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Ben Chu
@BenChu_
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Thread on Philip Hammond and the end of the no deal risk

1/ The Chancellor sought to reassure business leaders immediately after the colossal Parliamentary defeat of the Withdrawal Agreement on Tuesday night that the UK would not crash out of the EU with no deal on 29 March....
2/ So how did he do this when, as the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and other hardline Brexiteers tell us, the law says we must leave on that date even if there is no deal?...
3/ Hammond pointed to the amendment being put forward by the Tory backbencher Nick Boles along with others and described it thus...
4/ But couldn't the government somehow block this? Not according to Hammond...
5/ Really?, asked John Allan, the president of the CBI. Yes, really, said Hammond..
6/ But what about the claim (on the same conference call) from the Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay that taking no-deal off the table would 'weaken the UK's negotiating hand' with the EU?

How can this be reconciled with Hammond's reassurances, asked Allan?

Hammond's answer:
7/ Upshot: If Hammond is correct the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 29 March is ALREADY effectively off the table because Parliament now has the means and the will to block it. And will likely do so later this month.

*If* Hammond is correct

ENDS
Postscript: would it all be OK legal under EU law?

Hammond's answer:
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Ben Chu
@BenChu_
A no-deal Brexit could happen 'by accident', says Jeremy Hunt. Andy Grice in @Independent says otherwise, arguing Parliament would step in to prevent it...:
...a great deal in the Brexit negotiations hinges on who is right. If the EU side know that Hunt is making empty threats they will obviously ignore it and adopt a hard line....
....of course it's possible that Hunt's rhetoric is more for the consumption of europhobic Tory members than EU negotiators
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Ben Chu
@BenChu_
The argument from @scmallaby here that Italy's growing debt-to-GDP ratio since 1999 is mainly due to profligate state spending and an absence of market discipline is flawed... washingtonpost.com/opinions/italy…
...first, here's the debt-to-GDP picture. Yes, as he says, up significantly in France and Italy. & big contrast with Germany, where its been falling since 2012....:
...but is Italy's debt ratio due to vast budget deficits in Italy, as he implies? Actually, Italy has had lower annual deficits than the rest of the G7 since 2000 (as has France)...:
Read 13 tweets

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Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
EXCLUSIVE

Telegraph obtains leaked recording of briefing Philip Hammond gave business leaders in aftermath of PM's defeat

Read full transcript including how Hammond said 'threat' of no-deal Brexit could be 'off the table' within days & A50 'rescinded'

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
Hammond said the Boles amendment could provide the 'ultimate backstop' to stop a no-deal Brexit.

He told business leaders there is 'large majority' in Commons opposed to no deal 'under any circumstances'

Read full transcript of 51 minute long call here:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
Hammond indicated the Govt is open to talks over staying in Customs Union by saying it will not enter discussions 'waving flags with red lines on them'

He did not rule out the Govt backing the Boles amendment when pressed for assurances by head of Tesco
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Neil Before Zod™
@ThatsMrNeil
Do you ever not lie? A #thread about the cloud of bullshit that permanently resides around @AndrewScheer and the @CPC_HQ. The decade of Conservative economic failure. #cdnmedia #cdnecon
Under the Harper Government, after 2006, economic growth declined in every year after 2010 and averaged only 1.7 per cent per year. In the previous nine years under Chretien/Martin, economic growth averaged 3.4 per cent per year. #cdnpoli #cdnecon
As of January 2015: the unemployment rate was higher than at the end of 2008. Labour force participation rate was lower than in 2008. The youth unemployment rate was higher than at the end of 2008. Full-time and manufacturing jobs fell substantially 2008-2015. #cdnpoli #cdnecon
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P. Sainath
@PSainath_org
Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana - the scheme is the scam. It's not about one private corporation, but over a dozen of them benefit in crores of rupees of public money. #Thread
The scheme's design ensures the siphoning off of over giant sums of public money to private corporations and to a couple of public insurers (in line for privatisation).
In the past three years over Rs. 66,000 crores of state govt. money and central govt money (i.e. public money) have been poured into the PMFBY's operations. (Apart from the premiums paid up by farmers)
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Keeper Of Numbers
@Number_Keeper
The Suffocation of Democracy

By: Christopher R. Browning

THREAD✔
1/
As a historian specializing in the #Holocaust, #Nazi Germany, and #Europe in the era of the world wars, I have been repeatedly asked about the degree to which the current situation in the United States resembles the interwar period and the rise of #fascism in Europe.
2/
I would note several troubling similarities and one important but equally troubling difference.

In the 1920s, the US pursued #isolationism in foreign #policy and rejected participation in international organizations like the League of Nations.
3/
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secret
@jjalmad
J’ai vu pas mal de réactions passer sur le non-lieu rendu au bénéfice de Darmanin concernant la plainte de Mme Spatz-Patterson. nouvelobs.com/justice/201808…
Ce qui fait le plus réagir, c’est l’extrait de la motivation utilisée par le juge d’instruction dans son ordonnance de non-lieu :
(je cite) « Le défaut de consentement ne suffit pas à caractériser le viol. Encore faut-il que le mis en cause ait eu conscience d’imposer un acte sexuel par violence, menace, contrainte ou surprise ».
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CHIKELUE
@Tchaikovskyy
After the 2015 Mafia war, the heads of the Families (Lá Fámiliá) set up the commission (lá cosa nóstrá) to govern & determine their mutual business venture called 'De-Náijá'. They came to a mutual agreement.
Don Bubï was chosen to head the commission as the godfather.

#THREAD
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