

independent.co.uk/environment/bo…
Read 7 tweets
17 Jul 19
NEW: Sources at Channel ferry companies have confirmed to @BBCNewsnight that they will NOT allow any UK truck bound for the Continent to board after a no-deal Brexit without FULL new required documentation...
...put this together with previous @BBCNewsnight revelations that two thirds of relevant UK exporters have not even got to STAGE ONE of no-deal preparation (applying for an EORI number)...bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
..and you have recipe for those feared long queues and traffic gridlock leading to UK ports...bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
Read 7 tweets
28 Mar 19
Remember those 40 European Union free trade deals that the Trade Secretary Liam Fox said would be rolled over by this week ensuring continuity of trade for UK exporters even if we experienced a no-deal Brexit?...
....as we know only eight of those 40 have actually been concluded (though a ninth was announced last week)...
....which is obviously bad news.

But @BBCNewsnight has further bad news about the eight deals that the Trade Department has actually got over the time...
Read 5 tweets
17 Jan 19
Thread on Philip Hammond and the end of the no deal risk

1/ The Chancellor sought to reassure business leaders immediately after the colossal Parliamentary defeat of the Withdrawal Agreement on Tuesday night that the UK would not crash out of the EU with no deal on 29 March....
2/ So how did he do this when, as the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and other hardline Brexiteers tell us, the law says we must leave on that date even if there is no deal?...
3/ Hammond pointed to the amendment being put forward by the Tory backbencher Nick Boles along with others and described it thus...
Read 8 tweets
24 May 18
The argument from @scmallaby here that Italy's growing debt-to-GDP ratio since 1999 is mainly due to profligate state spending and an absence of market discipline is flawed... washingtonpost.com/opinions/italy…
...first, here's the debt-to-GDP picture. Yes, as he says, up significantly in France and Italy. & big contrast with Germany, where its been falling since 2012....:
...but is Italy's debt ratio due to vast budget deficits in Italy, as he implies? Actually, Italy has had lower annual deficits than the rest of the G7 since 2000 (as has France)...:
Read 13 tweets

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