There's a thread by @Mitch198509 about $NFIN, a SPAC for a trade finance platform. It uses blockchain and at that point in the presentation I stopped. Forget it, of course.

But I read it again, then the proxy, then I put it in front of a trade finance lawyer. Could be something
Those numbers are projections I pulled from the proxy. Earn-outs on either share price X by certain dates, or 90% of the above EBITDA being achieved.

Doesn't need to get a $NCNO to $MKTX multiple to work from here but we can dream.

HY20: Revenue $24M / Ebitda: $17M / Net $14M
What they do in 1 tweet:

Platform for trade finance. TF is slow, paper-intensive, expensive and inaccessible for little fish: company says $1.5T unmet need with 60% of requests refused. Triterras (the biz NFIN is SPACing) brings KYC pre-qualified borrowers and lenders together.
How they make money in 1 tweet: charge a fee, less than others. It's a marketplace platform so no balance sheet exposure.
Right, so trade finance is a pretty specialist sector and a very old friend is an experienced City trade finance lawyer so I asked him to look over it and see what he thought, does it smell right? Are small players disadvantaged? Is fraud a thing? Blockchain, srsly?
In short his answers: fraud is a thing and pointed to this below. Elsewhere SPAC-nerd/guru @RodriGo_ethe pointed me to this reuters article mentioning commodity fraud, the same $1.5T shortfall figure above and Singapore as a home for peers to Triterras

es.reuters.com/article/idUSKC…
On the company he wrote to say he had no qualms as to their expertise and that their descriptions of trade product were correct, "they definitely know what they're talking about"

Speaking later, he called out specifically this partnership with Marsh as very credible in his eyes
Here is the big problem in his view: the industry is very old school. He pointed out that in the UK at least, trade finance is still governed by an Act of Parliament from 1882. He sees the industry as ripe for change and moves are afoot towards platforms.
According to him, two large banks in UK are trying to do something non-blockchain along these lines and there is interest from others, so Triterras isn't pie in the sky - but for the time being, everyone's wedded to paper and blockchain for the big boys, "a decade away" if ever
This below governs the rules for Letters of Credit, it is called UCP. He explained it to me that they've tried to update it for the modern age - the eUCP. His words: "nobody has ever looked at it"
It's difficult for me to see the word blockchain and maintain any credibility but hopefully this is some useful background information and an intro to a company that, as a very risky punt, could be an interesting one to follow and if they continue to execute, who knows?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with HRouge

HRouge Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @hareng_rouge

29 Sep
Satisfyingly, 's 1996 annual report looks like the intro credits to Saved By The Bell.

It's also how far back I had to go to find when their R&D spending matches what 's is today: 24 years Image
$1,547 was AMD's 2019 R&D expense. I'm looking at this because I've made the mistake both here - in ignoring AMD at $5 - and elsewhere, of assuming that a tech incumbent's huge advantage in spend should necessarily provide some kind of moat. Image
Intel spends in a year what it takes AMD almost a decade to afford Image
Read 4 tweets
20 Sep
Just noticed an oddity about the stocks I hold. Is there a good explanation for this? Image
Image
Results of this study are in and it turns out companies are keen on being at the front of the phone book Image
Read 4 tweets
18 Sep
Simplifying bigly, Trackwise #TWD may still be cheap despite the +50% rise on the news below (£3M FY19 revs + £6.5M post period acquired revs = 4x sales, although not annualising in '20 at this rate)

A very big stretch but this reminds a me a little of Vicor , here's why.
If you've ever seen what lives behind the nose and beneath the cockpit of any modern passenger jet, it looks like this. This is the A320: 70s design and clearly this is not going to fly (yep) in UAVs or indeed be what you're going to see when you pop the hood or bonnet in an EV Image
TWD make these things below - flexible printed circuit boards. Actually, everyone makes them but everyone can only make length limited and circuit limited ones. Better than the mess of cable harnesses in the aircraft but still limited - by length, size, form and circuit number. Image
Read 7 tweets
16 Sep
Corero #CNS have sorted out their website now or at least the malware is a little more subtle - so here briefly is what they do and why I think this may be a pretty interesting UK GARP stock
Just the one tweet on what they do because, computers:

It's on-premises DDoS protection - Corero equipment (powered by $JNPR's MX - important) sits at the edge of the network, inspects and mitigates attacks.

Anything less than 10GB is dealt with locally. More, goes to cloud
Why they're interesting is essentially that there has been quite a sudden step change in their performance.
Read 8 tweets
15 Sep
Try something out? I'll quickly explain what the 3 main parts of this company are - parts in green, red and blue - there are some of the numbers beneath and at the end see if what kind of rough value you think this might be worth. Can cheat - but it's worth it for this one not to Image
First is the exciting part: HCM (Human Capital Management) in the red box.

Grew 67% last year, 32% this year to end of April, so, some Covid. Makes "timeclocks" for biometric access into buildings. Sold as terminals and as-a-service (CLaaS)

I see three main drivers for growth Image
1. Touchless access, which the company is working on
2. Regulatory aspect, explained below
3. You feel like you're entering the bridge of the Starship Enterprise Image
Read 6 tweets
14 Sep
Would like to give a v general overview of a company you may not know - called : I think it may be about to be in the right place at the right time, may have a catalyst and may currently have a hidden inflection. If those turn out to be true, it hasn't been picked up on yet Image
I've had to study IRL what does - essentially it makes components for satellites that allows them to locate themselves (via GPS/time or inertial reference)

90% of revs are from the US Fed'l military spending. Space is the next contested arena. Contract flow is V strong Image
That's the right place / right time part.

The missile at the top is the catalyst - it's a Minuteman III, the ageing US land based ICBM. Northrop Grumman just won the contract to develop the replacement: $13B, rising to $85B and in reality it will be more. Image
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!