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5 Oct, 8 tweets, 5 min read
#earlyvote morning update 10/5

At least 3,350,304 people have voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
MD and WI #earlyvote reports posted. Now at least 3.4 million voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
PA #earlyvote report posted. Still not getting a lot of returned ballots reported yet, e.g., Montgomery County (Philly) reports 0 returned ballots electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
NJ #earlyvote report posted. Starting to see some big numbers roll in. Now at least 3.5 million people have voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Wyoming #earlyvote weekly update posted. Not a large state, so not contributing much to the topline number. More of interest: WY early vote is now at 14.9% of its 2016 total turnout electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Illinois #earlyvote update posted. Now at least 3.6 million people have voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
MI and SC #earlyvote updates in. Michigan's ballot return pace picking up. Now at least 3.8 million people have voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Just to take stock for a second, today's #earlyvote updates total about half a million votes. There is a lot of weekend activity in these updates, but still impressive a month out from Election Day

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More from @ElectProject

Michael McDonald Profile picture
2 Oct
South Dakota #earlyvote update in. At least 2.9 million people have voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
South Dakota early vote is a remarkable 22% of its 2016 general election turnout. You might think that is an indicator of Republican enthusiasm in a red state. But look at the mail ballot return rates. Reg. Dems have a higher return rate than Republicans electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202… Image
The phenomenon of registered Democrats returning their mail ballots at a higher rate than Republicans is happening everywhere. Here are the aggregate statistics across every party registration state I have mail ballot data for electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202… Image
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
2 Oct
#earlyvote morning update 10/2

At least 2.4 million people have voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202… Image
MN weekly and PA daily updates loaded. Now at least 2.6 million voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
WI daily #earlyvote update posted. Just shy of at least 2.7 million voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Read 6 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
1 Oct
According to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement, non-voters' self-reported most frequent reason for abstaining from the 2016 general election was they didn't like the candidates
Despite all of the hand-wringing about the election forecasts, if you're politically knowledgeable and follow the forecasts, you're someone who is already highly likely to vote - if not already voted
My research on voters' perceptions of electoral competition (in House elections) finds people who do not follow politics closely assume elections are competitive by default, and badly misestimate winning probabilities in favor of their candidate jstor.org/stable/4168458…
Read 6 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
1 Oct
#earlyvote morning update 10/1

At least 2 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳

Because morning reports are for yesterday's activity, this means at least 2 million people voted in September electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202… Image
MI and WI #earlyvote daily reports posted. Now at least 2,085,935 voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
MD and PA #earlyvote daily reports posted. Now at least 2.1 million voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
29 Sep
Just when pundits were rushing to explain why Biden was doing poorly in PA, we suddenly get two polls with big leads. Now the PA poll averages look good for him
A mathematician friend tells a story of how he gave a lecture to a large audience. He had everyone flip a coin, and then ask their neighbors what they got. The audience members were then asked to report any strange patterns. One group excited said they had a cluster all heads...
...the same goes with state polling. With so many polls, it is possible that by chance alone we'll see an odd sequence of random draws. Are the two PA polls outliers in the same direction? Are the other polls outliers?
Read 5 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
24 Sep
#earlyvote update 9/24

At least 498,988 people have voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202… Image
I expect once I have the IA and MI updates this afternoon, we'll be over half a million votes cast in the 2020 general election
Hello New Jersey!

With New Jersey's #earlyvote report, we are now over half a million ballots cast in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202… Image
Read 6 tweets

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